College football picks

2017 Alamo Bowl Analyst Pick: Stanford vs TCU

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Valero Alama Bowl: Stanford vs TCU

College football bowl season is upon us and that means good, competitive matchups on the slate for the next week or so. Let's take a closer look at this year's Valero Alamo Bowl featuring No. 13 Stanford vs No. 15 TCU. All eyes will be on Stanford RB Bryce Love and how productive his legs will be after a four-week break.
Vegas Odds
TCU opened as a 2.5-point favorite before settling in a half-point higher in most books. The total moved up a bit since opening at 47.5.
Betting Line: TCU -3
Total: 49
At the time of publication, 51 percent of the public were laying the points and picking TCU.
65 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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Our computer has simulated every Bowl game 10,000 times based on trends, team and player statistics: College Football Bowl Picks

Betting Trend(s)
• TCU is 11-2 straight up (SU) in its last 13 games after a loss.
What to Watch For
Bryce Love's Production: Stanford ranked top-40 in the nation in both offensive and defensive scoring averages, but it was their offense led by Heisman-finalist RB Bryce Love that garnered much of the discussion. He carried the ball 237 times for nearly 1,973 yards this season and 17 TDs; this week's matchup will be largely determined by his production against a TCU defense that's just outside the top-10 nationwide in points allowed per game (17.6).
Love is projected to finish with 130 yards on 19 carries, averaging 1 TD per simulated matchup.
Betting on the Spread: TCU went 6-7 against the spread (ATS) and Stanford went 6-6-1. TCU was 5-5 as a favorite while Stanford was 3-1 as an underdog. Ultimately, as stated above, this game comes down to how successfully TCU is able to contain Stanford's ground game. For example, Washington St. was able to hold Love to just 69 yards and 1 TD on 16 carries; USC even got the hat-tip when they contained him to 125 yards and 1 TD on 22 carries. If TCU can be in some sort of a similar ballpark to those numbers, data suggests TCU takes the matchup.
TCU's defense averages just 0.6 takeaways per sim, indicating the Cardinal more than likely will have fewer than 1 turnover.

Analyst's Pick
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2017 College Football Win Totals - Expert Picks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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2017 NCAA Football Win Totals, and Analyst Picks

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With a new season ready to kick off, we decided to take a look at some of the top Over/Under win total lines and pick Analyst picks for the 2017 College Football Season:

Alabama Crimson Tide O/U wins: 10.5

All eyes will be on sophomore QB Jalen Hurts as the Crimson Tide are projected to do what they do every year -- win double-digit regular season games. They're favored in every scheduled game this season, with ESPN power index indicating they have greater than a 75 percent chance of winning in 10 of the 12 simulated regular season contests.
Analyst's Pick: OVER

Clemson Tigers O/U wins: 9.5
Anyone expecting the Tigers to have a major drop off better think again. No Deshaun Watson, no problem as the roster brings back a slew of offensive and defensive lineman to ensure continuity. QB Kelly Bryant should be just fine, even if all he has to do is manage games and let the defense take over. With guys like Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence, Clemson's defense just might be the best unit on that side of the ball nationwide.

Analyst's Pick: OVER

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Washington Huskies O/U wins: 10.5
Led by QB Jake Browning, the Huskies are projected to have a strong regular season campaign -- despite losing John Ross to the NFL. They have a well-balanced receiving corps, a strong running attack with RB Myles Gaskin, and recruited well in the offseason to make up for some losses on the defensive side of the ball.
Analyst's Pick: OVER

USC Trojans O/U wins: 9.5
With five starters -- three offensive lineman and two receivers -- from last year's starting lineup gone, can QB Sam Darnold keep up his level of play? Analyst's Pick: UNDER

Michigan Wolverines O/U wins: 9.5
This is an interesting one. In the same way other programs are benefited by returning certain starters, the Wolverines should struggle since only two of 13 starters on the defensive side return this season. The roster's just so well coached, though, and given the balance they had last season in the air and on the ground, it's tough to pick against them.

Analyst's Pick: OVER

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2019 NFL Season Previews: AFC - Chiefs and Patriots Still Top

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NFL Season Preview: AFC

In AFC week 1 includes a top level matchup as New England hosts Pittsburgh in the Sunday Night Football game. Accuscore predicts that regaining Super Bowl champion, the Patriots is the favorite in this match, but are they favorite to win the conference for the fourth time in a row?

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AccuScore's NFL Expert Picks (Spreads and Totals) are +11,480 with at least +2,000 returns in each of the last three seasons. In fact, AccuScore's expert NFL Picks (Spreads+Totals+Side Value+Moneyline) have only failed to return a profit in one of the past 10 years and have a net profit of +24,707 over the last decade. Join AccuScore today!

AFC East

Once again, New England is the clear favorite to win the division, and the Patriots are looking for an 11th division title in a row. That is what we call dominance. This time, their division win probability is just over 65% as the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills have improved with their respective second year QBs from the last season. New England has 80% probability to reach the playoffs, and another deep ride during the postseason won’t be a big surprise.
The Bills and the Jets have better chances to playoffs than year ago. This time around, they are predicted to reach eight wins and have around 30% probability for the playoffs. They won’t be ready to challenge New England, but both will benefit the downward spiral of the Miami Dolphins. Given recent trades, the Dolphins appear to be tanking this season.

