• Accuscore’s La Liga Season 2019/2020 Preview and Predictions

    Nothing new under the Spanish sun

    Spanish football league La Liga kicks-off this weekend and we could’ve copy/pasted this article from last year, since not much has changed after Barcelona’s triumphant fourth championship in five seasons. Only Real Madrid twice and Atletico Madrid in that oddball year of 2014 have managed to dethrone Barcelona in the past decade and it seems highly unlikely this year as well. Stranger things have happened, though, but not in Spain.

    Barcelona leads the way heading to the new season with acquisitions of highly rated Ajax midfielder Frenkie de Jong and Atletico Madrid’s prolific forward Antoine Griezmann. With the offense already loaded with talent, Barcelona became even more dangerous up front which might ease the burden on Leo Messi, who has been suffering from minor injuries. The repetition of the past two successful seasons seems inevitable, as they are by far the strongest team in every position and have depth like no other team in the World. Barcelona’s odds to win the league are slashed to 1.67 | -149, which is not attractive enough for a shot – even if it’s a likely winner.

    With the obvious now written down, let’s have a look at the Accuscore’s simulations for the oncoming season.

    Accuscore's La Liga Season 2019/2020 Preview and Prediction

    Challenging Barcelona

    Challengers are once again as usual, Real and Atletico Madrid. Real has struggled domestically after the departure of Christiano Ronaldo and they’ve yet to find a new leader especially in the offensive end. Now they’re putting their faith in Chelsea’s fantastic Eden Hazard, who seems like a perfect fit for Zinedine Zidane’s resurrection project. The likes of Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Casemiro patrol the midfield and the team has good balance overall. Acquisitions of defender Eder Militao and left-back Ferland Mendy provide much needed competition and depth to the defensive end, where Sergio Ramos and Marcelo have carried a huge load in the past seasons. Real is likely to do better than last season, when they lost incredible 12 times. Still, Barcelona is way ahead and it’s hard to see them stumble. Real to win the league with odds of 3.40 | +240 is there-there if it’s worth a shot – in simulations they are 10 points behind, but win the league with ~30% probability.

    Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid is now without their talisman Antoine Griezmann, but acquired “new CR7” in Portuguese wonderkid Joao Felix. It’s the same old story for Atletico, flying under the radar and fighting relentlessly with the big boys. They’ve bolstered the team with tough and hard-working players like Porto’s midfielder Hector Herrera and central back Felipe, while bringing in Real’s outcast midfielder Marcos Llorente and Spurs fullback Kieran Trippier. Diego Simeone knows exactly how to win the league without the superheroes, but it would definitely need a slip up from both of the giants. It’s an unlikely scenario so there’s not much to bet on Atletico this time around.

    Fighting for Europe

    Behind the big three comes a couple of hopefuls to capture the coveted Champions League seeding at 4th. Europa-league games are a fine target as well and this time there’s only the 5th and 6th achieving that chance – down from last season’s seven.

    Valencia and Sevilla are the most likely UCL-candidates, but are both way behind the top three. Valencia took the fourth spot last season and will have some burden from the Champions League this season. However, they’ve got adequate depth in that regard and have otherwise been able to stay competitive. Sevilla, on the other hand, have a new manager Julen Lopetegui, who’s been busy molding the team to his liking. Gone are the likes of Wissam Ben Yeder, Pablo Sarabia and Quincy Promes, replaced by dynamic Rony Lopes, Lucas Ocampos and Oliver Torres. Sevilla’s attacking style is likely to be balanced at least a bit, with acquisitions of highly rated Ligue 1 central backs Jules Koundje and Diego Carlos. Sevilla and Valencia are fighting equally for the 4th place, but Valencia might have a slight advantage due to fielding a well-gelled team from the start. Odds for Valencia to make it to top-4 are 2.50 | +150 and Sevilla 3.50 | +250, which are nicely playable – you choose which to go for!

    Moving down the table to the Europa-league hopefuls, there’s a bunch of candidates relatively close to one another. Within six points in the simulations are Getafe, Athletic Bilbao, Real Betis, Real Sociedad and Villarreal. Now, Villarreal is predicted to top 6 by many oddsmakers, but their last season was catastrophic seeing them succumb to 14th and they’ve not grown that much stronger during the summer. On top of that, their closest rivals look more competitive this time around so Villarreal is predicted only tenth in Accuscore simulations. Getafe is the highest riser, mostly due to excellent last season and a team that looked only to get better under the guidance of Pepe Bordalás. Not much has changed from last season, except for a bit of experience brought in. Getafe is in for another successful season, with odds of 4.00 | +300 for achieving top 6.

    Another team grown a tad stronger during the summer is Real Betis. Especially the acquisition of prolific striker Borja Iglesias from Espanyol was a coup, while Nabil Fekir and Juanmi provide adequate support. Quite unproven manager Rubi is a questionmark, but Betis is definitely challenging for top 6 spot as well. The odds for the feat are 4.33 | +333, which makes Betis a good bet for top 6 seeding.

