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Prediction Accuracy

Every graded pick, grouped the same way the tier is decided.

Winning patterns

n 100–300 · ROI ≥ 5%336 of 336 · 14 with a pick on today's board

Groups of past picks that returned a profit over a sample of 100–300 graded bets. A pick landing in one of these earns its accuracy signal — one of three signals behind a tier, alongside positive EV and sharp money. Two of the three make a Gold pick, so a pick can reach Gold on EV and sharp money alone without matching anything here. Where today's board has a Gold or Platinum pick in a pattern, it is linked.

PatternSportMarketTimeW–LNWin%ROIToday
Bundesliga · 10-20% chance to win · 7.5%+ edgeSoccer1X2all time32–13216420%+67.7%—
Champions League · 20-30% chance to win · 1.5–3% edgeSoccer1X2all time38–6810636%+38.0%—
MIA · 7.5%+ edgeNBAMoneylineall time119–14826745%+37.1%—
home underdog · our number 0-1 from the bookmaker'sNFLSpreadall time74–3010471%+35.8%—
brentford · 7.5%+ edgeSoccer1X2all time44–6711140%+35.0%—
aston villaSoccer1X2all time62–6712948%+33.1%—
MLS · 0–1.5% edgeSoccer1X23 years49–5310248%+32.7%—
40-50% chance to win · 7.5%+ edgeMLBMoneyline1 year86–8917549%+31.6%—
DEN · 7.5%+ edgeNBAMoneylineall time89–12121042%+29.4%—
home favourite · our number 0-1 from the bookmaker'sNFLSpreadall time131–63–119568%+28.8%—
leicester city · 7.5%+ edgeSoccer1X2all time43–6410740%+27.0%—
MIA · backing the homeNBAMoneylineall time131–8021162%+26.7%—
brentford · backing the homeSoccer1X2all time57–5311052%+26.0%—
20-30% chance to win · 0–1.5% edgeSoccer1X23 years53–11616931%+25.6%—
brentfordSoccer1X2all time77–10217943%+25.6%—
augsburg · 7.5%+ edgeSoccer1X2all time51–8914036%+25.3%—
sampdoria · backing the homeSoccer1X2all time47–5510246%+25.0%—
our number 0-1 from the bookmaker's · backing the overNFLTotalall time79–4212165%+24.6%—
OTT · 7.5%+ edgeNHLMoneylineall time68–7314148%+24.6%—
lazio · 7.5%+ edgeSoccer1X2all time75–6413954%+23.8%—
40-50% chance to win · backing the homeNBAMoneyline1 year50–7212241%+23.4%PHI @ CLE →
WAS · 0–1.5% edgeNHLMoneylineall time74–3110570%+23.2%—
rennesSoccer1X2all time63–6312650%+22.8%—
CLS · backing the homeNHLMoneylineall time138–9423259%+22.3%—
50-60% chance to win · backing the homeNBAMoneyline1 year61–5111254%+22.1%—

