Accuscore's Bundesliga 2019/2020 Season Re-Preview

Bundesliga to return on May 16th

Football just might be back this season, with German Bundesliga on the verge of returning to action on May 16^th. Might is used here just because we don’t want to get our hopes up in these uncertain times, but it does look promising and the schedule is set for the rest of the season until 27^th of June. We are in for a treat already on the first day of the return, as Dortmund is hosting their arch-rivals Schalke at Westfalenstadion - how will the home team do without their infamous Yellow Wall in the stands?

Bundesliga season 2019/2020 looked interesting before it all came to a halt and there were several teams emerging to fight for the title, won seven times in a row by Bayern München. At some point, Borussia Mönchengladbach was leading the league, RB Leipzig was pushing for the title and Borussia Dortmund had their fair share of glory on top as well – but at the moment, it is Bayern München leading the pack.

Except for mid-table Frankfurt and relegation candidates Werder Bremen, who have 10 games to play, most of the teams still get to kick the ball around for nine occasions. Bayern leads by four points with 55, chased by Dortmund at 51, Leipzig at 50 and M’gladbach at 49. Four teams within two wins means it will be an exciting battle for the title, but also the Champions League qualification for the top four. Still in contest is also Bayer Leverkusen, currently fifth with 47 points – the distance to 6^th placed Schalke is already 10 points.

At the bottom, it is miserable Paderborn and Werder Bremen heading back down, with 16 and 18 points respectively. Fortuna Düsseldorf holds the relegation playoff-spot with 22 points, with Mainz four points ahead and Augsburg, Hertha and Frankfurt within six-points striking distance. Düsseldorf’s form was just getting better when the crisis hit, while many of the other candidates were struggling.

Plenty of football is to be played still and nothing is set in stone in these weird times. Except for probably Bayern winning the Bundesliga title. Accuscore’s season simulations indicate some interesting developments and here’s how it is predicted to go down.

Click to enlarge to a new tab

 

Major Changes

At the top of the table, not much is changing for the rest of the season according to Accuscore simulations. Bayern and Leipzig seem unbeatable, while Dortmund’s tougher schedule drops them to fourth. Borussia Mönchengladbach gains one spot, firmly holding on to their UCL qualification spot. The biggest surprise and fall in the top half comes from Schalke, who are currently holding the sixth spot but drop four places to tenth in the simulations. Schalke has struggled on the road and they do have one more game away than at home, in addition to still facing higher placed Leverkusen and Dortmund. Check the Freiburg continue their successful season and gladly hop in to replace Schalke in the Europa League qualification spot at 7^th.

The bottom feeders seem to stick to their ways and there’s not too much light at the end of the tunnel for Paderborn and Werder Bremen. Fortuna Düsseldorf, one of the biggest relegation candidates early in the season, however manage to pull off a miracle and climb off the relegation zone. They did improve a lot after the winter break, but of course the return-to-action after a longer pause is shrouded with mystery. In order for Düsseldorf to get saved, someone must fall and according to simulations it is Hertha Berlin. Hertha’s schedule is riddled with top tier teams and their destiny seems to be in the relegation playoffs.

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Accuscore's FIFA World Cup 2018 Preview and Predictions - Group Stage

FIFA World Cup 2018 - Group Stage

It is time for the most anticipated highlight of the year for many football fans around the world: FIFA World Cup 2018. Kicking off less than a week from now, on Thursday 15^th in Russia, the tournament includes 32 nations in the hunt for the World Cup.

The 32 participating teams are divided into 8 groups of four teams, playing head-to-head within the groups. Top two teams in the group then advance to the knockout round of 16, while the other two teams are done. The knockout round of 16 is pre-set in a way that a group winner will face the 2^nd placed team from another group. This makes winning ones group extremely important, unless you want to take on the biggest favorites early on. Elimination rounds then continue, until only the best of the best remains.

Accuscore is, as usual, right there where it happens already before it happens. With the advanced simulation engine it’s possible to make detailed projections on each individual game, leading to the knockout stage and eventually to the finalists and of course the winner.

