Accuscore Champions League Expert Analysis: Chelsea vs Barcelona

UEFA Champions League Picks: Chelsea - Barcelona

UEFA Champions League returns with a midweek fixture from London, where Chelsea hosts Spanish behemoths Barcelona on Tuesday evening. The second leg, played in Barcelona takes place March 14^th.

Chelsea has seen better days in their domestic competition, Premier League. The reigning champions currently sit fourth, already 19 points behind the leaders Manchester City and Antonio Conte’s seat seems to be shaking already – only nine months after securing the title. Chelsea’s record from the past games is not flattering, with losses to Bournemouth and Watford still hurting despite expected 3-0 win over WBA the previous weekend and 4-0 victory in FA Cup over Hull this weekend. Tuesday’s opposition is, however, on a completely different level and poses another big threat for Conte and his troops.

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Barcelona has had a season no one was expecting and silenced their doubters in a convincing manner. They’ve taken the lead in La Liga by going unbeaten for 24 games now, with a confident 7-point lead on top, with Atletico Madrid chasing and Real Madrid already 17 points behind. As of late they’ve dropped points to both Getafe and Espanyol, so it’s not just a walk in the park domestically either.

In Champions League Chelsea came through with 11 points from six games, winning three, drawing two and losing once. At home they drew with Atletico Madrid 1-1 and AS Roma 3-3, while beating the walkover Qarabag 6-0. Chelsea scored 16 goals in the group stage, but removing Qarabag from the equation it doesn’t look too pretty: 6 goals for and 8 against. Funnily enough, they’ve also gotten rid of 2^nd best goalscorer with two goals, Michy Batshuayi, while Eden Hazard leads the team with three. The replacement forward from Arsenal, Oliver Giroud is available, although unlikely to fit in Conte’s starting XI.

Barcelona completed the group stage with flying colors, winning their group with 14 points ahead of Juventus with 11. Barca won four and drew twice, on the road against Juventus and Olympiakos. Interestingly enough, they scored only once in those three road games, when beating Sporting 0-1. At home they went 3-0-0 with 8:1 goal ratio. Leo Messi leads the team in scoring and is looking for support at this stage, with Luis Suarez being shut down for the most part of the group stage. New acquisition Philippe Coutinho is ineligible for UCL after featuring with Liverpool earlier in the season.

Injuries/suspensions: Chelsea – David Luiz (out), Barcelona – Philippe Coutinho (ineligible)

Probable lineups in Accuscore simulations courtesy of  Rotowire

Accuscore’s Analysis

In Accuscore’s simulations Barcelona is clear favorite to take the win at Stamford Bridge. Despite their very conservative results on the road, the statistical advantage over Chelsea is overwhelming. In a low scoring game the likelihood of a draw is 29.3%, some 2% more than the odds would indicate. Barcelona takes the advantage by winning on the road with 50.6%, indicating a slight value compared to odds around 48%. Chelsea only wins 20.1% of the simulations at home.

Neither team has played very high scoring games this year in the Champions League. In simulations, the score remains low as well: Barcelona hits the net on average 1.44 times, while the hosts Chelsea are stuck with 0.77 goals on average. Only Barcelona’s Leo Messi is more likely to score than not, with approximately 54.5% likelihood to add to his goal total. Chelsea’s Alvaro Morata leads his team in scoring percentage, but the probability is as low as 26.5%.

Have a look at Accuscore's analysis on the UEFA Champions League 2017/2018 1st Knockout round overall here!

Analyst Picks

Chelsea’s struggles domestically are likely to somewhat reflect to Champions League as well and Barcelona’s excellent form makes it a tough game for Antonio Conte’s men. While the first leg is always tricky, it’s more likely that Barcelona will run away as victors from this one.

Barcelona to win:+120 | 2.20 (45.45%) - Accuscore odds -102 | 1.98 (50.6%)

Draw:  +260 | 3.60 (27.78%) - Accuscore odds +241 | 3.41 (29.73%)

Total Under 2.5 goals:+108 | 2.08 (48.08%) – Accuscore odds -181 | 1.55 (64.52%)

Scoring

Leo Messi – Accuscore odds -119 | 1.84 (54.5%)

Luis Suarez, Alvaro Morata– Accuscore odds +278 | 3.78 (26.5%)

Accuscore's Bundesliga 2019/2020 Season Re-Preview

Bundesliga to return on May 16th

Football just might be back this season, with German Bundesliga on the verge of returning to action on May 16^th. Might is used here just because we don’t want to get our hopes up in these uncertain times, but it does look promising and the schedule is set for the rest of the season until 27^th of June. We are in for a treat already on the first day of the return, as Dortmund is hosting their arch-rivals Schalke at Westfalenstadion - how will the home team do without their infamous Yellow Wall in the stands?

Bundesliga season 2019/2020 looked interesting before it all came to a halt and there were several teams emerging to fight for the title, won seven times in a row by Bayern München. At some point, Borussia Mönchengladbach was leading the league, RB Leipzig was pushing for the title and Borussia Dortmund had their fair share of glory on top as well – but at the moment, it is Bayern München leading the pack.

Except for mid-table Frankfurt and relegation candidates Werder Bremen, who have 10 games to play, most of the teams still get to kick the ball around for nine occasions. Bayern leads by four points with 55, chased by Dortmund at 51, Leipzig at 50 and M’gladbach at 49. Four teams within two wins means it will be an exciting battle for the title, but also the Champions League qualification for the top four. Still in contest is also Bayer Leverkusen, currently fifth with 47 points – the distance to 6^th placed Schalke is already 10 points.

At the bottom, it is miserable Paderborn and Werder Bremen heading back down, with 16 and 18 points respectively. Fortuna Düsseldorf holds the relegation playoff-spot with 22 points, with Mainz four points ahead and Augsburg, Hertha and Frankfurt within six-points striking distance. Düsseldorf’s form was just getting better when the crisis hit, while many of the other candidates were struggling.