Recent Picks

GOLD & PLATINUM · FINISHED · ET
Last 7 days · Gold & Platinum
59–75 on 134 graded picks
44% hit rate
ROI · +0.6%
Last 30 days · 196–274 on 470 graded picks
42% hit rate-10.8% ROI
Nov 4
GOLDLOSS-$100
MIA @ LACNBA
LAC ML(moneyline)40% · +193
Nov 4
PLATLOSS-$100
TOR @ DENNBA
TOR ML(moneyline)40% · +169
Nov 4
GOLDWIN+$229
MIN @ HOUNBA
MIN ML(moneyline)31% · +229
Nov 4
GOLDWIN+$71
NKU @ SDAKNCAAB
NKU ML(moneyline)60% · -140
Nov 4
GOLDWIN+$89
CLE @ OKCNBA
OKC -3(spread)52% · -112
Nov 4
GOLDLOSS-$100
IND @ MEMNBA
MEM -5.5(spread)53% · -111
Nov 4
GOLDLOSS-$100
OTT @ BUFNHL
BUF ML(moneyline)60% · -125
Nov 4
GOLDLOSS-$100
MIL @ BOSNBA
BOS -12.5(spread)50% · +102
Nov 4
GOLDWIN+$42
CHI @ FLANHL
FLA ML(moneyline)71% · -240
Nov 4
GOLDWIN+$143
CHA @ BRONBA
BRO ML(moneyline)43% · +143
Nov 4
GOLDLOSS-$100
BALL @ MASSNCAAF
MASS -3.5(spread)51% · +100
Nov 4
GOLDLOSS-$100
PHI @ DETNBA
DET -2.5(spread)56% · -111
Nov 4
GOLDWIN+$78
ATL @ WASNBA
ATL ML(moneyline)57% · -128
Nov 4
PLATWIN+$106
NAP @ FCCHAMP
FC ML(moneyline)58% · +106
Nov 4
PLATWIN+$62
BET @ BVBCHAMP
BVB ML(moneyline)70% · -161
Nov 4
GOLDWIN+$261
CLU @ PSVCHAMP
CLU ML(moneyline)30% · +261
Nov 4
GOLDLOSS-$100
COM @ LENCHAMP
LEN ML(moneyline)30% · +290
9W–8L · 17 picks · $100/pick+$282
Date (ET)▼Matchup↕League↕Pick↕Prob↕Tier↕Result↕P/L↕
Nov 4MIA @ LACNBALAC ML(moneyline)40%+193GOLDLOSS-$100
Nov 4TOR @ DENNBATOR ML(moneyline)40%+169PLATLOSS-$100
Nov 4MIN @ HOUNBAMIN ML(moneyline)31%+229GOLDWIN+$229
Nov 4NKU @ SDAKNCAABNKU ML(moneyline)60%-140GOLDWIN+$71
Nov 4CLE @ OKCNBAOKC -3(spread)52%-112GOLDWIN+$89
Nov 4IND @ MEMNBAMEM -5.5(spread)53%-111GOLDLOSS-$100
Nov 4OTT @ BUFNHLBUF ML(moneyline)60%-125GOLDLOSS-$100
Nov 4MIL @ BOSNBABOS -12.5(spread)50%+102GOLDLOSS-$100
Nov 4CHI @ FLANHLFLA ML(moneyline)71%-240GOLDWIN+$42
Nov 4CHA @ BRONBABRO ML(moneyline)43%+143GOLDWIN+$143
Nov 4BALL @ MASSNCAAFMASS -3.5(spread)51%+100GOLDLOSS-$100
Nov 4PHI @ DETNBADET -2.5(spread)56%-111GOLDLOSS-$100
Nov 4ATL @ WASNBAATL ML(moneyline)57%-128GOLDWIN+$78
Nov 4NAP @ FCCHAMPFC ML(moneyline)58%+106PLATWIN+$106
Nov 4BET @ BVBCHAMPBVB ML(moneyline)70%-161PLATWIN+$62
Nov 4CLU @ PSVCHAMPCLU ML(moneyline)30%+261GOLDWIN+$261
Nov 4COM @ LENCHAMPLEN ML(moneyline)30%+290GOLDLOSS-$100
9W–8L · 17 picks · $100/pick+$282

Profitable at volume, by league

n > 300 · ROI > 0

Each league's own record over a large sample. A group of thousands of games can never sit inside the 100–300 window above, so none of these count towards a signal — they are the widest evidence we have. Only leagues we simulate are listed.

EPL

MarketTimeW–LNWin%ROI
Total1 year169–125–3532957%+8.7%
1X21 year139–21335239%+6.0%
1X2all time1573–28774,45035%+3.6%
Total3 years462–401–10296554%+2.0%
1X23 years389–6671,05637%+1.5%

MLS

MarketTimeW–LNWin%ROI
1X21 year177–27144840%+5.5%

NFL

MarketTimeW–LNWin%ROI
Spreadall time2134–1728–1203,98255%+5.3%
Spread3 years414–353–3179854%+2.9%
Totalall time2101–1835–563,99253%+1.9%
Total3 years391–343–1274653%+1.7%

Champions League

MarketTimeW–LNWin%ROI
1X23 years168–28245037%+3.8%
1X2all time309–52883737%+1.5%
Total3 years223–198–142253%+1.1%
Totalall time333–302–2666152%+0.1%

NBA

MarketTimeW–LNWin%ROI
Moneylineall time6880–929916,17943%+1.9%

Bundesliga

MarketTimeW–LNWin%ROI
1X2all time1384–21793,56339%+1.3%

Prediction Archive

0 GRADED GAMES
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Results are derived from the stored projection and the final score. Odds are shown where the feed carried a price; blank means no price was recorded for that market.

How we measure accuracy

Every pick is graded from the archive of completed games and grouped by probability band, EV band, odds, line, model-vs-line gap, team and league. A pattern counts towards a pick's accuracy signal at n between 100 and 300 with ROI of 5% or better. Accuracy is one of three signals behind a tier — positive EV and sharp money are the others, and two of the three make a Gold pick. ROI is flat-stake net return per unit risked at the odds actually available. EV bands are shown halved, matching every EV on the site; win rate and ROI are measured outcomes and are shown as they are.

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