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Accuscore’s analytics provide each team’s probabilities to win their group, advance to the round of 16 and the projected point average reached in the group stage. The knockout rounds can then be set based on those probabilities. Let’s start with the group stages.

 

 

Accuscore simulations have never been shy to contradict the public opinion or market odds – more often than not with excellent success. This time around the FIFA World Cup Group Stage simulations offer no massive surprises, but a couple of smaller upsets might be in the air.

In Group A the Russians will be challenged by Egypt, especially if Mohamed Salah is able to perform at his best. In Group C, Peru has shown some incredible poise in making it to the World Cup from the tough South American qualification and will be a thorn in the side of the Danes. The Argentinians, led by Leo Messi are likely to take the Group D by storm, but the fight for the second spot is wide open between Croatia, Nigeria and Iceland. Elsewhere, Mexico might be in a bit of a pickle with feisty Swedes and South Koreans, but are still likely to push through from Group F, which Germany of course is most likely to win.

Probably the only “major” upset in the simulations comes from Group E, where Serbia is pulling one over Switzerland. Costa Rica is not a pushover either and might cause some problems for the two qualification hopefuls – but of course not for the Brazilians, who are likely to dominate the group. Groups G and H look pretty much exactly as expected.

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Accuscore’s Championship Season 2019/2020 Preview

Promotion hopefuls and big disappointments

The UK boasts one of the World’s toughest football leagues, the Championship at least if asked from the British followers. Second tier to the fabled Premier League, it’s a stepping stone for many players and clubs as well. Season is as tough as it gets, with 46 games played in 9 months – but there’s more. Two top teams win straight promotion to the Premier League but the teams seeded 3 to 6 get to play a gruesome playoff-series to figure out the final promotion spot. For many, the Championship’s playoff’s and especially the final, is the true pinnacle of the footballing season.

Whilst Championship lacks the big-money signings and the glory that Premier League is known for, the intensity and the quality of play is surprisingly high in the second tier. Almost every season there are big surprises and massive disappointments – exactly what makes a league worth following. Last season’s dark horse were the winners Norwich, predicted 11^th by bookmakers (and 16^th by us…) while the biggest favorites Stoke City fell to 12^th. None of the promoted teams were predicted top-6 by the bookmakers nor Accuscore. Let’s see if we can improve this time around!

Accuscore’s Championship Analysis

As we’ve previously pointed out, Championship is hard to predict and not even the bookmakers have solved the puzzle. There are a couple of interesting differences between the bookmakers’ assessments and Accuscore’s simulations that we’d like to point out. While it’s difficult to pick one team to win it all, there are loads of outright options to choose from. We take a look at the most attractive odds for promotion candidates as well as one team that looks like a good pick to go down.

Attractive odds for Promotion

 

Brentford

Brentford have been almost there for many season, bubbling under but never quite the favorites. They were a disappointing 11^th last season, but managed 3^rd best record at home. Goes without saying that replicating their home form to away would already be enough, but they’ve also grown a tad stronger in all areas and more remarkably the young stars such as Neal Maupay are still around. Brentford are young and ambitious so look for them to make a push for promotion through playoffs if not straight. They’re valued at 5.50 to win promotion and we do like that!

Nottingham

Another team that has left their fans ripping hair out of their head for more than once. Last season they were touted in top 4 but fell to 9^th and another managerial victim was produced. Current manager, Sabri Lamouchi is a huge question mark, but the players at his disposal are better than the results last season indicated. They’ve lost a couple of players but brought in interesting names as well. Nottingham is a definite dark horse, but they might just fade away if Lamouchi doesn’t get a flying start. It’s more of a longshot, but Forest is placed only 10^th by bookmakers while Accuscore’s simulation push them to 7^th. There’s nice value in punting for promotion with odds of 8.00!

