NBA Playoffs 2025–26 — Accuscore Preview

The Big Picture

Oklahoma City Thunder are the overwhelming championship favorites. Accuscore's model gives OKC close to a 49% probability of lifting the trophy — nearly double any other team in the field. The only genuine threat on the other side of the bracket is Boston Celtics, the East's clear favorite to win the conference. Everything points toward one Finals matchup, and the model likes OKC to close it out.

Eastern Conference

Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic (1 vs. 8) — Detroit 80% Straightforward. Orlando earned their spot through the play-in but Detroit's size and depth are too much. Pistons advance without serious drama.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors (4 vs. 5) — Cleveland 80% The model backs Cleveland clearly, but this one could play tighter than the numbers suggest. Toronto won't roll over — expect a physical six or seven-game series. Cleveland wins, but earns it.

New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks (3 vs. 6) — New York 64% If the Knicks play physical and disciplined — their identity — they advance. Accuscore sees this as the East's most competitive first-round series. Atlanta is dangerous enough to make it uncomfortable but New York's postseason experience gets them through.

Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers (2 vs. 7) — Boston 88% Even if Embiid suits up, Boston wins this series. The Celtics are operating at a different level and Embiid's presence only stretches it to six or seven games — it doesn't change the outcome. Without him, it's a sweep candidate. Boston advance comfortably either way.

Conference Final (projected): Boston vs. Detroit — Boston 60% Detroit's run has been a great story, but Boston's quality and star power are ultimately too much. Celtics go to the Finals.

Western Conference

OKC Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns (1 vs. 8) — OKC 91% No questions asked. OKC's 64–18 season record tells the full story. Phoenix walks into a buzzsaw. Thunder roll.

Houston Rockets vs. LA Lakers (5 vs. 4) — Houston 66% ⚡ The model's biggest first-round call. Houston are the clear series favorite despite being the lower seed. The reason is simple: Luka Doncic is injured and Austin Reaves cannot carry the Lakers through a playoff series alone. Without Luka, this isn't close. Rockets win clearly.

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (3 vs. 6) — Denver 66% Jokic remains the most unguardable force in a seven-game series. Minnesota is dangerous but cannot match Denver's playoff-tested composure over a full series. Nuggets advance.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers (2 vs. 7) — San Antonio 88% Wembanyama clogs exactly the areas where Portland does their best work inside, and the Trail Blazers' perimeter shooting alone isn't enough to compensate. San Antonio win comfortably.

Conference Final (projected): OKC vs. San Antonio — OKC 76% The most intriguing projected matchup of the playoffs. Wembanyama vs. SGA is must-watch basketball and San Antonio could make this competitive. But OKC's depth, defensive identity and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's two-way dominance are a level above. Thunder go to the Finals.

NBA Finals: OKC Thunder vs. Boston Celtics — OKC 62%

Youth and defensive dominance against experience and championship pedigree. Boston brings Tatum, Brown and a proven Finals system. OKC brings pace, length, depth and the best net rating in basketball. Accuscore's model gives OKC a 62% probability in the Finals and roughly 49% outright championship probability entering the postseason.

OKC Thunder win the 2025–26 NBA Championship.

Accuscore's simulated NBA bracket