La Liga predictions and probabilities

Every La Liga fixture is run through the simulation 50,000 times, which gives the home, draw and away probabilities, a projected scoreline, and the chance of the match clearing each goals line. Player-level output includes the chance of scoring at any time in the match.

Spanish football is a lower-scoring league than the market sometimes prices it as, so the goals lines are where our number and the bookmaker's most often part company. Each match card shows both, with the live price beside our probability, and the published picks are graded afterwards.

La Liga predictions: common questions

Which La Liga matches are covered?

The full Primera División fixture list, with each match appearing once odds are posted.

Are these tips or probabilities?

Probabilities first. A tip only follows when the price on offer is worse than the probability we calculated.

Where can I check whether it works?

The accuracy page carries every graded pick, filterable by league, with the record and profit shown as they are.

Probabilities and projections come from AccuScore simulations; prices come from the bookmakers named beside them and move. Nothing here is betting advice. See the graded record.