Middlesbrough

Getting a bit repetitive, but Middlesbrough crashing out of top-6 last season was a massive surprise to everyone. Tony Pulis did a decent job, but it just wasn’t enough for promotion-hungry M’boro. Assistant Jonathan Woodgate has everything to lose, but the team looks competitive and the starting XI is arguably top-6 quality. Good mix of experience and raw talent, but not much depth. There could be more to come from the transfer market, but we like Middlesbrough in the playoffs, which is three spots higher than the bookmakers. After that, everything’s possible and the odds of 7.00 for promotion is too good to pass by.

 

Bottom feeder club

Luton

All due respect to Luton Town, who fought their way back to the big stage after going practically bankrupt more than a decade ago. Scraping through League One is one thing, but Championship is a whole new ball game for too many of Luton’s players. They have acquired a handful of experienced, quality players, such as Calum McManaman, Martin Cranie, Ryan Tunnicliffe and Jacob Butterfield, who just might be enough to pull first-time-manager Graeme Jones’ squad out of the relegation battle. The Accuscore simulation engine is not that merciful though, and Luton drops five places compared to bookmakers’ assessment. With these odds of 5.50, we’ll go for the jugular!

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Accuscore’s French Ligue 1 Season 2019/2020 Preview

Is there life on France…behind PSG?

The French top tier football league Ligue 1 kicks-off this Friday. There’s been no lack of drama and headlines during the off-season, but it has once again only concentrated on PSG and namely a Brazilian forward called Neymar. The saga continues, but regardless of its ending, PSG is still clear favorites to win the league and there’s barely a challenger on sight. They’ve won six out of seven previous championships, only anomaly being the amazing feat pulled by Monaco in 2017. Monaco’s fall from grace has been nothing but spectacular after the championship and last season saw the famed club in the relegation battle - which they eventually survived by the skin of their teeth and 2 points.

Last season featured some surprising results as well, as 2010/2011 champions LOSC Lille reclaimed some of their old glory and landed the no. 2 spot behind PSG, hence qualifying to the Champions League Group Stage. Monaco’s absence from their usual top-5 position, Saint-Etienne took advantage and pulled a rabbit from their hat finishing 4^th right before Marseille, who were struggling for most of the season.

Challengers remain

The summer’s transfers out included some big names, such as Lille’s Nicolas Pepe, Bordeaux’s Jules Kounde and Lyon’s trio Tanguy Ndombele, Nabil Fekir, Ferland Mendy. As usual, no big name signings outside of PSG were made, but the top teams have their replacements in place. For example, Lyon replaced their losses by going hunting from Lille, landing Brazilian powerhouse Thiago Mendes and mobile left-back, Mali international Youssuf Kone. While Lyon is likely to keep up their pace with excellent young core and hot prospects on the verge of a break-through, hard times might follow in Lille.

Situation in Monaco is interesting, as the tumultuous season finally saw the return of the creator of their recent success Leonardo Jardim as a manager in January. His 17 games in charge were not exactly glorious, but enough to save the team from what looked like a certain relegation. Entering a new season, Monaco is a huge question mark, but they’ve tasted success under Jardim before.

One of last season’s success stories, Saint-Etienne looks to build on their 4^rd place with not much changes. Manager Jean-Louis Gasset moved aside and made way to his long-time assistant Ghislain Printant, but the team remains competitive and they might prove to be a real thing – at least challenging the regular top clubs like Marseille, Monaco, Lyon and Lille.

Enough of the speculation and onto the simulations. This is how the French Ligue 1 Season 2019/2020 is bound to happen, according to Accuscore’s simulation engine.

Accuscore’s best picks for Ligue 1 Season 2019/2020

In the illustration above, we can spot a couple of differences between the oddsmakers assessments and Accuscore’s simulations. PSG is such a clear favorite to win, that the assessment is better to do without that spoilsport. The most attractive odds are bordered in the grid and here’s the analysis regarding those picks.

