2018 NFL Playoffs: Eagles vs Falcons Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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2018 NFL Playoffs: Eagles vs Falcons - Divisional Round Analyst Pick

Back-to-back weekends with NFL action on a Saturday? We'll take it. We came through last Saturday letting you know Atlanta covering on the road in L.A. against the Rams was a lock. What's next for Atlanta?

Let's take a closer look at this weekend's Falcons' matchup -- again on the road, this time against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Our NFL Expert made two picks for Wildcard Weekend and got both right: Panthers +7 and Falcons +6.5...scroll to the bottom for his Analyst Pick for the Divisional Round...

Vegas Odds

With no Carson Wentz at QB for the Philadelphia Eagles, the Atlanta Falcons opened as 3-point favorites. The spread hasn't moved from there. The total opened at 44 before dropping quite a bit following some public action.

Betting Line: Atlanta Falcons -3
Total: 41.5

At the time of publication, 55 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Falcons.

54 percent of the action on the total has been on the UNDER.

AccuScore Betting Trends: Wild Card Weekend
• Against the Spread: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +790 profit)
• Over/Under Picks: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +1800 profit)
...All of AccuScore's NFL 2018 Playoffs Picks: NFL Playoffs Picks (includes free full forecasts for Eagles vs Falcons)

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Betting Trends
• Atlanta is 2-5 against the spread [ATS] in its last seven games in the divisional round.
• Philadelphia is 5-1 straight up [SU] in its last six games in the divisional round.
• Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games at home.
• Atlanta is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
• Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
• The OVER is 4-0 in Atlanta's last four divisional playoffs games.
• The OVER is 4-0 in Philadelphia's last four games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.

What to Watch For

Force 'Em to Throw It: The Falcons' defense was solid last weekend against a potent Rams' offense. The Rams' offense thrives when it's able to mix-and-match with its pass-and-run game, but the Falcons forced them to beat them through the air. Rams QB Jared Goff threw the ball 45 times, becoming predictable and allowing the athletic Falcons linebackers to make an impact on the game. If Nick Foles throws the ball 45 times for Philly, an Atlanta win is guaranteed.

Foles is projected to finish with 226 passing yards on 23 completions and 1 TD.

Falcons' Offense: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan was efficient last week against the Rams, finishing with 200-plus yards completing 21-of-30 throws. The Falcons also ran the ball for over 100 yards. Above all, though, WR Julio Jones looked like himself after struggling with injuries in the final weeks of the regular season, catching nine passes for 94 yards against the Rams.

Ryan is projected to finish with 262 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages more than three times as many TDs as INTs. Jones is projected to finish with 91 yards on 8 receptions; he averages 0.5 TDs per sim, meaning he finds the end-zone in every other simulated matchup.

Analyst's Pick
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More>> NFL Playoffs Analyst Pick: Viking vs Saints

2018 NFL Playoffs: Vikings vs Saints Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

2018 NFL Playoffs: Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints - Divisional Round Analyst Pick

Our NFL Expert made two picks for Wildcard Weekend and got both right: Panthers +7 and Falcons +6.5...scroll to the bottom for his Analyst Pick for the Divisional Round...

The Minnesota Vikings very well could end up with a dream-like season if they ultimately advance to the Super Bowl being played in their home stadium. To get there, though, they'll have to get past the New Orleans Saints this weekend.

Let's take a closer look at the matchup and where the value is.

Vegas Odds
Minnesota opened as 3.5-point favorites before shooting up to -5 in some books. The spread has settled at -4.5 in most books. The total opened at 45 before settling in about a point higher.

Betting Line: Minnesota Vikings -4.5
Total: 46.5

At the time of publication, 57 percent of the public was taking the points and taking the Saints.

61 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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AccuScore Betting Trends: Wild Card Weekend
• Against the Spread: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +790 profit)
• Over/Under Picks: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +1800 profit)
...All of AccuScore's NFL 2018 Playoffs Picks: NFL Playoffs Picks

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Betting Trends
• Minnesota is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 5 games at home.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
• New Orleans is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.

What to Watch For

QB Play: Case Keenum will start in his first playoff game this weekend, and playing in front of a home crowd should help to calm any added nerves. He threw for eight TDs and just two INTs in seven homes games this season. On the other side, we've got Drew Brees who went 4-4 straight up (SU) and ATS this season on the road; Brees is 1-4 SU in his career on the road, throwing for eight TDs and five INTs.

Keenum is projected to finish with 261 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Brees is projected to finish with 282 passing yards, 2+ TDs and 1 INT.

Weapons: In last week's matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Saints, a couple of Brees' weapons stood out. Wide receiver Michael Thomas came up huge late in the game, finishing with eight catches for 131 yards. WR Ted Ginn Jr. was clutch in the final quarter of play, finishing with 115 yards and 1 TD on four catches.

Thomas is projected to finish with 69 yards on seven receptions; Ginn is projected to finish with 49 yards on four receptions.

