Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Oklahoma State vs. University of South Alabama
The NCAA Football season marches forward as we head into Week 2 action with No. 10 Oklahoma Sate hitting the road for a matchup with University of South Alabama Friday night. It's a non-conference matchup that marks the very first time these two sides have met. South Alabama heads into this matchup after a 47-27 road loss at Ole Miss last Saturday; Oklahoma State dominated Tulsa 59-24 in their season opener.
All of AccuScore’s latest College Football picks
Oklahoma State is a 26.5-point favorite with the total set at 66.5. The spread opened at 27.5 points with the total at 64.5.
What to Watch For
South Alabama may have lost its season opener on the road, but going back to last season, they are 3-0 straight up and against the spread at home. QB Cole Garvin -- on average -- completes about 61 percent of his throws, finishing week 1 with 1 TD and no INTs. Garvin is projected to finish with 242 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He averages almost as many INTs per sim (0.9) as he does TDs (1.1).
Oklahoma State's ground game is a monster to compete against, averaging over 330 yards per game. In Week 2, keep an eye on RB Justice Hall who finished Week 1 with 132 yards and 1 TD. He's projected to finish this week's matchup with 101 yards on 16 carries and 1 TD. He averages 1.2 TDs per sim, tied for the highest average among all players in this matchup other than Cowboys WR James Washington.
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Vegas Odds vs AccuSore Simulation Data
Whereas most books in Vegas have Oklahoma State favored by about 28 points -- give or take a half-point to a full point depending on when and where -- AccuScore sims actually have that spread 6 points lower. OK State is favored by 'just' 22 in the simulations, indicating a pick on the Jaguars to cover the 27-to-28-point spread. University of South Alabama covers a 28-point spread in about 59 percent of simulations, a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
The total doesn't have the same three-star hot trend alert assigned to it, but AccuScore sim data does have the total 2.5 points lower than what's listed in Vegas. The combined score stays below the total set in Vegas (66.5) in close to 56 percent of simulations, a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
Top Betting Trend
-The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma State's last 7 games on the road.
Analyst's Pick
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It's a Friday night matchup and college football doesn't exactly always go as planned on weeknights. South Alabama has a history of not getting blown out and Week 1 was proof of that -- they held their own against Ole Miss on the road and actually finished the game with more first downs than the opponent. Just seems like way too many points to lay on the road.
The Jags covering, with the UNDER.
