Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NCAA Football Friday: USC at Washington State

More Picks, More Games: All of AccuScore's Week 5 College Football Picks

The USC Trojans have a tricky matchup this Friday when they head up to Pullman against Washington State. USC's favored by 4.5 points at the time of publication, but AccuScore sim data is suggesting the odds in Vegas are off.

We're always interested when AccuScore sim data and Vegas odds differ on the favorite -- and that's exactly the situation we've got here. Let's take a closer look.

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data

While Vegas has the visiting Trojans as 4.5-point favorites, the AccuScore sim data actually has the spread a whole 5.5 points swinging the other way.

Our data has Washington State as a 1-point favorite, providing a whole lot of value on the home 'dog. The Cougars cover a 4.5-point spread in close to 59 percent of simulations. Washigton state covering the spread is being offered in most books at -110, which indicates a 52-to-53 percent chance of happening. With them covering the spread in 59 percent of simulations, our sim data would have listed the odds to cover at -145, indicating some value on the -110.

The Cougars are getting +170 on the money line, indicating a 37 percent of winning.

AccuScore sim data has Washington St. winning about 51 percent of sims; the data would have listed their money line odds at +105, providing a whole lot of value to the +170 listed in most books.

Betting Trends
• Washington State is 8-2 straight up (SU) in its last ten games against Pac-12 competition.
• USC is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
• Washington State is 4-1 SU in its last five games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of USC's six games.

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What to Watch For

Washington State has been impressive on defense this year, but USC of course is a whole different beast. They lost middle linebacker Peyton Pelluer to an injury, and that might be the biggest x-factor in this matchup. The senior had 194 total tackles in just the last two seasons, and was a big-time factor in containing the opposition's ground attack.

The Cougars' defense averages 1 forced turnover per simulated matchup.

Trojans QB Sam Darnold threw for 22 TDs to 4 INTs vs Pac-12 opponents last season.

Darnold is projected to finish with 280 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in Friday night's matchup.