Miami appears to have thrown in the towel before a single snap has been played. They have lost their top offensive linemen and the QB position is a fight between Ryan Fitzgerald, who starts for the the 6th team in his career, and John Rosen, who left Arizona after only one season. The most probable outcome is around 5 to 6 wins for rookie head coach Brian Flores, but fewer wins would not be shocking.

All Week 1 NFL Expert Picks: Spreads & Totals

AFC North

Traditionally, the AFC North has been one of the toughest divisions at the top, along with featuring the bottom of the barrel. The Cleveland Browns, however, took a big step forward last season. After being a laughing stock for so long, the Browns may even challenge for the division title in the future, but right now, it looks like Pittsburgh will return to the top after last season’s second place finish. The Steelers have over 70% probability to reach playoffs and over 60% chances for their third divisional title in four years.

The Browns have generated good vibes around them and have added playmakers like Odell Beckham Jr. to their roster. This will give them a 30% chance to reach the playoffs, a feat they have not accomplished since 2002. A great deal depends on how well last year’s draft pick, Baker Mayfield, develops, but the team is clearly going in the right direction.

Division winners from the last year, the Baltimore Ravens will face a new era, as their Super Bowl winning QB Joe Flacco moved to Denver after 11 years in Baltimore. Mobile new QB Lamar Jackson showed some flashes last year, but it looks like it will be a difficult task to repeat last year’s division title, as simulations project only 16% probability for the playoffs and even less for the NFC North title.

The Cincinnati Bengals have won 6 or 7 games during the last three years. Their projected number of wins will again hover between these numbers, and probability to see the postseason is under 15%. This year is clearly a rebuilding year for the Bengals, but Cincinnati is trying to find some of the key components for the rebuild.

AFC South

The sudden retirement of Andrew Luck has been the biggest news leading into the new NFL season, and has especially had an impact on the AFC North. The Indianapolis Colts were the favorite to win the division, but now they are predicted to finish second in the division, which may be higher than most external projections. After recent trades and the Luck retirement, Houston now highest probability to win the division, but that is only 35%.

Despite the last minute QB change, Indianapolis is not far behind Houston. The Colts have just under 27% chance to win the division. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars are stalking both teams. They have 29% probability to ensure a postseason berth by winning this division.

The Tennessee Titans won 9 games last season, but at that time, it still wasn’t enough to the playoffs. Accuscore predicts them to get 7 wins this time and miss the playoffs for the second year in a row. Tennessee is a bit behind in the playoff probability and their chances to win the division is around 10%.

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AFC West

The Kansas City Chiefs have improved step by step during the last few years. They have won the division three years in a row, and this time, they have over 61% probability to repeat as division champs. Their chances to reach the playoffs are one of the highest in the league: 81.5%.

The Los Angeles Chargers were another playoff team last season. Their star running back Melvin Gordon has his own contract disputes and may sit out more than just the preseason. Simulations predict that they’ll reach the playoffs this time, as well, with nine wins. However, they are clearly second to the Chiefs, with the Chargers only given a 27% chance to win the division.

The Denver Broncos have a new head coach in Vic Fangio and a new QB in Joe Flacco. This should be an improvement from 6 wins a year ago, but their chances of seeing the playoffs are only 24%. With a few surprises and Joe Flacco turning back the clock, the Broncos might have a shot at competing for the last wild card spot.

The Oakland Raiders will play their last season in Oakland before moving to Las Vegas. They have stacked high value veterans like Antonio Brown and Clay Matthews, but based on simulations, it's not going to make much of a difference. Oakland’s chances for the playoffs are under 10%. It would be, frankly, shocking if the Raiders are challenging for the AFC West.

Given the Chiefs and Patriots are the clear cream of the AFC crop, the conference is not seeing too much change at the upper crust. A Kansas City and New England rematch for the Super Bowl would not be surprising, and Pittsburgh is clearly chosen as the third horse in that race. The AFC South winner, however, is difficult to determine. Houston looks to be in the best position to take the division. The Chargers will be favorite to the wild card, and the Jaguars, Jets and Bills should be in the mix for the last wildcard spot in the AFC.

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Alabama vs Florida State: Analyst Picks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Alabama vs Florida State: Analyst Preview

Date: Saturday, Sept. 2 @ 8 P.M. (Eastern)
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium -- Atlanta
This weekend's Alabama-Florida State matchup in Atlanta has the whole country talking about college football, anticipating quite the battle in Atlanta Saturday night. The Crimson Tide are 7-point favorites at the time of publication, with the total set at 50 or 50.5, depending on when and where you get the line.