Plenty of football is to be played still and nothing is set in stone in these weird times. Except for probably Bayern winning the Bundesliga title. Accuscore’s season simulations indicate some interesting developments and here’s how it is predicted to go down.

Click to enlarge to a new tab

 

Major Changes

At the top of the table, not much is changing for the rest of the season according to Accuscore simulations. Bayern and Leipzig seem unbeatable, while Dortmund’s tougher schedule drops them to fourth. Borussia Mönchengladbach gains one spot, firmly holding on to their UCL qualification spot. The biggest surprise and fall in the top half comes from Schalke, who are currently holding the sixth spot but drop four places to tenth in the simulations. Schalke has struggled on the road and they do have one more game away than at home, in addition to still facing higher placed Leverkusen and Dortmund. Check the Freiburg continue their successful season and gladly hop in to replace Schalke in the Europa League qualification spot at 7^th.

The bottom feeders seem to stick to their ways and there’s not too much light at the end of the tunnel for Paderborn and Werder Bremen. Fortuna Düsseldorf, one of the biggest relegation candidates early in the season, however manage to pull off a miracle and climb off the relegation zone. They did improve a lot after the winter break, but of course the return-to-action after a longer pause is shrouded with mystery. In order for Düsseldorf to get saved, someone must fall and according to simulations it is Hertha Berlin. Hertha’s schedule is riddled with top tier teams and their destiny seems to be in the relegation playoffs.

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Accuscore's UEFA Champions League 2019/2020 - 1st Knockout Stage

UCL 1st Knockout Stage - Probabilities

The UEFA Champions League returns with the 1^st knockout stage and 16 teams remaining. No major upsets were seen in the group stage, but a couple of surprising sides are featured in the round of 16. Last season’s semifinalists Ajax were left stranded in the group stage, but it was rather expected after being harvested clean of their most talented players during the summer by the bigger clubs. Notably, all the big five leagues of Europe are represented, but none of the smaller nations made the cut this time. We have four teams from Spain and England, three teams from Germany and Italy and two teams From France – no Portugal, no Netherlands.

1st Knockout Stage

The first knockout stage is played over two legs with the goal aggregate rules applying. Using Accuscore’s simulation engine we are able to determine the most likely outcome of both of the legs, although the setting might change depending on the results of the first game. Regardless, here are the most likely candidates to go through to the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League 2019/2020.

Atletico Madrid – Liverpool

The reigning champions take on the Spanish La Liga challengers, who have struggled especially in the attacking front this season. Liverpool have been dominant in domestic Premier League and have yet to lose a game. They had some issues in group stages, but when the stakes get higher, they are likely to add some steam. Liverpool to progress with 78% probability.

Dortmund – PSG

The French giants have some of the best players in the world at their disposal and better balanced team overall than in many previous occasions. Winning the Champions League is their only target, as they’ve done it domestically enough times already. Dortmund puts up a good challenge, but the quality is lacking just a bit and the young stars gain good experience but can’t quite deliver. PSG moves on with 67% probability.

Atalanta – Valencia

Two dark horses drawn together, Atalanta has been a spark in Serie A playing all-out-attack football and scoring aplenty, taking them fourth in the league. Valencia have had their issues in La Liga and are only seventh, but the team is feisty and spirited. Atalanta’s attack is likely to win this one though and the Italians head to top-8 with 61% probability.

Tottenham – RB Leipzig

Last season’s surprise runner-ups vs the up and coming challengers. Things went wrong with Spurs early on and Jose Mourinho is now in charge – it looks better but missing Harry Kane is an issue. Leipzig is challenging for title domestically but they have an excellent chance to oust Spurs and go to top 8 in UCL. The team is full of quality if lacking some depth. Leipzig will upset Spurs with 58% probability.

Chelsea – Bayern München

Chelsea have been only decent this season, with Frank Lampard unable to bring in replacing players for Eden Hazard or anyone else. The team is lacking in many positions and prolific striker Tammy Abraham might be out as well. Bayern is full of talent again and concentrate fully on winning the UCL. Robert Lewandowski Is red hot and the team is gelled well together. Bayern progresses with 80% probability.

Napoli – Barcelona

Both teams have had their issues domestically, but Napoli is in deeper waters. Their managerial change didn’t help and the team is not looking any better. They have talent, but the system seems to be faulty. Barcelona made a surprising change in management and are back to their “old” ways, dominating games. Only issue is the thin squad, will they have enough energy to battle in all fronts? We think so and Barcelona heads to quarter finals with 74% probability.

Lyon – Juventus

Juventus have had a scare in Serie A, with the challengers looking to usurp the title, but they are back on top again. The team is as good as ever, if getting a little old – might be one of the last chances to take home the coveted trophy with this team core. Lyon has had a disastrous season and they’re far off from making it to UCL again next season. Offensively sound team lacks structure and should present no danger to Juventus, who are heading to top 8 with 81% probability.

Real Madrid – Manchester City

Probably the most even of the pairings, two of the world’s most expensive teams face each other. Real has done better in domestic league, but had issues in group stages. Manchester City is marred by non-footballing matters and this might be their only shot at UCL in a couple of years. Both teams are full of quality, experience and depth, so it’s likely to come down to goal differences and maybe even away goals and overtime. City’s star players have had a bit more pump this season, so Manchester is slightly more likely to progress with 59% probability.

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Accuscore’s Championship Season 2019/2020 Preview

Promotion hopefuls and big disappointments

The UK boasts one of the World’s toughest football leagues, the Championship at least if asked from the British followers. Second tier to the fabled Premier League, it’s a stepping stone for many players and clubs as well. Season is as tough as it gets, with 46 games played in 9 months – but there’s more. Two top teams win straight promotion to the Premier League but the teams seeded 3 to 6 get to play a gruesome playoff-series to figure out the final promotion spot. For many, the Championship’s playoff’s and especially the final, is the true pinnacle of the footballing season.

