Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NCAA Football Saturday - Iowa vs Mich. St.
All Picks, All Games: All AccuScore Week 5 College Football Picks
Michigan State's listed as a fairly heavy favorite this weekend as they get set to host Iowa. Vegas has them favored by 3.5 points and listed at -180 on the money line. Our simulation data, though, has a different take on this matchup.
Vegas Odds & AccuScore Sim Data
The -180 money line odds for the Spartans indicate a 64.2 percent chance of winning. They're fairly heavy home favorites. The sim data has Iowa as slight favorites, winning just a shade over 50 percent of the sims. The simulations would have listed the Spartans at about EVEN, suggesting bettors to stay away from the home side.
Iowa, on the other hand, has a lot of value from the sims. They're getting +150 on the money line in most books, indicating a 40 percent chance of winning. They win over 50 percent of sims, though, providing a whole lot of value on that +150.
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Betting Trends
• Iowa is 6-2 straight up (SU) in its last 8 games.
• Iowa is 17-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 24 games on the road.
• Iowa is 5-1 SU in its last six games on the road.
• Iowa is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs Michigan State.
• Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on the road vs Michigan State.
What to Watch For
The Spartans can really spread the ball around, but also haven't faced a defense like that of Iowa's -- especially in terms of stopping the ground attack. As a result, Michigan St. QB Brian Lewerke will have to firing on all cylinders to avoid the upset.
Lewerke is projected to finish with 241 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, along with 39 rushing yards.
Hawkeyes running back Akrum Wadley should have a big game this weekend, with the way Michigan State struggled to contain the ground attack against Notre Dame. The Spartans' LBs just don't have the talent to match up with Wadley's speed. Watch for him to get plenty of opportunities early.
Wadley is projected to finish with 56 yards on 9 carries, along with 20 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Altogether in sims, he averages 0.8 TDs per matchup.