All of AccuScore’s Week 1: College Football picks

What to Watch For
This matchup comes down to whether or not Florida State QB Deondre Francois can find the weapons he has on the field. No more Dalvin Cook, and all the starting receivers from last year are gone. It'll be up to someone like WR Nyqwan Murray to make some big-time plays, in just the first week of the college football season.
The Tide defense can be a bit suspect, at least relatively when comparing the unit to the talent they had in the past two years. If Florida State ends up winning this game, it'll be directly tied to a questionable Alabama secondary that -- on paper -- should struggle against 4-and-5-WR sets.
Vegas vs AccuScore
Whereas Vegas odds have Alabama favored by a TD, AccuScore's sims have the spread at at a 10-point margin. Whenever the sim spread is greater than that set in Vegas, the data is indicating a pick on the favorite to cover.
Similar situation with the total in this matchup as AccuScore has the total about 5 points greater than what's set in Vegas -- indicating a pick on the OVER.
In terms of value, the pick on the OVER seems to offer more than 'Bama covering. Vegas odds suggest there's about a 52-to-53 percent chance of Alabama covering the 7-point spread. They cover that spread in about 54 percent of sims.
The OVER is listed at -115 at the time of publication, suggesting about a 53.5 percent chance of happening. The total score in sims, though, goes OVER the total set in Vegas in over 59 percent of sims, providing more value than the odds in Vegas indicate.

Betting Trends
• The total has gone OVER in 17 of FSU's last 24 games as an underdog.
• Alabama is 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine Week 1 games.
Analyst's Pick
Sims project a high-scoring affairs this time around, and Alabama's defense projects to have a better performance than does the FSU offense. QB Deondre Francois struggled last year and gets to kick the 2017 season off with quite the opponent.
'Bama covering and the OVER.

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Big 10 Football Predictions: College Football 2018 Previews

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Written by Rohit Ghosh

College Football Previews 2018: Big 10 Predictions

The Winner: The Buckeyes have lost just eight regular season games in Urban Meyer's six seasons as head coach -- things don't project to change anytime soon. They have a tough road matchup at TCU this year, but the OVER on 10.5 wins is still a safe pick. Ohio State averages close to 12 wins in AccuScore sims.
The OVER: This one somewhat depends on whether you got Michigan at 8.5 or 9 wins. It's going to be close but AccuScore is leaning on the OVER with Michigan averaging 9.24 wins in simulations. They kick off the season in South Bend, and have to get some tough wins on the road vs Michigan State and Ohio State, but the Wolverines have the talent and leadership to creep towards a 10-win season.

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The UNDER: We're going with the UNDER on Penn State (9.5). They have some tough matchups vs Pitt, Iowa and Wisconcin that's nudging our data towards taking the UNDER. Penn State averages fewer than 8.5 wins in AccuScore simulations.
Stay Away: Nebraska -- whose total is set at 6.5 -- should be better with Scott Frost leading the way. Their schedule, however, isn't as favorable with road trips to Michigan State and Colorado. There's just not enough confidence in this team getting to 7 wins.

All of AccuScore's College Football Picks and Forecasts

Other Previews:
ACC Football Preview
PAC 12 Football Preview
Big 12 Football Preview
SEC Football Preview

College Football Analyst Pick: Washington State vs CAL

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NCAA Friday - Washington State vs Cal

Friday night lights feature some Pac-12 action this week as the Cal Golden Bears host No. 8 Washington State at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, CA. Heading into this matchup, WAZZU is 6-0 straight up (SU) and does have a 4-0 against the spread (ATS) record of late. Cal, on the other hand, has dropped the last two ATS and three straight overall.
Date: Friday, 10/13 at 7:30 PM Pacific

Vegas Odds
Spread: Washington State -15
Total: 54

Most Thursday night games don't have a lot of movement from the opening lines, and this matchup sticks to that trend. Cal opened as a 14.5-point home 'dog, and they're currently at +15 at the time of publication The total has moved up 1 point from 53 to 54.
Everything about this game points to a trap for the public. Washington St. has a whole lot of public interest following their recent victory over USC. On the other hand, Cal is coming off some conference losses. The public should be all over WAZZU, considering the lack of offense from this Cal roster.
Betting on the Total
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington State's last 5 games on the road.

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What to Watch For
Through six games this seas, WAZZU's defense has been well above average, holding the opposition to 275 total yards per game. That's just barely 4.5 yards per play.
More importantly, they're fifth in the nation in forced turnovers with 15 on the season.
WAZZU is projected to force close to 2 TOs Friday night, with nearly three times the probability of a Cal INT than a fumble.
Analyst's Pick
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College Football Friday: Washington vs Stanford - Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Washington vs Stanford: Analyst Pick

Washington will look to keep pace with Washington State in the national rankings as they head to Stanford for a matchup with the Cardinal. The college football playoffs are still within reach and the Huskies are on the hunt. Stanford's a 6-point home underdog with the total set at 45.
Vegas Odds
Both the spread and total have seen plenty of movement over the past few days. Washington opened up as 8.5-point favorites before settling down to -6. The total dropped to 45 after opening at 50.
Betting Line: Washington -6
Total: 45

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At the time of publication, about 59 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Huskies. 64 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.
Betting Trends
- Washington is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 6 games.
- Washington is 8-1 straight up (SU) in its last 9 games.
- WWashington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs Stanford.
What to Watch For

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Huskies QB Jake Browning is having another strong season, despite the multiple injuries to his weapons downfield. He's completing about 68 percent of his throws and has a 16:5 TD-to-INT ratio. Under his leadership, Washington averages 6.4 yards per play this season.
Browning is projected to finish with 187 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.
Washington's defense has been its calling card all year. The Huskies are giving up just 11.1 points per game, allowing just 3.7 yards per play. They haven't allowed more than 23 points in a game all season, and gave up 13 in their sole loss this season.
The defense is projected to force 1 turnover Friday night. Stanford is projected to score 22-to-23 points.