Whilst Championship lacks the big-money signings and the glory that Premier League is known for, the intensity and the quality of play is surprisingly high in the second tier. Almost every season there are big surprises and massive disappointments – exactly what makes a league worth following. Last season’s dark horse were the winners Norwich, predicted 11^th by bookmakers (and 16^th by us…) while the biggest favorites Stoke City fell to 12^th. None of the promoted teams were predicted top-6 by the bookmakers nor Accuscore. Let’s see if we can improve this time around!

Accuscore’s Championship Analysis

As we’ve previously pointed out, Championship is hard to predict and not even the bookmakers have solved the puzzle. There are a couple of interesting differences between the bookmakers’ assessments and Accuscore’s simulations that we’d like to point out. While it’s difficult to pick one team to win it all, there are loads of outright options to choose from. We take a look at the most attractive odds for promotion candidates as well as one team that looks like a good pick to go down.

Attractive odds for Promotion

 

Brentford

Brentford have been almost there for many season, bubbling under but never quite the favorites. They were a disappointing 11^th last season, but managed 3^rd best record at home. Goes without saying that replicating their home form to away would already be enough, but they’ve also grown a tad stronger in all areas and more remarkably the young stars such as Neal Maupay are still around. Brentford are young and ambitious so look for them to make a push for promotion through playoffs if not straight. They’re valued at 5.50 to win promotion and we do like that!

Nottingham

Another team that has left their fans ripping hair out of their head for more than once. Last season they were touted in top 4 but fell to 9^th and another managerial victim was produced. Current manager, Sabri Lamouchi is a huge question mark, but the players at his disposal are better than the results last season indicated. They’ve lost a couple of players but brought in interesting names as well. Nottingham is a definite dark horse, but they might just fade away if Lamouchi doesn’t get a flying start. It’s more of a longshot, but Forest is placed only 10^th by bookmakers while Accuscore’s simulation push them to 7^th. There’s nice value in punting for promotion with odds of 8.00!

Middlesbrough

Getting a bit repetitive, but Middlesbrough crashing out of top-6 last season was a massive surprise to everyone. Tony Pulis did a decent job, but it just wasn’t enough for promotion-hungry M’boro. Assistant Jonathan Woodgate has everything to lose, but the team looks competitive and the starting XI is arguably top-6 quality. Good mix of experience and raw talent, but not much depth. There could be more to come from the transfer market, but we like Middlesbrough in the playoffs, which is three spots higher than the bookmakers. After that, everything’s possible and the odds of 7.00 for promotion is too good to pass by.

 

Bottom feeder club

Luton

All due respect to Luton Town, who fought their way back to the big stage after going practically bankrupt more than a decade ago. Scraping through League One is one thing, but Championship is a whole new ball game for too many of Luton’s players. They have acquired a handful of experienced, quality players, such as Calum McManaman, Martin Cranie, Ryan Tunnicliffe and Jacob Butterfield, who just might be enough to pull first-time-manager Graeme Jones’ squad out of the relegation battle. The Accuscore simulation engine is not that merciful though, and Luton drops five places compared to bookmakers’ assessment. With these odds of 5.50, we’ll go for the jugular!

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Accuscore’s French Ligue 1 Season 2019/2020 Preview

Is there life on France…behind PSG?

The French top tier football league Ligue 1 kicks-off this Friday. There’s been no lack of drama and headlines during the off-season, but it has once again only concentrated on PSG and namely a Brazilian forward called Neymar. The saga continues, but regardless of its ending, PSG is still clear favorites to win the league and there’s barely a challenger on sight. They’ve won six out of seven previous championships, only anomaly being the amazing feat pulled by Monaco in 2017. Monaco’s fall from grace has been nothing but spectacular after the championship and last season saw the famed club in the relegation battle - which they eventually survived by the skin of their teeth and 2 points.

Last season featured some surprising results as well, as 2010/2011 champions LOSC Lille reclaimed some of their old glory and landed the no. 2 spot behind PSG, hence qualifying to the Champions League Group Stage. Monaco’s absence from their usual top-5 position, Saint-Etienne took advantage and pulled a rabbit from their hat finishing 4^th right before Marseille, who were struggling for most of the season.

Challengers remain

The summer’s transfers out included some big names, such as Lille’s Nicolas Pepe, Bordeaux’s Jules Kounde and Lyon’s trio Tanguy Ndombele, Nabil Fekir, Ferland Mendy. As usual, no big name signings outside of PSG were made, but the top teams have their replacements in place. For example, Lyon replaced their losses by going hunting from Lille, landing Brazilian powerhouse Thiago Mendes and mobile left-back, Mali international Youssuf Kone. While Lyon is likely to keep up their pace with excellent young core and hot prospects on the verge of a break-through, hard times might follow in Lille.

Situation in Monaco is interesting, as the tumultuous season finally saw the return of the creator of their recent success Leonardo Jardim as a manager in January. His 17 games in charge were not exactly glorious, but enough to save the team from what looked like a certain relegation. Entering a new season, Monaco is a huge question mark, but they’ve tasted success under Jardim before.

One of last season’s success stories, Saint-Etienne looks to build on their 4^rd place with not much changes. Manager Jean-Louis Gasset moved aside and made way to his long-time assistant Ghislain Printant, but the team remains competitive and they might prove to be a real thing – at least challenging the regular top clubs like Marseille, Monaco, Lyon and Lille.

Enough of the speculation and onto the simulations. This is how the French Ligue 1 Season 2019/2020 is bound to happen, according to Accuscore’s simulation engine.

Accuscore’s best picks for Ligue 1 Season 2019/2020

In the illustration above, we can spot a couple of differences between the oddsmakers assessments and Accuscore’s simulations. PSG is such a clear favorite to win, that the assessment is better to do without that spoilsport. The most attractive odds are bordered in the grid and here’s the analysis regarding those picks.

Saint-Etienne

As stated before, Saint-Etienne got through the summer unscathed and return as competitive as ever. Their system seemed to work perfectly last season and they rarely dropped points – unlike the top teams tend to do in Ligue 1. There were no ups and downs, but they played solid throughout the season, which is a remarkable feat with not that deep quality. On the downside, they didn’t get much stronger either and have some European games to cope with, but Accuscore’s simulations believe their production to keep up to last season and even improve a bit. They are by no means a candidate to challenge PSG, but can easily keep up with the rest.