    Going down

    Surprisingly the trio going down in Accuscore simulations is almost the same as the odds indicate. Only exception is Granada, who is likely to stay up according to Accuscore’s simulations and head down by the bookmakers. Valladolid is quite simply the weakest team this season, with newly promoted Mallorca. They escaped relegation last season by four points, mostly due to Girona’s disastrous last couple of weeks. This time Valladolid is not likely to be as lucky and down they go. Odds of 2.88 | +188 are good enough for a punt. Taking the place of Granada in Accuscore’s most likely relegation candidates is Deportivo Alaves. Alaves had a successful season last time around and they climbed to 11th. However, they head to the season with a new and unproven manager and first time ever, any expectations. The battle at the relegation line will be tough, but with odds of 3.25 | +225, Alaves is a good pick.

    Accuscore’s La Liga 2019/2020 Outright Picks

    To win: Real Madrid 3.40 | +240

    Top-4: Valencia 2.50 | +150, Sevilla 3.50 | +250

    Top-6: Getafe 4.00 | +300, Real Betis 4.33 | +333

    Relegation: Valladolid 2.88 | +188, Deportivo Alaves 3.25 | +225

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  • FIFA World Cup 2018 - Profitable first weekend

    Profitable first weekend in the World Cup

     

    Even though the favorites like Brazil, Germany and Argentina didn’t performed as expected, many Accuscore predictions were spot on. Our customers who followed game predictions were able to cash in nicely by betting side value picks as well as outright winners in 1x2 betting.

     

    Our predictions quite rarely show draw as the most probable outcome, so the bets in the markets to select 1x2 (home win-draw-away win) based on Accuscore predictions are usually 1 or 2. When selecting just winner based on our predictions’ highest probability, there were 7 games correct out of total 11. Draws between Spain and Portugal, Argentina and Iceland, Brazil and Switzerland as well as Mexico’s win over Germany were only games wrongly predicted. This means nice 324 dollars profit with 100 dollars bet per game.

     

    You can find all of Accuscore’s picks and predictions for the World Cup from Accuscore.com!

     

    If bets from moneyline markets brought good profits, few surprise results that Accuscore predicted higher probability than betting markets gave great wins for side value bettors. Especially wins for Iran and Mexico as well as the draw between Argentina and Iceland boosted the profits. Out of 11 games 7 had at least one side value bet correct. So far side value bettors have profited 845 dollars with 100 dollar bets, when following Accuscore side value predictions. This is 50% ROI in World Cup tournament so far!

     

    Many fans think that first games are just first games when there is long way to go before the final is played. During the last 40 years only Spain has advanced to the World Championship when losing the first game of the tournament in 2010. Italy was only team during the same time span, that end up with draw in their opener, but still won the Championship in 1982. Accuscore predicted top four teams to be Argentina, Brazil, Germany and Uruguay. Only Uruguay came up with a win, but their performance wasn’t anything to be highlighted. Other teams continue their tournament with less than three points from the first games.

     

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  • Soccer Picks +$35k Profit This Season!

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Soccer Profits Sky High

    Since start of the soccer season in Europe Accuscore predictions have been very accurate. By betting every game with over 20% value compared to bookmakers odds, our customers have collected over 21,000 dollars profit with an assumed 100 dollar bet . In practice, this means about 400% ROI as there is usually 4000-5000 invested in the games during the weekends.

    However, it's not just side value bets providing the profit. Total goals have been good way to cash in. With another 100 bucks bet per game, our customers have end up with over 14,000 in pure profit this season.

    This total profit of over $35k is already more than last season, when we recorded a strong posting of 33,500 profit from side value and total bets during the season! If you're not betting soccer using AccuScore yet...um, why not?

    Soccer Profits Come from the Mediterranean

    During the last few weeks the best performing league has been Serie A. With side value bets, the total profit assuming 100 dollar bets was +1270 dollars. Bundesliga and Premiership in England were also performing steadily, as those have been doing since start of the season. Profits from Bundesliga were +514 and from EPL +481 with the same bet size as in Serie A. Since the start of the season, our customers that have bet the games over 20% side value in Serie A and EPL have recorded +6571 and +6263 dollars profits, respectively.

    While totals have not been as profitable as side value bets, mainly due to poor accuracy in Liga MX total goal predictions, there have been bright spots in Over/Under betting. Our customers who bet total markets in English Championship games received over 400 profit during last few weeks from those games. Ligue 1 in France has been another profitable league to bet totals in recent games.

    As the weekend is full of soccer action around the world, Here are some major trends to keep in mind - Assumes 100 USD bet size:

    Since start of the season:
    Side value over 20%: +21231
    Totals: +14121

    From 12th February to 8th of March
    -Side value over 20%: +1155
    -Totals: -301

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    Note: Membership includes ALL sports, including forecasts, odds analysis and goal scoring probabilities for every match in the Premier League, Championship, League One, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, Liga MX, MLS and League 2.

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