Analyst's Pick

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College Football: Week 3 Analyst Picks - Ole Miss vs Cal

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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College Football Week 3: Ole Miss vs Cal - Analyst

We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore simulation data are on different sides of the money line and that's exactly the kind of situation we've got in this weekend's Ole Miss-Cali matchup at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, CA. The Rebels are 4-point road favorites with the total set at 72.

Other Week 3 Analyst Picks: South Florida vs Illinois

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sim Data
Whereas Vegas has Ole Miss as the slight favorites, AccuScore sim data actually has the Golden Bears as the slight favorites. Cal's actually getting +160 on the money line, indicating about a 38-to-39 percent chance of happening. Our sim data actually has the home team favored by a point; Cal wins just a shade over 50 percent of sims.
AccuScore sim data would have listed the Bears at at EVEN or -105 odds, indicating a whole lot of value on the +160 as well the +4 spread.

Top AccuScore Betting Trends

All AccuScore Picks vs the Spread
• SEC Team vs Non-SEC Team: 11-5, 69% +550
• Pac-12 Team vs Non-Pac12 Team: 11-5, 69% +550
See all of AccuScore's Week 3 College Football picks
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Non-AccuScore Betting Trends: Ole Miss vs CAL

• Ole Miss is 2-0 against the over/under this season.
• Ole Miss Rebels 0-2 against the spread (ATS) this season.
• Cal is 1-1 against the over/under this season.
• Cal is 1-1 against the spread this season.
What to Watch For

California QB Ross Bowers had a fairly quiet Week 2 performance at Weber State, going for 200 yards, no TDs, after a strong Week 1 outing at North Carolina with four TDs. He's projected to finish Saturday's matchup with close to 350 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT.
This'll be a good test for Cal's new offensive coordinator, Beau Baldwin. According to a report from SB Nation, the Bears rank No. 25 in the nation in rushing IsoPPP -- an explosiveness metric, measure the magnitude of success plays. A successful play occurs when you gain: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
Cal's defense will have to be have a much better performance this week, though. Weber State last week put up 571 total yards of offense, but finished with just 20 points due to three fumbles.
Free Analyst's Pick

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Analyst Says: It's tough to go against a three-star hot trend pick. Taking the points and going with the home 'dogs here.

College Football: Week 3 Analyst Picks: 22. South Florida vs Illinois

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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College Football: Week 3 Analyst Picks

The line opened with South Florida as 14.5-point favorites, moving a good few points up over the week. Compared to the opening line, AccuScore data had the home team as even heavier favorites, listing the Bulls as 18-point favorites to open. The line in Vegas has since moved closer to AccuScore data.

South Florida covers a 17.5-point spread in just 51.3 percent of simulations; they covered the 14.5-point spread in close to 56 percent of simulations.
Simply put, there's not a whole lot of value in laying the points for the home side to cover.

Top NCAA AccuScore Trends: Week 3

• Sim O/U difference vs Vegas: 3-3.5
- All Picks(Spreads + Totals): 35-16-1, 68% +1,740
-Moneyline Picks: 23-3, 88%

• All Close Games (-4 to +4 spread)
- All Picks (Spreads + Totals): 24-15, 61% +750

Top AccuScore Trends: Spread Picks
• SEC Team vs Non-SEC Team: 11-5, 69% +550
• Pac-12 Team vs Non-Pac12 Team: 11-5, 69% +550

Top AccuScore Trends: Over/Under Picks
• MWC Team vs Non-MWC Team: 13-3, 81% +970

Top AccuScore Trends: Moneyline Picks
• AAC Team vs Non-AAC Team: 10-1, 91%

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Top South Florida vs Illinois: Betting Trends

• Illinois is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
• Illinois is 6-15 straight up (SU) in its last 21 games.
• Illinois is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games on the road.
• Illinois is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road.
• South Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
• South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 11 of South Florida's last 16 games

Public Perception
At the time of publication, close to 70 percent of the public was on the road team to cover a 17.5-point spread. It might be a good idea to keep monitoring how much of the public is on Illinois.

Analyst's Pick

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Revealed After Game
South Florida is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home. We'll focus on that when picking this matchup.
The two sides have opposite styles of play, one focusing on offense and the other on defense, but South Florida just is better prepared for this matchup. They've already faced some varied styles this season and have more talent to adapt over the course of a game. It's not an easy play, but we'll lay the points and take the home side.

Free College Football Analyst Pick: Army vs Navy

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Army vs Navy: College Football Free Analyst Pick

Can Army win this matchup two seasons in a row? After not winning a matchup against Navy in 14 years, Army finally notched a win last year. They head into this weekend's matchup as slight underdogs, understandable when you realize Navy has won 17-of-20 matchups since 1996.
Vegas Odds
The spread has held constant since opening, but the total dropped about five points since opening at 51.5.
Betting Line: Navy -3
Total: 46
At the time of publication, close to 55 percent of the public were laying the points and taking Navy.
54-plus percent of the action on the total has been on the UNDER.