The odds of 6.00 for top-3 spot and 9.00 to finish just behind PSG are attractive enough to place a bet.

Lyon

Lyon seems like the eternal number two in Ligue 1, but they probably don’t mind. Despite losing key players again this summer, they’ve a great system in place and excellent young core in addition to quality replacements. It’s hard to fathom them falling behind any of their counterparts, unless something goes really wrong to start with. It’s quite a safe bet they’re right up there with PSG, but not quite able to challenge for the title.

The odds of 2.75 for 2^nd place might seem a tad low, but we’d go with a 50/50 chance so that’ll do!

Brest and Dijon

The biggest relegation candidates by far in any oddmakers books and in the last three in Accuscore’s simulations. Both teams are newly promoted and will encounter problems during the season. There are a lot more accomplished teams fighting against the relegation and it’s hard to imagine the likes of Toulouse or Angers to fail in their bid to stay up. The odds are not amazing for Brest or Dijon to go down, but good enough to make it profitable already if one gets relegated.

Take Brest to go down with odds of 2.75 and Dijon to go down with 2.88 – one of two will do!

Reims

A bit of a stretch, but the odds are attractive. Reims was one of the better small teams last season, finishing 8^th, but many times there’s a bit of a sophomore slump after overachieving. Their team is not that strong and they no longer have the element of surprise on their side. Reims also failed to acquire any improvements during the off-season, which might prove costly in the battle for Ligue 1 survival. Reims is no the most likely team to go down, but in Accuscore simulations they struggle mainly against their own level teams down the table.

Odds of 7.00 for Reims to go down are a bit too high and we’ll take this long shot with ease.

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Accuscore’s La Liga Season 2019/2020 Preview and Predictions

Nothing new under the Spanish sun

Spanish football league La Liga kicks-off this weekend and we could’ve copy/pasted this article from last year, since not much has changed after Barcelona’s triumphant fourth championship in five seasons. Only Real Madrid twice and Atletico Madrid in that oddball year of 2014 have managed to dethrone Barcelona in the past decade and it seems highly unlikely this year as well. Stranger things have happened, though, but not in Spain.

Barcelona leads the way heading to the new season with acquisitions of highly rated Ajax midfielder Frenkie de Jong and Atletico Madrid’s prolific forward Antoine Griezmann. With the offense already loaded with talent, Barcelona became even more dangerous up front which might ease the burden on Leo Messi, who has been suffering from minor injuries. The repetition of the past two successful seasons seems inevitable, as they are by far the strongest team in every position and have depth like no other team in the World. Barcelona’s odds to win the league are slashed to 1.67 | -149, which is not attractive enough for a shot – even if it’s a likely winner.

With the obvious now written down, let’s have a look at the Accuscore’s simulations for the oncoming season.

Challenging Barcelona

Challengers are once again as usual, Real and Atletico Madrid. Real has struggled domestically after the departure of Christiano Ronaldo and they’ve yet to find a new leader especially in the offensive end. Now they’re putting their faith in Chelsea’s fantastic Eden Hazard, who seems like a perfect fit for Zinedine Zidane’s resurrection project. The likes of Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Casemiro patrol the midfield and the team has good balance overall. Acquisitions of defender Eder Militao and left-back Ferland Mendy provide much needed competition and depth to the defensive end, where Sergio Ramos and Marcelo have carried a huge load in the past seasons. Real is likely to do better than last season, when they lost incredible 12 times. Still, Barcelona is way ahead and it’s hard to see them stumble. Real to win the league with odds of 3.40 | +240 is there-there if it’s worth a shot – in simulations they are 10 points behind, but win the league with ~30% probability.

Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid is now without their talisman Antoine Griezmann, but acquired “new CR7” in Portuguese wonderkid Joao Felix. It’s the same old story for Atletico, flying under the radar and fighting relentlessly with the big boys. They’ve bolstered the team with tough and hard-working players like Porto’s midfielder Hector Herrera and central back Felipe, while bringing in Real’s outcast midfielder Marcos Llorente and Spurs fullback Kieran Trippier. Diego Simeone knows exactly how to win the league without the superheroes, but it would definitely need a slip up from both of the giants. It’s an unlikely scenario so there’s not much to bet on Atletico this time around.

Fighting for Europe

Behind the big three comes a couple of hopefuls to capture the coveted Champions League seeding at 4^th. Europa-league games are a fine target as well and this time there’s only the 5^th and 6^th achieving that chance – down from last season’s seven.

Valencia and Sevilla are the most likely UCL-candidates, but are both way behind the top three. Valencia took the fourth spot last season and will have some burden from the Champions League this season. However, they’ve got adequate depth in that regard and have otherwise been able to stay competitive. Sevilla, on the other hand, have a new manager Julen Lopetegui, who’s been busy molding the team to his liking. Gone are the likes of Wissam Ben Yeder, Pablo Sarabia and Quincy Promes, replaced by dynamic Rony Lopes, Lucas Ocampos and Oliver Torres. Sevilla’s attacking style is likely to be balanced at least a bit, with acquisitions of highly rated Ligue 1 central backs Jules Koundje and Diego Carlos. Sevilla and Valencia are fighting equally for the 4^th place, but Valencia might have a slight advantage due to fielding a well-gelled team from the start. Odds for Valencia to make it to top-4 are 2.50 | +150 and Sevilla 3.50 | +250, which are nicely playable – you choose which to go for!

Moving down the table to the Europa-league hopefuls, there’s a bunch of candidates relatively close to one another. Within six points in the simulations are Getafe, Athletic Bilbao, Real Betis, Real Sociedad and Villarreal. Now, Villarreal is predicted to top 6 by many oddsmakers, but their last season was catastrophic seeing them succumb to 14^th and they’ve not grown that much stronger during the summer. On top of that, their closest rivals look more competitive this time around so Villarreal is predicted only tenth in Accuscore simulations. Getafe is the highest riser, mostly due to excellent last season and a team that looked only to get better under the guidance of Pepe Bordalás. Not much has changed from last season, except for a bit of experience brought in. Getafe is in for another successful season, with odds of 4.00 | +300 for achieving top 6.

