Written by Rohit Ghosh
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College Football Week 3: Ole Miss vs Cal - Analyst

We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore simulation data are on different sides of the money line and that's exactly the kind of situation we've got in this weekend's Ole Miss-Cali matchup at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, CA. The Rebels are 4-point road favorites with the total set at 72.

Other Week 3 Analyst Picks: South Florida vs Illinois

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sim Data

Whereas Vegas has Ole Miss as the slight favorites, AccuScore sim data actually has the Golden Bears as the slight favorites. Cal's actually getting +160 on the money line, indicating about a 38-to-39 percent chance of happening. Our sim data actually has the home team favored by a point; Cal wins just a shade over 50 percent of sims.

AccuScore sim data would have listed the Bears at at EVEN or -105 odds, indicating a whole lot of value on the +160 as well the +4 spread.

Top AccuScore Betting Trends

All AccuScore Picks vs the Spread
• SEC Team vs Non-SEC Team: 11-5, 69% +550
• Pac-12 Team vs Non-Pac12 Team: 11-5, 69% +550
See all of AccuScore's Week 3 College Football picks

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Non-AccuScore Betting Trends: Ole Miss vs CAL

• Ole Miss is 2-0 against the over/under this season.
• Ole Miss Rebels 0-2 against the spread (ATS) this season.
• Cal is 1-1 against the over/under this season.
• Cal is 1-1 against the spread this season.

What to Watch For

California QB Ross Bowers had a fairly quiet Week 2 performance at Weber State, going for 200 yards, no TDs, after a strong Week 1 outing at North Carolina with four TDs. He's projected to finish Saturday's matchup with close to 350 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT.

This'll be a good test for Cal's new offensive coordinator, Beau Baldwin. According to a report from SB Nation, the Bears rank No. 25 in the nation in rushing IsoPPP -- an explosiveness metric, measure the magnitude of success plays. A successful play occurs when you gain: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

Cal's defense will have to be have a much better performance this week, though. Weber State last week put up 571 total yards of offense, but finished with just 20 points due to three fumbles.

Free Analyst's Pick

Normally, this would be a hidden pick for members only, but we like to share our Analyst picks for all to see about once a week: To get all of AccuScore's picks, Try AccuScore Membership Today*
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Analyst Says: It's tough to go against a three-star hot trend pick. Taking the points and going with the home 'dogs here.

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