Written by Rohit Ghosh
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South Florida at San Jose State: Preview
South Florida travels across the country this Saturday to match up with San Jose State as the NCAA Football season officially kicks off. The Bulls enter the matchup as a 20-to-21-point road favorite, with the total set at 68.5.
South Florida heads into this Week 1 contest having won 18-of-21 games overall going back to last season. They bring back 16 starters and are ready to prove they're deserving of their ranking. San Jose State, on the other hand, enters this season with a new coach in Brent Brennan looking to move past a 4-8 2016 season.
What to Watch For
South Florida marches down the field to the beat of QB Quinton Flowers and he's projected to build off an impressive 2016 season. He's one of the best dual-threats in the nation, finishing 2016 with 2,812 passing yards and 1,530 rushing yards. He had 24 passing TDs and just seven picks to go along with 18 rushing TDs. Flowers lost his main receiving weapon in Rodney Adams, but still can rely on RB D'Ernest Johnson to carry some of the load.
Any chance San Jose St. has at keeping this game close depends largely on the South Florida defense struggling out of the gates in 2017. That unit was very inconsistent last year, allowing over 38 points per contest in the last six games of the season. That average was below 26 in the first seven games of the 2016 season. With Charlie Strong leading the way, all signs point to South Florida being a much better defensive unit this year compared to last -- they're returning 15 of their top 20 tacklers from the year before.
Betting Trends
• South Florida is 15-7 against the spread [ATS] in its last 22 games going back the last two seasons.
• South Florida is 5-0 straight up [SU] in its last 5 games going back to last season.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of South Florida’s last 7 games going back to last season.
• San Jose State is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games going back to last season.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State’s last 7 games going back to last season.
Projected Score & Analyst's Pick
The average score after 10,000 AccuScore sims is 49-19.
South Florida's looking to kick off the season firing on all cylinders. And given the number of starters they're bringing back, I expect South Florida to dominate both sides of the ball, with the offense having some hiccups here and there.
I'll take the Bulls to cover, and the UNDER.