Another team grown a tad stronger during the summer is Real Betis. Especially the acquisition of prolific striker Borja Iglesias from Espanyol was a coup, while Nabil Fekir and Juanmi provide adequate support. Quite unproven manager Rubi is a questionmark, but Betis is definitely challenging for top 6 spot as well. The odds for the feat are 4.33 | +333, which makes Betis a good bet for top 6 seeding.

Going down

Surprisingly the trio going down in Accuscore simulations is almost the same as the odds indicate. Only exception is Granada, who is likely to stay up according to Accuscore’s simulations and head down by the bookmakers. Valladolid is quite simply the weakest team this season, with newly promoted Mallorca. They escaped relegation last season by four points, mostly due to Girona’s disastrous last couple of weeks. This time Valladolid is not likely to be as lucky and down they go. Odds of 2.88 | +188 are good enough for a punt. Taking the place of Granada in Accuscore’s most likely relegation candidates is Deportivo Alaves. Alaves had a successful season last time around and they climbed to 11^th. However, they head to the season with a new and unproven manager and first time ever, any expectations. The battle at the relegation line will be tough, but with odds of 3.25 | +225, Alaves is a good pick.

Accuscore’s La Liga 2019/2020 Outright Picks

To win: Real Madrid 3.40 | +240

Top-4: Valencia 2.50 | +150, Sevilla 3.50 | +250

Top-6: Getafe 4.00 | +300, Real Betis 4.33 | +333

Relegation: Valladolid 2.88 | +188, Deportivo Alaves 3.25 | +225

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Accuscore’s MLS 2020 Preview

MLS 2020

The historical 25^th season of Major League Soccer kicks off this weekend with record setting 26 teams involved. Newcomers Inter Miami and Nashville challenge the likes of Los Angeles FC and Toronto for the title, with both conferences boasting 13 teams. While there is still 34 games in the regular season, 17 home and 17 away, the teams face only 10 of 13 of their inter-conference opponents and play twice their intra-conference foes.

Last season saw Los Angeles FC to hoist the Supporters Shield as the regular season champions with 72 points and remarkably only four losses all season, only to lose to the eventual champions Seattle Sounders in the semi-final stage. Winning the title also in 2016, Seattle took the second place in the Western Conference in the regular season and narrowly beat Dallas in the first playoff-round before ousting Real Salt Lake and LAFC en route to the final against their Eastern Conference counterpart Toronto. MLS Cup 2017 winners Toronto took the fourth place in the Eastern Conference during regular season, behind New York City, Atlanta United and Philadelphia Union, but went through DC United with ease in the first playoff stage and knocked out the favorites NYC and Atlanta before the eventual 1-3 defeat by Seattle in the final.

Accuscore’s simulations allow us to take a peek in the future and see how the MLS 2020 regular season is likely to finish, with the current knowledge at hand. While the playoffs are a different world completely – and it’s a long way to October – predictions on the MLS Cup most probable winners can be made based on the simulations as well. Here is how the regular season seems at the ending point, October 4^th 2020.

 

In the West, LAFC is still the top dog challenged by Minnesota and Seattle. Compared to title winning odds, Accuscore’s simulations predict both Dallas and Colorado Rapids to make the playoffs, while Real Salt Lake and Portland Timbers fall out of the contest after the regular season. Dallas was 7^th last season and Colorado missed out on playoffs being 9th. Real Salt Lake’s fall can be seen as a surprise, as they were 3^rd last season   Otherwise the playoff-teams match the odds with only small positional changes in the top five.

 

Similar to the West, in the Eastern Conference the top remains the same in Accuscore’s simulations as it is based on championship winning odds. New York City takes the spoils once again, but the real surprise teams are Columbus Crew and Philadelphia Union. Columbus disappointed last season by falling out of the playoffs, but they are remarkably stronger this time around. Their rise in simulations vs odds is five spots, while Philadelphia – 3^rd last season – takes a playoff-berth as well. Failing to make the playoffs against the odds are New York Red Bulls and New England, 6^th and 7^th last season.

 

Accuscore’s analysis

In the Western Conference there’s one team above all others and that’s Los Angeles FC. They failed to win the Cup last year after dominating in the regular season, so they definitely have a chip on their shoulder this time around. The team still features some of the best players in the league, such as Carlos Vela and Diego Rossi and is well balanced overall. Their only goal is the Cup this season.

Minnesota and Seattle provide some challenge to LAFC on top of the Western Conference, but there are many question marks. For Minnesota it is the offense and for Seattle the defense, with plenty of changes compared to last season. Seattle showed last season that they are a team made for playoffs. The surprise inclusion of Colorado Rapids in the playoffs might have risen some eyebrows, but they are a young and talented team with key acquisitions and already looked good most of the time last season. They are certainly an underdog, but worth a watch.

In the East, New York City and Atlanta United dominate the simulations, with Toronto throwing in a punch here and there. No surprises there as the trio was in top four last season and not too much has changed. The surprise dark horse comes from Columbus. Missing out on playoffs last season caused a stir and they splashed the cash in landing a club record signing Lucas Zelarayan to man the 10-spot and to feed Gyasi Zardes up front. While Columbus might not be as star-studded as the top clubs, we are expecting them to make a push and even challenge for the title. Philadelphia is the other surprise in the simulations, but they improved heavily last season, finishing 3^rd, and will build on that with their young squad.

Accuscore’s Scottish Premiership Season 2019/20 Preview

Scotland’s Premiership – Not a surprise in sight?

After Glasgow Rangers’ sudden fall from grace, there’s only been one ruler in Scottish football and it remains so until this day. Glasgow Celtic has now won eight championships in a row and it seems futile to try and challenge them. Last season Celtic led the way by 11 points after regular season and finished off 9 points ahead of their rivals after the Championship Group. Remarkably, however, that 9 points margin is by far the smallest in the past eight years of Celtic rule. Are the winds changing in Scottish football?