Saint-Etienne

As stated before, Saint-Etienne got through the summer unscathed and return as competitive as ever. Their system seemed to work perfectly last season and they rarely dropped points – unlike the top teams tend to do in Ligue 1. There were no ups and downs, but they played solid throughout the season, which is a remarkable feat with not that deep quality. On the downside, they didn’t get much stronger either and have some European games to cope with, but Accuscore’s simulations believe their production to keep up to last season and even improve a bit. They are by no means a candidate to challenge PSG, but can easily keep up with the rest.

The odds of 6.00 for top-3 spot and 9.00 to finish just behind PSG are attractive enough to place a bet.

Lyon

Lyon seems like the eternal number two in Ligue 1, but they probably don’t mind. Despite losing key players again this summer, they’ve a great system in place and excellent young core in addition to quality replacements. It’s hard to fathom them falling behind any of their counterparts, unless something goes really wrong to start with. It’s quite a safe bet they’re right up there with PSG, but not quite able to challenge for the title.

The odds of 2.75 for 2^nd place might seem a tad low, but we’d go with a 50/50 chance so that’ll do!

Brest and Dijon

The biggest relegation candidates by far in any oddmakers books and in the last three in Accuscore’s simulations. Both teams are newly promoted and will encounter problems during the season. There are a lot more accomplished teams fighting against the relegation and it’s hard to imagine the likes of Toulouse or Angers to fail in their bid to stay up. The odds are not amazing for Brest or Dijon to go down, but good enough to make it profitable already if one gets relegated.

Take Brest to go down with odds of 2.75 and Dijon to go down with 2.88 – one of two will do!

Reims

A bit of a stretch, but the odds are attractive. Reims was one of the better small teams last season, finishing 8^th, but many times there’s a bit of a sophomore slump after overachieving. Their team is not that strong and they no longer have the element of surprise on their side. Reims also failed to acquire any improvements during the off-season, which might prove costly in the battle for Ligue 1 survival. Reims is no the most likely team to go down, but in Accuscore simulations they struggle mainly against their own level teams down the table.

Odds of 7.00 for Reims to go down are a bit too high and we’ll take this long shot with ease.

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Accuscore’s predictions: Liga MX 2019 Apertura

LIGA MX gets a head-start to season 2019-2020

The Mexican football league Liga MX kicks-off our football season for 2019/2020. This season the league boasts 19 teams instead of previous 18 and 170 games are played in the Apertura phase of the season. Last season’s top teams in Clausura were Tigres, Leon, Club America and Monterrey and it comes as a no surprise those clubs are once again predicted on top. It’s not unusual, though, that the Apertura-phase is not as easy to predict as it would seem.

Here’s how Accuscore’s simulation engine predicts the first part of the season to pass:

Accuscore’s analysis

The top of the table features the usual suspects and there’s not much difference between the oddsmakers and Accuscore’s predictions. In top-8, meaning the playoffs-positions, there’s only one team difference, as Pachuca takes the place of Pumas at 8^th.

All in all according to Accuscore simulations, the Liga MX Apertura phase is very much as the oddsmakers have it planned and there’s no room for big surprises. We’ll have a closer look after the 170 games are played and Liga MX heads to Apertura Playoffs!

Accuscore’s Scottish Premiership Season 2019/20 Preview

Scotland’s Premiership – Not a surprise in sight?

After Glasgow Rangers’ sudden fall from grace, there’s only been one ruler in Scottish football and it remains so until this day. Glasgow Celtic has now won eight championships in a row and it seems futile to try and challenge them. Last season Celtic led the way by 11 points after regular season and finished off 9 points ahead of their rivals after the Championship Group. Remarkably, however, that 9 points margin is by far the smallest in the past eight years of Celtic rule. Are the winds changing in Scottish football?

According to Accuscore simulations, no. Glasgow Celtic are as clear front-runners as they’ve ever been. After Celtic, it all becomes much more interesting: Glasgow Rangers are still the second best, but they’re now facing serious challenge from the likes of Aberdeen and the Edinburgh duo Hearts & Hibernian. Could it be the first time since the beginning of time, or at least the Scottish Premier League, that the winner would be other than Celtic or Rangers? Here’s how the table is likely to look after 33 games of regular season is done.