Analyst's Pick
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Accuscore’s Most Reliable NFL Picks in 2019

Remember NFL season 2019? There were plenty of surprises and plenty of let-downs, with Patriots crashing out of playoffs early and Cowboys, Rams nor Chargers even making it to the post season. Predicting those unpredictable is extremely hard, but Accuscore still managed to make the best of it, as is depicted in the NFL Pickwatch article. But which team was the most reliant one and should we expect the same trend next season? And on the other hand, which team caused the biggest losses and was indeed the most unpredictable, at least for Accuscore’s algorithms.

Accuscore is making NFL picks for each and every game – among others – and the results can be tracked more than 10 years in the past. Let’s have a look at last season’s selections.

Point Spread Cash Cows

There were two teams standing out in predicting the NFL point spread: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs. Accuscore predicted the point spread correct 13 times in Rams’ 16 games and 14 times in Chiefs 19 games, making the percentages 81% and 74% and profits of +970 and +810.

On the other end of the spectrum were Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars. Green Bay was a serious buzzkill all of the last season and from their 18 games Accuscore only got 4 correct with one push, resulting in -1030 deficit. Jaguars was not that much better, with a result of -710 and 5-11 record in Accuscore’s Point Spread predictions.

Notably, only nine teams returned a negative profits from the point spread, the total adding up to +3710.

Over/Under Heroes and Zeroes

The NFL over under lines seem to have been much closer to truth in Vegas bookmakers’ papers. There was still a couple of very profitable teams, headlined by Seattle Seahawks with 13-5 record and +750 profit and 72% hit-rate. In the other end, Chicago Bears totaled a lousy -1020 and a record of 3-12-1. The rest of the teams were rather closely packed in between and it will be intriguing to see how the new season will play out regarding the totals and the lines set by the bookmakers.

Game Winners

Not taking the odds into consideration is not the best measurement or advice when it comes to betting, but the bragging rights can be achieved by knowing that of course Tennessee will beat the Patriots. Accuscore was astonishingly accurate in the match winner prediction, getting 67% correct from all the games, with a record of 179-88. There was some fluctuation here as well: Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins games resulted in over 80% of correct winners predicted by Accuscore, while Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans crashed well under 50%.

Overall these money line picks would’ve returned a profit of +3095 with an even 100 stake.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles: NFL Sunday Night Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Cowboys vs Eagles: Sunday Night NFL Pick

Sunday night features an intriguing matchup on the NFL slate as the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys host the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium. Philly will look to avenge their OT loss the last time they were on the road against Dallas.

Vegas Odds
There has been very little movement on the total since it oped at 47, but the spread shifted two-to-three points depending on where you're looking. The Eagles opened as 3-point favorites before settling down at -5.5.

Betting Line: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5/-6
Total: 47.5/48

At the time of publication, about 66 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Philly.

68 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games.
- The Cowboys are 9-3 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games at home.

All of AccuScore's NFL Picks, including a free preview of the Lions vs the Bears... All of AccuScore's NFL Sunday Picks

What to Watch For
While the Eagles are heavy favorites in Vegas and in the public's eye, AccuScore sim data has the Cowboys actually winning over 50 percent of simulations. How could our data and Vegas differ so much in their projections?

The Cowboys have the second-best rushing attack at home and the variables seem to be weighing that statistic heavily.

Alfred Morris is projected to finish with 71 yards on 16 carries; Darren McFadden is projected to finish with 30 yards on 7 carries; Dak Prescott is projected to finish with close to 40 yards on 5 attempts. Prescott has the highest probability of all Cowboys to run it into the end zone.

With the eye test, Philly looks unbeatable. On paper, though, things aren't as perfect. They only have a +6 turnover margin, with Carson Wentz holding a 23:5 TD:INT ratio.

In AccuScore sims, turnovers play the biggest factor -- with Dallas actually winning 67 percent of sims in which they commit fewer turnovers.

Analyst's Pick
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Free Analyst Pick: Chiefs vs Redskins on MNF

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Monday Night Football: Chiefs vs Redskins - Analyst Pick

We've got a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend alert in this Monday night's matchup at Arrowhead Stadium between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs opened as 9-point favorites before settling down at 7 Sunday afternoon. The total's stayed consistent at 49 or 49.5.

AccuScore’s Full MNF Forecast & Picks

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore SIm Data

One thing's for sure -- the Chiefs are fairly heavy favorites. Vegas odds have the Chiefs getting -340 odds on the money line, indicating a 77.27 percent chance of winning. Kansas City wins 77.3. percent of simulated matchups, on par with the probabilities suggested by Vegas odds.

The spread's where the value is at in this matchup. The sim data actually has the home side favored by 10 points, indicating a whole lot of value on the 7-point spread.

The Chiefs cover a 7-point spread in 55.4 percent of simulations, a four-star AccuScore hot trend. The 55.4 percent probability would have had the odds at -125, showing the value on the -110 most books are offering for the 7-point spread.