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*includes full free forecast of Army vs Navy

Betting Trends
- Army is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last 3 games vs Navy.
- The OVER is 5-1 in Army's last six games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

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What to Watch For
Dominating the Ground Game: Navy is really, really good at running the ball -- especially at home. They're No. 1 in the country in rushing offense at home, going against a defense that ranks No. 76 in run defense on the road. On average, Army gives up 184.2 yards per game on the ground on the road.
Zach Abey is projected to lead the way for Navy with close to 110 yards on 20 carries. He averages 1-plus TDs per sim, so expect to see him in the end zone. Malcolm Perry is projected to finish with a productive 85 yards on 9-to-10 carries, averaging 1 TD per sim.
Black Knights Defense: Army is only giving up 21 points per game this season -- one of the more consistent defenses in the country. They did give up 52 to Texas, but that seems to be an outlier looking at the season as a whole.
Navy is projected to put up 28 points this weekend.
FREE Analyst's Pick
The OVER.
The OVER is 5-2 in Army's last seven games.

GUIDE to NFL and College Football Picks

Understanding AccuScore’s Football Simulations

Been away for a while? AccuScore may looks a bit different. Take a deep breath. The simulations haven’t changed, but the look has over the years. It's been about a decade since we first start, so we’re going to walk you through how to find your football picks and also how to read the simulations.

There are two views: The Graph View and the Grid View (better for college football).

The Graph View

Side Value and Moneyline

As this was a pretty big change, it took us a moment to get everything into the graph view, but now we have it. Let’s take a look at an example from NCAA Football below.

In the example above, there is a 4-star moneyline pick and 2-star side value pick. The Moneyline pick is clearly Arkansas, represented by the outside circle. Also, the 88.8% of simulations resulted in Arkansas winning, which written below the team’s symbol. This is the moneyline pick. AccuScore’s simulations are represented by the outside circle.

The side value, however, is represented by the inside circle, and as you can see in the image above, the odds only give Louisiana Tech a 5.69% chance of winning versus AccuScore giving Louisiana Tech an 11% chance of winning, so there is side value on picking the underdog here.

Over/Under and Point Spread Picks

In the illustration below, you’ll find a green arrow and a red arrow. The green arrow is AccuScore’s Totals pick. In the example below, AccuScore is picking the Over in this game, which is a two-star pick. Below the stars, the “52” represents the line, so AccuScore is saying this game will go OVER 52. The 58.4% shows you what percentage of simulations went OVER 52. If you click on the “free picks” or “more info” box, you can play around with slider tools to adjust the lines if you’re getting a different line.

The red arrow shows AccuScore’s pick against the spread. In this game, the pick is LA Tech +25, which is a two-star pick. Again, the 56% represents the percentage of simulations that saw LA Tech losing by 25 or fewer points or winning outright.

Grid View

To get to the grid view, take a look at the red arrow above and click on the three lines. The graph symbol allows you to switch back to the graph view. Due to the number of games in College Football, the grid view is now the default view. Also, you can type in team abbreviations in the search box (green arrow) and find any game you’re looking for faster. The graph view is the default view for most other sports, but switching to the grid view is the same process for every sport.

Understanding the Grid View

Let’s use the same example we’ve been using and the same game that’s listed in the above illustration of the grid view: LATech vs Arkansas

Let’s go column by column to understand what everything means in the grid view. Acc Sim% simply lists AccuScore’s simulation calculations, which list Arkansas as an 88% favorite. Conversely, Louisiana Tech only won 11% of simulations. That’s easy enough.

Odds% is AccuScore converting the public odds into a percentage. Before you freak out and think something is wrong, the percentage is over 100% because bookies add a bit of juice to their end. While we removed that juice in the past and converted odds to be out of 100%, leaving the juice in actually allows for a clearer look at true side value because it doesn’t arbitrarily push down Vegas’ odds as a percentage.

In this case, Vegas oddsmakers are saying there is a 97.22% chance of Arkansas winning and only a 5.69% chance of LATech winning. Looking at it side-by-side with AccuScore’s Sim%, the side value is clearly on LATech.

The next column is “PS” and “ACC PS.” The top number is the point spread set by bookmakers, which is Arkansas -25. Below it, AccuScore lists the point spread line we believe it should be: Arkansas -21. Since Vegas is overinflating Arkansas, the point spread pick is Louisiana Tech.

Next, we have the “OU” and “Acc OU” column. Similar to the last column, the first number (52) is the Over/Under line set by Vegas oddsmakers. The number below it is the Over/Under line AccuScore calculated. Since AccuScore’s line is higher than the public odds, the pick is the OVER.

The final three columns are ML, SV, and Total, and all of them simply list the star-rated picks. As the season continues, we will have more trends and 3 and 4-star picks. Using the arrows, members can sort games by star-ratings and instantly find all games offering 4-star totals picks.

Note: AccuScore still offers the ability to change lines and change spreads by clicking on the team names in the grid view. Also, you can see written previews for every game, top trends and player projections.

Iowa vs Michigan State Predictions: Analyst Preview

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NCAA Football Saturday - Iowa vs Mich. St.

All Picks, All Games: All AccuScore Week 5 College Football Picks

Michigan State's listed as a fairly heavy favorite this weekend as they get set to host Iowa. Vegas has them favored by 3.5 points and listed at -180 on the money line. Our simulation data, though, has a different take on this matchup.
Vegas Odds & AccuScore Sim Data
The -180 money line odds for the Spartans indicate a 64.2 percent chance of winning. They're fairly heavy home favorites. The sim data has Iowa as slight favorites, winning just a shade over 50 percent of the sims. The simulations would have listed the Spartans at about EVEN, suggesting bettors to stay away from the home side.
Iowa, on the other hand, has a lot of value from the sims. They're getting +150 on the money line in most books, indicating a 40 percent chance of winning. They win over 50 percent of sims, though, providing a whole lot of value on that +150.