 

Accuscore’s best Scottish eggs

According to the simulations, not much has changed up there in Scotland. The Glasgow duo are very much alike as they were last season and are still the strongest clubs around. And the challengers are the usual suspects as well. Same old, same old, but Is there any value in outright bets at all? We think so!

In Accuscore simulations, St. Johnstone and Kilmarnock have literally changed places compared to the bookmakers’ assessment, which gives a nice edge to go for the opposite selection: St. Johnstone to make it to top 6 with odds of 2.50 and Kilmarnock to fall to bottom 6 with odds of 2.30. Admittedly it’s not the sexiest of bets out there, but it’s the one that actually boasts some value.

Kilmarnock had a splendid last season, going on to challenge the Glasgow teams and finally ending up 3^rd. The manager Steve Clark got a call-up to Scottish national team and Kilmarnock now have an unproven manager Angelo Alessio. They have not grown any stronger compared to the competition and there’s a lot of questions on how the team will play after Clarke’s success. Struggles are imminent, say the simulations.

St. Johnstone, on the other hand, showed some promise gain at times, but succumbed out of the Championship Group by six points after abysmal results towards the end of the season against teams lower in the table. Long serving manager Tommy Wright has been with the team for six years and made it to top 6 in the first four. With the most reputable player Tony Watt gone to Russia, there’s some big shoes to fill, but ample replacement already available with the likes of Matty Kennedy ready to improve from last season’s six goals and six assists.

Another team sticking out from the crowd is newly (again) promoted Ross County. They’ve been up and down, but now there’s a handful of new players and they’re intending to stay up for good. It’s definitely as bad a team as the bookmakers would like us to believe, but there’s hardly any bets to go for. If you are brave or crazy, squint your eyes enough and have deep pockets, go for top 6 placement with odds of 17.00!

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Dortmund vs. Schalke Prediction

Game of the Week For Bundesliga Return

The Bundesliga returns with a bang this weekend in the form of the Revierderby, the heated rivalry match between Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund. Dortmund and Gelsenkirchen (Schalke’s home city) are separated by a mere 25 miles in the soccer-rich Ruhr Valley. Dortmund slightly lead the all time head-to-head standings, with 33 wins to Schalke’s 32 in Bundesliga encounters. The two clubs have tied each other 30 times.

Last year delivered an absolute classic as Borussia, needing points to move into first place ahead of Bayern with 3 matches remaining in the season, capitulated ingloriously at home. Schalke did the unthinkable and ended up 4-2 winners in their mortal enemy’s own living room. This was undoubtedly the highlight of the Royal Blues’ season as they finished an uncharacteristically woeful 14th in the league. Dortmund fans felt the pain twofold- for the loss of the match, but also their chance at the title- and felt aggrieved at two suspect red cards.   

This season, Borussia are yet again on Bayern’s heels, sitting in 2nd place with 51 points. Schalke are in 6th place on 37 points, just slightly in the running for a European qualification spot. Accuscore’s simulations have predicted both teams to have some issues to finish off the rest of the season after the long hiatus, but this derby is likely to be a blast nevertheless.

Our Dortmund Schalke prediction hinges on a few big personalities, and Dortmund’s wonderkids Erling Haaland and Jadon Sancho are the ones we are focusing on most. Two of the world’s brightest young talents, this duo will be expected to have a big impact if Borussia are to resume league play in good form. However, Dortmund will feel the absence of captain Marco Reus and midfield lynchpin Axel Witsel. Both are doubtful due to injury, so veteran center back Mats Hummels must take the initiative to lead an insanely gifted but immature side.

Schalke manager David Wagner’s first season in charge has had its ups and downs. The Royal  Blues are 13th in the league in goals scored, but a staunch defense has carried them to a respectable place in the table. New loan signing Jean Clair Todibo will be counted on to anchor the back line, but will it prove too much responsibility in his first ever Revierderby? Attacking midfielders Amine Harit and Suat Serdar lead the team in goals, with 7 a piece, but the lack of a reliable striker may prove costly for the team from Gelsenkirchen.  

