Serie A predictions and probabilities

Serie A fixtures are simulated 50,000 times each. The output is a probability for the home win, the draw and the away win, a projected scoreline, the chance of the match going over or under each goals line, and the chance each player scores.

Every one of those is then set against the live bookmaker price, and a match reaches the board when the price is worse than our number. Serie A's reputation for tight, low-scoring football is the kind of assumption a simulation is useful for: it either holds in the numbers for a given fixture or it does not.

Serie A predictions: common questions

How early are Serie A predictions published?

As soon as the fixture is priced by the books, and they update as the odds move.

Do you cover the Coppa Italia?

Not yet. The league fixtures are covered; cup competitions are added only when we price them properly.

What does a Gold pick mean?

That the edge is backed by more than the price difference alone — a historical pattern of picks like it that has held up.

Probabilities and projections come from AccuScore simulations; prices come from the bookmakers named beside them and move. Nothing here is betting advice. See the graded record.