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Betting Trends
• Iowa is 6-2 straight up (SU) in its last 8 games.
• Iowa is 17-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 24 games on the road.
• Iowa is 5-1 SU in its last six games on the road.
• Iowa is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs Michigan State.
• Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on the road vs Michigan State.
What to Watch For
The Spartans can really spread the ball around, but also haven't faced a defense like that of Iowa's -- especially in terms of stopping the ground attack. As a result, Michigan St. QB Brian Lewerke will have to firing on all cylinders to avoid the upset.
Lewerke is projected to finish with 241 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, along with 39 rushing yards.
Hawkeyes running back Akrum Wadley should have a big game this weekend, with the way Michigan State struggled to contain the ground attack against Notre Dame. The Spartans' LBs just don't have the talent to match up with Wadley's speed. Watch for him to get plenty of opportunities early.
Wadley is projected to finish with 56 yards on 9 carries, along with 20 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Altogether in sims, he averages 0.8 TDs per matchup.

Ohio State vs Michigan: Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Ohio State vs Michigan: Analyst Pick & Preview

As was expected, this Saturday's Ohio State-Michigan matchup got plenty of action this week with the majority of discussion focusing on what chances the Buckeyes have at a playoff berth. The Wolverines, on the other hand, have no shot at the championship, but will relish any opportunity to spoil a rival's season.

Vegas Odds
The game actually opened as a pick 'em before the Vikings settled in as 3-point favorites. The total hasn't seen much movement since opening at 45.5.

Betting Line: Ohio State -12
Total: 50

AccuScore has picks for every major Division 1-A game:Saturday's College Football Picks

At the time of publication, about 78 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Ohio State.

61 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
-The total has gone OVER in seven of Ohio State's last eight games.
-The total has gone OVER in four of Ohio State's last five games on the road.
-The total has gone OVER in six of Ohio State's last eight games on the road vs Michigan.

What to Watch For
Michigan has had QB issues all season. Brandon Peters is projected to be the starter heading into this Saturday's matchup, currently leading the team in completion percentage (57.8). He has 4 TDs to zero INTs on the season, and will more than likely look for the run game to carry much of the load. The Wolverines have averaged about 4.6 yards per carry.

Peters is projected to finish with 183 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He averages about the same number of TDs per sim (1.0) as he does INTs (0.9).

The three main Michigan backs average about 5.03 yards per carry in sims.

Ohio State is clearly the better team -- averaging 546 total yards and 45 points per game heading into this matchup. JT Barrett led the way last week over Illinois, finishing with 141 passing yards and 2 TDs in the 52-14 win at home. Barrett owns a 32-to-7 TD:INT ratio, completing about 66.9 percent of his passes. He’s also the team’s second-leading rusher with 605 yards on 115 carries.

Barrett is projected to finish with 183 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He's projected to also add 48 rushing yards on 10 carries, averaging 0.5 rushing TDs per sim (compared to his 1.7 passing TDs per sim).

Analyst's Pick

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Analyst Pick: The OVER.
The OVER is 6-2 in Michigan's last eight games as an underdog. Also, the OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two sides in Michigan.

Oklahoma State vs USA: Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Oklahoma State vs. University of South Alabama

The NCAA Football season marches forward as we head into Week 2 action with No. 10 Oklahoma Sate hitting the road for a matchup with University of South Alabama Friday night. It's a non-conference matchup that marks the very first time these two sides have met. South Alabama heads into this matchup after a 47-27 road loss at Ole Miss last Saturday; Oklahoma State dominated Tulsa 59-24 in their season opener.

All of AccuScore’s latest College Football picks

Oklahoma State is a 26.5-point favorite with the total set at 66.5. The spread opened at 27.5 points with the total at 64.5.
What to Watch For
South Alabama may have lost its season opener on the road, but going back to last season, they are 3-0 straight up and against the spread at home. QB Cole Garvin -- on average -- completes about 61 percent of his throws, finishing week 1 with 1 TD and no INTs. Garvin is projected to finish with 242 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He averages almost as many INTs per sim (0.9) as he does TDs (1.1).
Oklahoma State's ground game is a monster to compete against, averaging over 330 yards per game. In Week 2, keep an eye on RB Justice Hall who finished Week 1 with 132 yards and 1 TD. He's projected to finish this week's matchup with 101 yards on 16 carries and 1 TD. He averages 1.2 TDs per sim, tied for the highest average among all players in this matchup other than Cowboys WR James Washington.

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Vegas Odds vs AccuSore Simulation Data
Whereas most books in Vegas have Oklahoma State favored by about 28 points -- give or take a half-point to a full point depending on when and where -- AccuScore sims actually have that spread 6 points lower. OK State is favored by 'just' 22 in the simulations, indicating a pick on the Jaguars to cover the 27-to-28-point spread. University of South Alabama covers a 28-point spread in about 59 percent of simulations, a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
The total doesn't have the same three-star hot trend alert assigned to it, but AccuScore sim data does have the total 2.5 points lower than what's listed in Vegas. The combined score stays below the total set in Vegas (66.5) in close to 56 percent of simulations, a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
Top Betting Trend
-The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma State's last 7 games on the road.