Saturday’s match up is sure to be a battle, with both pride and points on the line. It’s the ideal match to re-introduce Bundesliga play and an absolute must-see. To see our full Schalke vs. Dortmund prediction sign up for an AccuScore account today. With an AccuScore account you will be able to to see all of the Bundesliga simulations every week including this week’s Game of the week Dortmund vs. Schalke!

MLS Analyst Picks: Atlanta United vs Orlando City

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

MLS Saturday

There's plenty of action in the MLS Saturday, with Atlanta United and Orlando City matching up for the second time in about a week. This time the match is in Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, with the home side heavily favored on the money line (-180).

Atlanta's the favorite, and righfully so.

The odds in Vegas indicate the home side has about a 64 percent chance of winning. Atlanta United wins over 54 percent of simulated matchups.

AccuScore sim data has Atlanta winning this matchup, assigning a 4-star hot trend to the Atlanta money line pick.

Atlanta defeated Orlando 1-0 just last week and it's tough to see why anything changes this time around.

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Value Pick

Orlando did acquire Dom Dwyer and his ability to put the ball in the back of the net goes without question. In the last three seasons, he has scored 16, 12 and 22 goals, respectively, for Kansas City. He gives Orlando more firepower, and that could indicate a better overall performance from a roster with lifted spirits.

The draw is offering +325 odds on the money line, indicating there's only about a 23.5 percent chance of happening. There is a draw in about 21 percent of simulated matchups.

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A Pick on the Total

Depending on when and where you get the total, it's going to be either 2.75 or 3. Despite the 1-0 outcome last week, the lean is still on the OVER Saturday with Atlanta more often than not scoring multiple times in home matches.

They still feature the best offense in the conference with 40 goals, 21 of those coming at home. The total goes OVER in close to 59 percent of simulations.

MLS Friday: Orlando City vs Atlanta United

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

MLS Analyst Preview: Orlando City vs Atlanta United

MLS Friday features Atlanta United -- in its inaugural season -- heading to Florida for a matchup with Orlando City. Orlando opened as slight favorites to win on the money line (-113), with just a single point separating the two sides in the standings.

Atlanta heads into Friday’s nationally televised matchup having won three in a row by a combined score of 7-4. Orlando, however, hasn’t been all that great over the last month. They fell short 3-1 to Toronto at home the last time out.

Get this - Orlando has won just two of their last 14 matches overall, falling down to the No. 6 spot in the East after a strong start to the regular season. They're still 6-2-3 at home and can make some ground over the next few weeks with multiple matchups vs Atlanta -- currently in the No. 4 spot.

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Analyst's Pick

We've got a two-star AccuScore hot trend on the total (3.0), with about 54 percent of simulated matchups going OVER 3.

Both teams have a very open, free style of play and should treat the fans with plenty of shots on target. I'll take the OVER.

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NHL, Premier League & La Liga Picks HIGHLY Profitable Entering 2018

Written by AccuScore Staff
Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

Top Trends: NHL and Soccer Sliding into 2018

As the NFL regular season is winding down, Accuscore is posting another profitable season. Before Week 17 games kickoff, TOTALS bets are +1900 profit when betting 100 for every game. Point Spread has also been profitable this season as our predictions have brought 360 good into your pocket. Next, Week 17 and, more importantly, the playoffs come around to incorporate a full season of player and team data, trends and statistics.

This week, we will concentrate on highly profitable NHL and soccer trends.

After some rule changes to the sport, the NHL simulations weren’t performing up to standard. So, we overhauled the algorithm and brought in more hockey experts obsessed with the sport. These guys spend watching hockey than talking to their families, which seems like a problem for them, but we’ll gladly reap the rewards. So far, the updates have worked.

Last season, AccuScore’s NHL picks provided over +2,000 profit for every bettor who wagered the standard 100 units for all of our NHL picks. Already, this season has matched the results of a season ago.