According to Accuscore simulations, no. Glasgow Celtic are as clear front-runners as they’ve ever been. After Celtic, it all becomes much more interesting: Glasgow Rangers are still the second best, but they’re now facing serious challenge from the likes of Aberdeen and the Edinburgh duo Hearts & Hibernian. Could it be the first time since the beginning of time, or at least the Scottish Premier League, that the winner would be other than Celtic or Rangers? Here’s how the table is likely to look after 33 games of regular season is done.

 

Accuscore’s best Scottish eggs

According to the simulations, not much has changed up there in Scotland. The Glasgow duo are very much alike as they were last season and are still the strongest clubs around. And the challengers are the usual suspects as well. Same old, same old, but Is there any value in outright bets at all? We think so!

In Accuscore simulations, St. Johnstone and Kilmarnock have literally changed places compared to the bookmakers’ assessment, which gives a nice edge to go for the opposite selection: St. Johnstone to make it to top 6 with odds of 2.50 and Kilmarnock to fall to bottom 6 with odds of 2.30. Admittedly it’s not the sexiest of bets out there, but it’s the one that actually boasts some value.

Kilmarnock had a splendid last season, going on to challenge the Glasgow teams and finally ending up 3^rd. The manager Steve Clark got a call-up to Scottish national team and Kilmarnock now have an unproven manager Angelo Alessio. They have not grown any stronger compared to the competition and there’s a lot of questions on how the team will play after Clarke’s success. Struggles are imminent, say the simulations.

St. Johnstone, on the other hand, showed some promise gain at times, but succumbed out of the Championship Group by six points after abysmal results towards the end of the season against teams lower in the table. Long serving manager Tommy Wright has been with the team for six years and made it to top 6 in the first four. With the most reputable player Tony Watt gone to Russia, there’s some big shoes to fill, but ample replacement already available with the likes of Matty Kennedy ready to improve from last season’s six goals and six assists.

Another team sticking out from the crowd is newly (again) promoted Ross County. They’ve been up and down, but now there’s a handful of new players and they’re intending to stay up for good. It’s definitely as bad a team as the bookmakers would like us to believe, but there’s hardly any bets to go for. If you are brave or crazy, squint your eyes enough and have deep pockets, go for top 6 placement with odds of 17.00!

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Accuscore’s UEFA Champions League 2019/2020 – Team Rankings and Winning Odds

Liverpool favorites, the usual suspects challenging

 

The Champions League is back with a blast with 16 teams remaining in the most prestigious competition in European football. The coveted prize was won last year by Liverpool, who are the favorites to repeat their feat this season – they’ve gone undefeated in their domestic league for longer than a calendar year and seem to be unbeatable at the moment. The challengers are hungry though, especially with their domestic trophy cupboards full or already out of reach. By using Accuscore’s simulation engine, we can predict which teams are most likely to win and hoist the trophy on May 30^th in Istanbul.

It’s worth keeping in mind that the pairs will be drawn randomly from the quarter final stages onward, so it is impossible to make a bracket based on anything else but assumptions. Therefore for the Accuscore Team Rankings we have simulated all the teams against all the teams until the end to figure out the most likely winner and the probabilities of different clubs Champions League title.

RANK	TEAM	ACCUSCORE ODDS	WIN %	BOOKMAKER ODDS
1	Liverpool	6.75	14.8	+450 | 5.50 (1.)
	The holders are favored to win it again. They are unbeaten in EPL for more than a year now and are at least as good a team they were last season. It’s up for the others to put up a better fight than last season.
2	PSG	8.25	12.1	+750 | 8.50 (4.)
	Always up there, but never quite there. It’s time for PSG to make a push. They have some of the best players in the world and now the team is better balanced – there are work horses and fighters in addition to immense talent.
3	Bayern München	8.25	12.1	+700 | 8.00 (3.)
	The team is as talented as any challengers and changes in management have done good in shaking somewhat stale things up. They have been so close in the past, now there’s a great opportunity to go all the way.
4	Manchester City	9.00	11.11	+430 | 5.30 (2.)
	Will Pep Guardiola complete his swansong at the helm of City. Possibly the last chance to do so and the team is fantastic. Injuries and form might be an issue, as well as facing Real on the first round. Otherwise, City is all-in.
5	Juventus	10.25	9.75	+1050 | 11.50 (6.)
	Ronaldo being better than ever, the regular UCL challenger has talented yet somewhat aging squad with some raw talent supporting. Not overly impressive in Serie A, they’re still leading. A push for UCL title is at hand.
6	Barcelona	11.00	9.00	+750 | 8.50 (5.)
	Problematic start of the season, sacking the winning manager and injuries have hindered Barca from favorite to challenger. Still a talented group and if Setien gets his message through and they stay healthy, Barca will challenge.
7	Real Madrid	11.00	9.00	+1400 | 15.00 (7.)
	Some issues to start the season, but Zidane is doing what he does best. Not quite as immensely talented team as usual, but still enough to make a push with the old core leading young newcomers. Definite dark horse in the race.
8	RB Leipzig	19.00	5.25	+3300 | 34.00 (8.)
	Built very much from scratch, the team has been phenomenal in Bundesliga, challenging Bayern and Dortmund up top. Young, raw talent with a couple of mentors, similar to Ajax setup last year. With nothing to lose, could go far.
9	Tottenham	20.00	5.00	+3500 | 36.00 (9.)
	Downhill from last season’s final, Pochettino gone and Mourinho in. They’ve looked somewhat better lately, but missing Harry Kane up front is a blow. Not quite as good as last year, but Mourinho can cook up something special.
10	Atletico Madrid	32.00	3.13	+4000 | 41.00 (10.)
	Griezmann’s departure hurt more than was thought – Atletico can’t score anymore. It’s been an issue all season and they are as good as ever defensively. Hard to see them beating any big boys by fighting 0-0 battles.
11	Dortmund	32.00	3.13	+5000 | 51.00 (11.)
	One of the interesting teams to watch with a massive amount of young talent and dynamic style. Unlikely to be able to contend with the bigger clubs, but might put up a challenge early on by individual efforts.
12	Atalanta	63.00	1.59	+6600 | 67.00 (13.)
	The spark-plug of Serie A, all-out-attack-Atalanta will cause a stir in UCL. Not very structured team is as likely to fall apart as it is to score five goals a game, but they have nothing to lose and will go for the jugular. All.The.Time.
13	Valencia	75.00	1.33	+10000 | 101.00 (14.)
	Close to a disastrous season domestically (9th), Valencia are unlikely to revisit UCL next year. The current visit is likely short as well, although the first round draw was rather favorable. Lacking in all aspects, only outsiders.
14	Chelsea	80.00	1.25	+5000 | 51.00 (12.)
	Transfer ban and uncertain UCL spot for next year – no new players. Young team with a lot of potential and Frank Lampard has done decent job. Still, problems in EPL and thin squad for UCL will be too much to contend.
15	Napoli	150.00	0.67	+10000 | 101.00 (15.)
	Another disaster domestically, Napoli has fallen fast despite sacking managers and making changes. Their structure is in shambles and even with a couple of star caliber players, the games seem lost before they start.
16	Lyon	200.00	0.50	+30000 | 301.00 (16.)
	It was supposed to be the season Lyon challenges PSG – they’re now 11th. Group of talented individuals with no common goal or spirit, going all-in for UCL is their only remedy. Look for attack, attack, attack from start to finish.