Analyst's Pick

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It's a Friday night matchup and college football doesn't exactly always go as planned on weeknights. South Alabama has a history of not getting blown out and Week 1 was proof of that -- they held their own against Ole Miss on the road and actually finished the game with more first downs than the opponent. Just seems like way too many points to lay on the road.
The Jags covering, with the UNDER.

PAC 12 Football Predictions: College Football 2018 Previews

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College Football Previews 2018: PAC 12 Predictions

Written by Rohit Ghosh

The Winner: : AccuScore sim data projects Washington to sit atop the Pac 12 this season, averaging 10-to-11 wins in simulations. They have a tough opener vs Auburn and some potentially problematic road matchups with Utah, UCLA, Oregon and Washington State, but they should still play well enough to win the conference easily.
The OVER: : No one is expecting Herm Edwards to turn things around right away for the Sun Devils, but AccuScore sims do suggest Arizona State finish with more than five wins this season. They average 5.5 wins in AccuScore sims.

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The UNDER:: The best bet for the UNDER in the Pac-12 is Stanford (8.5 wins). AccuScore sim data projects the Cardinal win fewer than eight games this year. They have a tough conference, hit the road for a matchup with Notre Dame, not to mention an opener with the under-rated San Diego State.
Stay Away:: Most media outlets are expecting UCLA to hit the OVER on 5/5.5 wins, considering Chip Kelly's track record. He's not returning to the spotlight to lose seven-plus games, right? It will probably come down to the games vs Utah and Oregon, but AccuScore sim data suggests a lean on the UNDER for the Bruins. The road matchup vs Oklahoma doesn't help either, at least in the simulations.

Other Previews:
ACC Football Preview
Big 10 Football Preview
Big 12 Football Preview
SEC Football Preview

Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech Expert Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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College Football - Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech

Free AccuScore Forecast of the Week

Georgia Tech hosts Pittsburgh this Saturday as 9.5-point favorites, with the total set at 56. The Yellow Jackets heads into the matchup well rested after last week's game at University of Central Florida was cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. Georgia Tech has come up short the last two times these two sides met.

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What to Watch For
Pittsburgh's No. 1 weapon in this matchup is Georgia Tech's proclivity to turn the ball over. Georgia Tech -- this season -- has recorded six fumbles in two games. They recover the majority of their own fumbles, but the lack of discipline leaves the door open for the opponent week in and week out.
The Pittsburgh defense averages fewer than one forced turnover per sim in this matchup.

Betting Trends
• Pittsburgh is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games following a straight up (SU) loss of 20 points or more.
• The OVER is 8-0 in Pittsburgh's last eight conference games.
• Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Georgia Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games on grass.
• Georgia Tech is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win.
Analyst's Pick

The line opened a couple points lower at -7.5 for Georgia Tech. If you got it then, the data suggests laying the points and taking the home side. Georgia Tech covers a 7.5-point spread in about 52-to-53 percent of simulated matchups, on par with the odds offered in Vegas on them to cover.
Simply put, there's not a whole lot of value picking against the spread (ATS) this matchup.
The total opened at 59 before settling a few points lower at 56. The sim data actually had the total a whole 5 points above the total listed in Vegas, indicating a pick on the OVER. The OVER is a 1-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
The total combined score goes OVER 56 in 60 percent of simulated matchups.

If you got the line when it opened, lay the points and take the OVER. If the line is closer to 9.5, stay away and just take the OVER.

San Jose State v South Florida: Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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South Florida at San Jose State: Preview

South Florida travels across the country this Saturday to match up with San Jose State as the NCAA Football season officially kicks off. The Bulls enter the matchup as a 20-to-21-point road favorite, with the total set at 68.5.
South Florida heads into this Week 1 contest having won 18-of-21 games overall going back to last season. They bring back 16 starters and are ready to prove they're deserving of their ranking. San Jose State, on the other hand, enters this season with a new coach in Brent Brennan looking to move past a 4-8 2016 season.
What to Watch For
South Florida marches down the field to the beat of QB Quinton Flowers and he's projected to build off an impressive 2016 season. He's one of the best dual-threats in the nation, finishing 2016 with 2,812 passing yards and 1,530 rushing yards. He had 24 passing TDs and just seven picks to go along with 18 rushing TDs. Flowers lost his main receiving weapon in Rodney Adams, but still can rely on RB D'Ernest Johnson to carry some of the load.
Any chance San Jose St. has at keeping this game close depends largely on the South Florida defense struggling out of the gates in 2017. That unit was very inconsistent last year, allowing over 38 points per contest in the last six games of the season. That average was below 26 in the first seven games of the 2016 season. With Charlie Strong leading the way, all signs point to South Florida being a much better defensive unit this year compared to last -- they're returning 15 of their top 20 tacklers from the year before.
Betting Trends
• South Florida is 15-7 against the spread [ATS] in its last 22 games going back the last two seasons.
• South Florida is 5-0 straight up [SU] in its last 5 games going back to last season.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of South Florida’s last 7 games going back to last season.
• San Jose State is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games going back to last season.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State’s last 7 games going back to last season.
Projected Score & Analyst's Pick
The average score after 10,000 AccuScore sims is 49-19.
South Florida's looking to kick off the season firing on all cylinders. And given the number of starters they're bringing back, I expect South Florida to dominate both sides of the ball, with the offense having some hiccups here and there.
I'll take the Bulls to cover, and the UNDER.

