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THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS FORECASTING

Game Details

EPL
Totals

Over/Under

3.5

Accuscore Probability

 
 
under
over
Money Line
ARSE  91.1%
Side Value
ARSE  3.9%
1.4%
91.1%
7.5%
Game Projection
  • Burnley
    0.32
  • Arsenal
    3.26
Big Win
  • Burnley
    N/A
  • Arsenal
    N/A
Close Win
  • Burnley
    N/A
  • Arsenal
    N/A

Game Prediction

EPL: Burnley @ Arsenal 05/17/2026
There is a 7.5% chance of a draw. In simulations where the game is not a draw Arsenal, at 91.1%, are heavy favorites to beat Burnley who have a 1.4% chance. In simulation wins, Burnley upsets Arsenal by averaging 4.0 shots and 2.5 shots on goal. They average 1.6 goals in simulated victories vs just 0.3 in simulation losses. Overall, the average simulation score is Arsenal 3.3 to Burnley 0.3. The leading goal scorer for Burnley is Zian Flemming with a 15% chance of scoring 1 or more goals. When he has at least one goal Burnley has a 6% chance to win. The leading goal scorer for Arsenal is Viktor Gyökeres with a 82% chance of scoring 1 or more goals. When he has at least one goal Arsenal has a 96% chance to win.

Burnley

PLAYERS SHOTS SG GOALS G%
Zian Flemming 1.12 0.58 0.17 15.48%
Loum Tchaouna 0.42 0.17 0.04 4.1%
Jaidon Anthony 0.48 0.12 0.03 3.02%
James Ward-Prowse 0.04 0.04 0.03 2.88%
Josh Laurent 0.21 0.08 0.03 2.54%
Quilindschy Hartman 0.09 0.05 0.01 1.18%
Rest of Team 0.28 0.05 0.05 --
Team Total 2.65 1.09 0.32 --

PLAYERS

Arsenal

PLAYERS SHOTS SG GOALS G%
Viktor Gyökeres 4.23 3.1 1.68 81.84%
Bukayo Saka 2.06 1.2 0.36 30%
Leandro Trossard 1.5 0.76 0.31 26.9%
Eberechi Eze 1.53 0.85 0.31 26.68%
Declan Rice 1.24 0.61 0.22 20.16%
Riccardo Calafiori 0.61 0.41 0.15 14.36%
Rest of Team 1.24 0.43 0.43 --
Team Total 12.4 7.37 3.26 --

PLAYERS

Trends

  • Burnley
  • Arsenal
  • Burnley
  • Arsenal
Burnley Trends Arsenal Trends
All Games (Win-Loss-Draw) W-L-D: 0-2-1 All Games (Win-Loss-Draw) W-L-D: 1-0-0
Road Games (W-L-D) W-L-D: 0-2-0 Home Games (W-L-D) W-L-D: 0-0-0
vs OPP (W-L-D) W-L-D: 0-0-0 vs OPP (W-L-D) W-L-D: 0-0-0
Win by 2 or More 0 of 3 games 0.0% Win by 2 or More 0 of 1 games 0.0%
Lose by 2 or More 2 of 3 games 66.7% Lose by 2 or More 0 of 1 games 0.0%
When Underdog W-L-D: 0-2-1 When Underdog W-L-D: 0-0-0
Road Underdog W-L-D: 0-2-0 Home Underdog W-L-D: 0-0-0
All Games Last Season W-L-D: 0-0-0 All Games Last Season W-L-D: 20-4-14
Road Last Season W-L-D: 0-0-0 Home Last Season W-L-D: 11-2-6
vs OPP Last Season W-L-D: 0-0-0 vs OPP Last Season W-L-D: 0-0-0
Win by 2 or More (LS) W-L-D: 0-0-0 Win by 2 or More (LS) 12 of 38 games 31.6%
Lose by 2 or More (LS) W-L-D: 0-0-0 Lose by 2 or More (LS) 1 of 38 games 2.6%
Over-Under O-U: 2-1 Over-Under O-U: 1-1
Road Over-Under O-U: 0-1 Home Over-Under O-U: 1-1
Over-Under vs Opp 0 of 3 games 0.0% Over-Under vs Opp 0 of 1 games 0.0%
Total: 3 or More Goals 2 of 3 games 66.7% Total: 3 or More Goals 0 of 1 games 0.0%
Total: 2 or Less Goals 1 of 3 games 33.3% Total: 2 or Less Goals 1 of 1 games 100.0%
Total (LS): 3 or More Goals No Games Total (LS): 3 or More Goals 0 of 38 games 0.0%