So far, all side value bets have generated a profit of over 700 since the start of the NHL season. Over that same time, all money line bets when you are betting just the winner based on our favorite predictions have also been over 600 on profit. Admittedly, Totals haven’t been so good so far, but we’re expecting a quick turn around and positive returns for the remainder of the season.

Side Value NHL Team Trends
-The Los Angeles Kings in Staples Center: +600 profit in 18 games.
-Washington Capitals on the road: +671 profit

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Soccer Continues to Pay Off...BIG

During the last few years, Accuscore has expanded its soccer coverage to cover over 10 leagues round the world. Currently, we cover the top 5 leagues in the United Kingdom, another 5 leagues in continental Europe + MLS & Liga MX in North-America. Since August 2014, soccer predictions have resulted in a steady stream of profit. By the end of the last season in June 2017, the total profit from side value and totals bets from all of AccuScore soccer picks is 78,000 units!

This season has continued these astounding returns. Our customers that have followed our predictions from all leagues, have pocketed over +22,600 pure profit since start of this European season, including all MLS and Liga MX games from the beginning of August. This is the best performing sport year after year, since we expanded and fine-tuned our soccer simulations.

During the current season, the best performing leagues have been the Premier League and Spain’s La Liga with roughly +5,000 profit in side value and totals bets. When reviewing the last few months, La Liga picks have put +2,500 profit in your pocket with 100 units wagered for all side value and totals picks.

One interesting change when comparing the results from last year is that instead of betting every side value game that we have done in the past, the better results have been achieved by betting only games with over 20% side value. This has increased profit especially in Serie A, La Liga and League Two in UK. Overall by betting all games with 20% side value and all totals games, the bottom line is over +26,800 profit! Our annual membership of $349 is paid back about 70 times so far only by betting soccer games!

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Premier League Expert Analysis: Arsenal vs Manchester City

Arsenal - Manchester City

Thursday evening offers football fanatics a massive fixture in the Premier League with Arsenal hosting league leading Manchester City. Still going strong (pun intended) with Arsene Wenger at helm, Arsenal is sixth in the EPL, chasing the top-4 by 10 points and a game in hand. Manchester City on top has taken a 13-point lead over their rivals United, with also this game in hand.

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Arsenal has once again been the letdown of the season, as they’ve not managed to put up a serious challenge against the top teams. In addition, they’ve recently lost to Swansea and Bournemouth, while drawing with the likes of WBA and West Ham. Safe to say, “Wenger Out” movement has never been stronger – despite the acquisitions of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan in exchange for Alexis Sanchez.

Arsenal has won 13 and lost eight games, while drawing six. At home they’ve been a bit better, 3^rd in Premier League actually. They’ve only lost once in Emirates, winning 10 of 13 and gathering 32 points. The Gunners have scored on average 2.77 goals at home, quite a contrast to abysmal record of 1.07 on the road. Defensively they’ve been solid at home as well, allowing only 1.08 goals.

Manchester City has done what was expected of them and Pep Guardiola has built a team that plays to its strengths. Which seems to be everything on the pitch. City has lost one game in the EPL all season, when Liverpool managed a 4-3 victory at Anfield midway through January.

Otherwise City’s spotless record is ruined by road draws with Burnley and Crystal Palace, but with 23 wins in 27 games they’re sitting far ahead on the top of the league. City is also a great away team, leading the league with 10-2-1 record on the road. They’ve scored 2.23 goals on average and allowed only 0.77 on their road games. The approach has been way more defensive on the road: at home City has scored 3.57 while allowing the similar 0.71 goals per game.

The teams met only a couple of days ago in Carabao Cup final on Wembley. Manchester City took the spoils with a confident performance 0-3 and left plenty of Arsenal fans fuming. City only shot three times on goal and scored three goals, yet none can be blamed on the Arsenal keeper. City completely outplayed Arsenal and it remains to be seen if the tables have turned come Thursday evening.