SEC Football Predictions: College Football 2018 Previews

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College Football Previews 2018: SEC Predictions

Written by Rohit Ghosh

The Winner:Could we have a situation where both Alabama (11 wins) and Georgia (10.5 wins) get to the SEC championship without a loss? More than a fighting chance for that to happen, considering the talent these programs have, but AccuScore sim data suggets Alabama gets to above 11 wins, with Georgia around 10. The data would actually suggest the UNDERs for Georgia.
The UNDER x2:We've got two suggestions here in lieu of an OVER pick. AccuScore sim data suggests taking the UNDER on Tennessee's win total, with the Vols averaging around 4-to-5 wins this season.
Also, there's a heavy lean on the UNDER for Mississippi State's win total (8). They win closer to five-to-six games in simulations, suggesting some value on the pick. They have a tough road matchup at Kansas State in early September, with even tougher road matchups later in the calendar vs LSU, Alabama, Aurburn and Texas A&M.

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Stay Away: People are expecting Joe Burrow to make a big difference for LSU this season, but AccuScore sim data just isn't as confident. Their total is set at 7 wins and they win closer to 6 in simulations. They have a tough schedule in September with Miami and Auburn on the slate, followed by matchups with Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama -- things can go either way so we'd suggest staying away.

Other Previews:
ACC Football Preview
Big 10 Football Preview
Big 12 Football Preview
PAC 12 Football Preview

Troy at Arkansas State: College Football Preview & Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Troy at Arkansas State: College Football Saturday Pick

There's plenty of NCAA Football action this Saturday and we've got a play that's going against Vegas odds. Arkansas State hosts the Trojans of Troy Saturday in probably what's the most evenly-matched pairing of the day.
Vegas Odds
Arkansas opened as 1-point favorites before the game settled as a pick 'em in most books; some books, however actually had the line move to the other side with Troy as a half-point to 1-point favorite.
The total opened at 58.5 before settling a bit higher at 59.5/60.
Betting Line: Pick 'Em
Total: 60
At the time of publication, public action on the spread was evenly split 50-50.
76 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

AccuScore has picks for every major Division 1-A game:Saturday's College Football Picks

Betting Trends
- Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
- Troy is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Troy's last 6 games when playing Arkansas State
What to Watch For
Arkansas State's 14th-ranked offense is led by Justice Hansen's 32 TD passes -- an offense that does a remarkable job of spreading the ball around. They've got depth and experience in their receivers, but it just might be TE Blake Mack who shines the brightest. He has caught 40 passes to go along with 7 TDs this season.
Hansen is projected to finish with 257 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.
Mack averages 0.3 TDs per sim, to go along with 38 yards on 3 receptions.
Troy has run for 1,758 yards as a unit this season, putting them 84th in the nation. They average about 5.1 yards per unit.
Jordan Chunn is projected to lead the way on the ground for Troy on Saturday. He averages 110 yards and 1+ TDs per sim.

Analyst's Pick

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USC at Washington State Predictions: Analyst Preview

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NCAA Football Friday: USC at Washington State

More Picks, More Games: All of AccuScore's Week 5 College Football Picks

The USC Trojans have a tricky matchup this Friday when they head up to Pullman against Washington State. USC's favored by 4.5 points at the time of publication, but AccuScore sim data is suggesting the odds in Vegas are off.
We're always interested when AccuScore sim data and Vegas odds differ on the favorite -- and that's exactly the situation we've got here. Let's take a closer look.
Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data
While Vegas has the visiting Trojans as 4.5-point favorites, the AccuScore sim data actually has the spread a whole 5.5 points swinging the other way.
Our data has Washington State as a 1-point favorite, providing a whole lot of value on the home 'dog. The Cougars cover a 4.5-point spread in close to 59 percent of simulations. Washigton state covering the spread is being offered in most books at -110, which indicates a 52-to-53 percent chance of happening. With them covering the spread in 59 percent of simulations, our sim data would have listed the odds to cover at -145, indicating some value on the -110.
The Cougars are getting +170 on the money line, indicating a 37 percent of winning.
AccuScore sim data has Washington St. winning about 51 percent of sims; the data would have listed their money line odds at +105, providing a whole lot of value to the +170 listed in most books.
Betting Trends
• Washington State is 8-2 straight up (SU) in its last ten games against Pac-12 competition.
• USC is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
• Washington State is 4-1 SU in its last five games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of USC's six games.

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What to Watch For
Washington State has been impressive on defense this year, but USC of course is a whole different beast. They lost middle linebacker Peyton Pelluer to an injury, and that might be the biggest x-factor in this matchup. The senior had 194 total tackles in just the last two seasons, and was a big-time factor in containing the opposition's ground attack.
The Cougars' defense averages 1 forced turnover per simulated matchup.
Trojans QB Sam Darnold threw for 22 TDs to 4 INTs vs Pac-12 opponents last season.
Darnold is projected to finish with 280 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in Friday night's matchup.