 

 

Expert Strategies for Success in Sports Betting

Are you tired of losing your hard-earned money on sports betting? Looking for practical tips to improve your chances of success? Well, In the competitive world of online sports betting, having a strategic approach is crucial. It's not just about luck; it's about understanding the game and making informed decisions.

Before diving into advanced strategies, it's essential to grasp the basics. Understanding how odds work, analyzing team performance, and studying historical data can significantly enhance your betting skills. But what if there was a way to take it a step further?

Practical sports betting tips can be your secret weapon in this industry. These tips provide valuable insights and expert advice to help you become a successful bettor. By following these sports betting strategies, you can make smarter bets and increase your chances of winning big.

get ready to elevate your sports betting game with these practical tips that will revolutionize how you approach online betting!

Understanding Risk Tolerance and Goals

Assessing your risk tolerance is crucial. It helps you determine the level of bets you're comfortable with, ensuring a positive experience. You can establish boundaries that align with your financial situation by evaluating your budget and loss limit.

Setting realistic goals is another key aspect. Consider your bankroll and time commitment to define achievable objectives. This approach ensures that you don't overextend yourself or set expectations that are difficult to meet. Setting attainable goals allows you to stay motivated and focused on long-term profitability.

The relationship between risk tolerance, goals, and long-term profitability is intertwined. Understanding your risk tolerance and setting realistic goals makes it easier to manage your money effectively. Money management is essential for maintaining discipline in sports betting.

To enhance your betting strategy, consider the following tips:

1. Mind your budget: Allocate a certain amount specifically for sports betting.
2. Track your bets: Record all wagers placed, wins, losses, and any other relevant information.
3. Research and learn: Stay informed about teams, players, statistics, trends, and other factors that may influence outcomes.
4. Evaluate edges: Look for opportunities where you have an advantage over the bookmakers.
5. Have fun: Enjoy the sports betting process while keeping in mind that it's primarily entertainment.

By understanding risk tolerance and setting realistic goals based on the evaluation of these factors—money management strategies research efforts—bettors can enhance their chances of success in the long term.

Remember to read up on props as well since they offer unique opportunities for bettors seeking alternative options beyond traditional markets.

With these practical sports betting tips in mind—assessing risk tolerance and setting goals based on budgetary constraints—you can navigate the world of sports betting more confidently while optimizing your chances for success in the long run!

Conclusion

So, what's next? It's time to put these tips into action! Start by setting clear goals for yourself and establishing a disciplined bankroll management strategy. Continuously educate yourself about different sports markets, odds movements, and new strategies. Embrace the journey of learning from both successes and failures. You can become a successful sports bettor with dedication, perseverance, and a dash of luck.

FIFA World Cup 2018 - Profitable first weekend

Profitable first weekend in the World Cup

 

Even though the favorites like Brazil, Germany and Argentina didn’t performed as expected, many Accuscore predictions were spot on. Our customers who followed game predictions were able to cash in nicely by betting side value picks as well as outright winners in 1x2 betting.

 

Our predictions quite rarely show draw as the most probable outcome, so the bets in the markets to select 1x2 (home win-draw-away win) based on Accuscore predictions are usually 1 or 2. When selecting just winner based on our predictions’ highest probability, there were 7 games correct out of total 11. Draws between Spain and Portugal, Argentina and Iceland, Brazil and Switzerland as well as Mexico’s win over Germany were only games wrongly predicted. This means nice 324 dollars profit with 100 dollars bet per game.

 

You can find all of Accuscore’s picks and predictions for the World Cup from Accuscore.com!

 

If bets from moneyline markets brought good profits, few surprise results that Accuscore predicted higher probability than betting markets gave great wins for side value bettors. Especially wins for Iran and Mexico as well as the draw between Argentina and Iceland boosted the profits. Out of 11 games 7 had at least one side value bet correct. So far side value bettors have profited 845 dollars with 100 dollar bets, when following Accuscore side value predictions. This is 50% ROI in World Cup tournament so far!

 

Many fans think that first games are just first games when there is long way to go before the final is played. During the last 40 years only Spain has advanced to the World Championship when losing the first game of the tournament in 2010. Italy was only team during the same time span, that end up with draw in their opener, but still won the Championship in 1982. Accuscore predicted top four teams to be Argentina, Brazil, Germany and Uruguay. Only Uruguay came up with a win, but their performance wasn’t anything to be highlighted. Other teams continue their tournament with less than three points from the first games.