Both teams have a congested schedule ahead, as they’re playing another EPL game on Sunday and then in continental competition midweek: City hosts Basel after 0-4 victory in UCL on Wednesday and Arsenal travels to Milan for 1^st leg of European League 2^nd knockout stage for Thursday. However, it’s unlikely we see any unnecessary rotation in a top tier matchup like this.

Accuscore’s Premier League Side Value picks have made fantastic profits once again this season, going 150-306 with a profit of +7382, with 100 unit even stakes!You can find all the football betting record archives and trends HERE

Accuscore Simulations

Manchester City comes out as clear favorites for their visit at the Emirates. In simulations, City wins with 63.9% probability, cementing their lead in the EPL. The game ends in a draw with 20.6% probability, while Arsenal is given only 15.6% chance to take all the three points at home. The value still lies with Manchester City, but the lines are moving fast so be quick to catch over 7% side value for the visitors!

We are likely to see some attacking football as Manchester City is likely to go for the jugular after gaining the upper hand in the previous game. In simulations the visitors score 2.59 goals on average and the home team Arsenal is likely to score as well, averaging 1.27 per simulations. Total is likely to go as high as 3.86 – despite both team’s impressive defensive records.

The most likely players to score a goal are the big guns up front, Sergio Agüero for City and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for Arsenal. Agüero scores with a 59% likelihood while Aubameyang finds the net with 40% chance. City’s support is strong with Raheem Sterling (36.76%), Leroy Sane (25.74%) and Kevin De Bruyne (24.62%). Arsenal somewhat lacks in that department, with only Aaron Ramsey closing in on 20% with 17.72 percent probability to score.

Expert Picks

As the noose tightens around Arsenal’s neck, City are playing with no real pressure and took the minor domestic cup with ease just a couple of days ago ahead of their hosts. No matter how you look at this game, City is the most likely winner here. Check the best odds to play from oddsportal.com or similar!

• Manchester City to win, 63.9 % - take the home win with odds of 1.57 | -177 or better
• Over 3.0 goals, 54% - take over 3.0 goals with odds of 1.86 | -116
• Agüero to score.59% - odds of 1.70 | -143
• Aubameyang to score,40% - odds of 2.5 | +150

More Accuscore analysis, expert picks and predictions available ataccuscore.eu!

Soccer Hot Trends: Premier League Profit Party

Written by AccuScore Staff
Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

Soccer Betting Profits Keep Pouring in

As Champions League continues this week to the knock out phase, it is a good time to look back and review how well Accuscore’s soccer predictions have performed over the past few weeks. Currently, we predict every single game form 10 different leagues, as MLS off season continues.

Since the last checkpoint in the middle of January, the total profit when betting 100 units to every game with any side value is +7349. This brings up the total profit since start of the season +13400! It's been a good month since we last checked in and told you to get on the ride.

If we placed bets only for the games where our predictions showed over 20% side value, the results were even better. This type of betting strategy brought +9138 dollars pure profit into your pockets. When reviewing all games since start of the season with over 20% side value, the total profit sums up to +20,076 dollars!

During these last weeks the best accuracy of predictions was achieved when betting all side value games in the Premier League. That resulted +3764 dollars profit. EPL is the single best league for profit generation since start of the season as the magic number reached over +8500 right now.

Accuscore accuracy has been very good across the board, as every league generated profit in over 20% side value bets, except Laliga. There, the losses were not so great, only 250 compared to overall profit +9138 dollars…

Two other leagues with solid accuracy were Serie A and Ligue 1, where the profit from last four weeks were +1828 and +1424 when betting those over 20% side value bets. It is worth to mention that the accurate predictions in Serie A have provided profits in every checkpoint during this season.

Even though total bets were slightly unprofitable - 209 dollars from all games - the total profit since start of the season is climbing very nicely. Our customers who bet 100 dollars for every total and every side value over 20% based on our predictions would have received so far over +34k pure profit to their pockets. We don’t expect this trend to change during the rest of the season. So, if you didn't listen last time, don't miss the boat now.

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