 

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Premier League Expert Analysis: Arsenal vs Manchester City

Arsenal - Manchester City

Thursday evening offers football fanatics a massive fixture in the Premier League with Arsenal hosting league leading Manchester City. Still going strong (pun intended) with Arsene Wenger at helm, Arsenal is sixth in the EPL, chasing the top-4 by 10 points and a game in hand. Manchester City on top has taken a 13-point lead over their rivals United, with also this game in hand.

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Arsenal has once again been the letdown of the season, as they’ve not managed to put up a serious challenge against the top teams. In addition, they’ve recently lost to Swansea and Bournemouth, while drawing with the likes of WBA and West Ham. Safe to say, “Wenger Out” movement has never been stronger – despite the acquisitions of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan in exchange for Alexis Sanchez.

Arsenal has won 13 and lost eight games, while drawing six. At home they’ve been a bit better, 3^rd in Premier League actually. They’ve only lost once in Emirates, winning 10 of 13 and gathering 32 points. The Gunners have scored on average 2.77 goals at home, quite a contrast to abysmal record of 1.07 on the road. Defensively they’ve been solid at home as well, allowing only 1.08 goals.

Manchester City has done what was expected of them and Pep Guardiola has built a team that plays to its strengths. Which seems to be everything on the pitch. City has lost one game in the EPL all season, when Liverpool managed a 4-3 victory at Anfield midway through January.

Otherwise City’s spotless record is ruined by road draws with Burnley and Crystal Palace, but with 23 wins in 27 games they’re sitting far ahead on the top of the league. City is also a great away team, leading the league with 10-2-1 record on the road. They’ve scored 2.23 goals on average and allowed only 0.77 on their road games. The approach has been way more defensive on the road: at home City has scored 3.57 while allowing the similar 0.71 goals per game.

The teams met only a couple of days ago in Carabao Cup final on Wembley. Manchester City took the spoils with a confident performance 0-3 and left plenty of Arsenal fans fuming. City only shot three times on goal and scored three goals, yet none can be blamed on the Arsenal keeper. City completely outplayed Arsenal and it remains to be seen if the tables have turned come Thursday evening.

Both teams have a congested schedule ahead, as they’re playing another EPL game on Sunday and then in continental competition midweek: City hosts Basel after 0-4 victory in UCL on Wednesday and Arsenal travels to Milan for 1^st leg of European League 2^nd knockout stage for Thursday. However, it’s unlikely we see any unnecessary rotation in a top tier matchup like this.

Accuscore’s Premier League Side Value picks have made fantastic profits once again this season, going 150-306 with a profit of +7382, with 100 unit even stakes!You can find all the football betting record archives and trends HERE

Accuscore Simulations

Manchester City comes out as clear favorites for their visit at the Emirates. In simulations, City wins with 63.9% probability, cementing their lead in the EPL. The game ends in a draw with 20.6% probability, while Arsenal is given only 15.6% chance to take all the three points at home. The value still lies with Manchester City, but the lines are moving fast so be quick to catch over 7% side value for the visitors!

We are likely to see some attacking football as Manchester City is likely to go for the jugular after gaining the upper hand in the previous game. In simulations the visitors score 2.59 goals on average and the home team Arsenal is likely to score as well, averaging 1.27 per simulations. Total is likely to go as high as 3.86 – despite both team’s impressive defensive records.

The most likely players to score a goal are the big guns up front, Sergio Agüero for City and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for Arsenal. Agüero scores with a 59% likelihood while Aubameyang finds the net with 40% chance. City’s support is strong with Raheem Sterling (36.76%), Leroy Sane (25.74%) and Kevin De Bruyne (24.62%). Arsenal somewhat lacks in that department, with only Aaron Ramsey closing in on 20% with 17.72 percent probability to score.

Expert Picks

As the noose tightens around Arsenal’s neck, City are playing with no real pressure and took the minor domestic cup with ease just a couple of days ago ahead of their hosts. No matter how you look at this game, City is the most likely winner here. Check the best odds to play from oddsportal.com or similar!

• Manchester City to win, 63.9 % - take the home win with odds of 1.57 | -177 or better
• Over 3.0 goals, 54% - take over 3.0 goals with odds of 1.86 | -116
• Agüero to score.59% - odds of 1.70 | -143
• Aubameyang to score,40% - odds of 2.5 | +150

More Accuscore analysis, expert picks and predictions available ataccuscore.eu!

Soccer Hot Trends: Premier League Profit Party

Written by AccuScore Staff
Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

Soccer Betting Profits Keep Pouring in

As Champions League continues this week to the knock out phase, it is a good time to look back and review how well Accuscore’s soccer predictions have performed over the past few weeks. Currently, we predict every single game form 10 different leagues, as MLS off season continues.

Since the last checkpoint in the middle of January, the total profit when betting 100 units to every game with any side value is +7349. This brings up the total profit since start of the season +13400! It's been a good month since we last checked in and told you to get on the ride.

If we placed bets only for the games where our predictions showed over 20% side value, the results were even better. This type of betting strategy brought +9138 dollars pure profit into your pockets. When reviewing all games since start of the season with over 20% side value, the total profit sums up to +20,076 dollars!

During these last weeks the best accuracy of predictions was achieved when betting all side value games in the Premier League. That resulted +3764 dollars profit. EPL is the single best league for profit generation since start of the season as the magic number reached over +8500 right now.

Accuscore accuracy has been very good across the board, as every league generated profit in over 20% side value bets, except Laliga. There, the losses were not so great, only 250 compared to overall profit +9138 dollars…

Two other leagues with solid accuracy were Serie A and Ligue 1, where the profit from last four weeks were +1828 and +1424 when betting those over 20% side value bets. It is worth to mention that the accurate predictions in Serie A have provided profits in every checkpoint during this season.

Even though total bets were slightly unprofitable - 209 dollars from all games - the total profit since start of the season is climbing very nicely. Our customers who bet 100 dollars for every total and every side value over 20% based on our predictions would have received so far over +34k pure profit to their pockets. We don’t expect this trend to change during the rest of the season. So, if you didn't listen last time, don't miss the boat now.

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