AccuScore Betting Trends
• All Totals Picks: 35-23-4, 60.3% +970
• All Picks Against the Spread: 33-26-3 55.9% +440
• All Side Value Picks: 32-38, +614
• All Side Value, Spread & Totals Picks: +2024 profit

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Top Non-AccuScore Betting Trends
• The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games.
• The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up (SU) in their last 6 games.
• The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a SU win.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Chiefs' last 6 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 17 of the Redskins' last 24 games.

What to Watch For

Washington QB Kirk Cousins was magnificent in last week's victory with 365 passing yards and three TDs, completing 25 of his 30 attempts.

He's projected to finish Monday night's game with 298 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. In the 22 percent of simulated matchups in which the Redskins win, Cousins averages 2.12 TDs to 0.44 INTs; in the losses, he's at 1.62 TDs to 0.82 INTs.

Free Analyst's Pick

The favorite between these two sides has covered ATS in four of the last five meetings, and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings.

We'll go with the Chiefs covering, and the OVER. Safe play might be to buy a half-point on the 7-point spread to make it 6.5.

Jaguars vs Texans: Analyst Pick - NFL Week 1

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL Week 1 Analyst Pick: Jaguars vs Texans

Despite the craziness of Hurricane Harvey, this Sunday's matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans is still scheduled to be played. The Texans head into their Week 1 matchup as 5.5-point favorites with the total set at 39.5.

All ofAccuScore’s Week 1 NFL Expert Picks

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sim Data

The Texans opened as 4.5-point favorites, moving to 5.5 on Friday. AccuScore simulations, however, have the line at just 3, indicating a pick on the Jags to cover.

The Jaguars cover a 5.5-point spread in about 61 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Most books in Vegas are offering Jacksonville +5.5 at -110, indicating about a 52 percent chance of happening.

The Jags are getting +210 on the money line, indicating about a 32 percent chance of happening. Jacksonville wins 46 percent of sims. AccuScore data would have listed their money line odds at about +115 to +120, offering a whole lot of value on the +210.

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What to Watch For

Blake Bortles is projected to start for the Jags and that's actually a fairly important variable in projecting a more competitive matchup than do Vegas odds. He struggled overall with turnovers last season, but had an above-average performance against Houston. In two matchups, he fnished with 357 total yards and 2 TDs and 2 INTs.

Bortles is projected to to finish with 199 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and a passer rating of 95.2.

Key Betting Trend

The Jaguars are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five road games vs the Texans.

Analyst's Pick

The Jaguars are 1-9 straight up (SU) in their last 10 road games. They're also 5-5 ATS in those same games. We'll take the Jags to cover late.

NFL Analyst Pick: Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers: Analyst Pick

Week 10 of the NFL wraps up at Bank of America stadium as the Carolina Panthers host the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins head into the matchup after two straight losses -- against the Ravens and Raiders -- while the Panthers enter MNF after two straight wins over the Buccaneers and Falcons.

Vegas Odds
Carolina opened up as 10-point favorites before settling at -9. The total dropped to 38/38.5 after opening at 39.5.

Betting Line: Carolina Panthers -9
Total: 38 / 38.5

At the time of publication, about 54 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Dolphins. 61 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
-The Dolphins are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games when playing Carolina.
-The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Carolina.

All of AccuScore's Monday Night Picks & Projections: All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

What to Watch For
Following RB Jay Ajayi's trade to Philadelphia, Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams shared the load to combined for 86 yards and no TDs in Week 9. Miami has yet to score a rushing TD this entire season.

Drake is projected to finish with 51 yards on 4 carries -- averaging 0.4 TDs per sim. Williams is projected to finish with 25 yards on 6 carries -- averaging 0.2 TDs per sim. Even both of them combined don't provide much confidence in the Dolphins scoring on the ground this week.

17 has been the magic number for Carolina over the past few weeks, with three straight opponents scoring exactly that.

The Dolphins are projected to score 16 points Monday night.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL MNF: Falcons at Buccaneers - Analyst Preview & Picks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL Monday Night Picks: Falcons vs Bucs

Week 15 in the NFL wraps up Monday night in Tampa Bay as the Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons in a matchup that's projecting to be fairly high-scoring, with only one other game on the week's slate having a higher total listed in Vegas (Patriots-Steelers with a total set at 54.5).

Vegas Odds

The Falcons opened up at 4-point favorites before some heavy public action pushed it up to -6.5 in most books; the total creeped up from 47.5 to 49.

Betting Line: Atlanta Falcons -6.5
Total: 49

At the time of publication, 65 percent of the public were laying the points and taking the Falcons.

63-plus percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

Betting Trends

- The Falcons are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games.
The Falcons are 6-2 straight up (SU) in their last eight road games.
-The total has gone OVER in six of the Falcons' last nine games vs the Bucs.

What to Watch For

NFC South: The fate of the NFC South is yet to be decided with three teams still having a chance at the playoffs. The Falcons, heading into the matchup having won four of their last five, will treat this as a must-win. Tevin Coleman suffered a concussion last week and he's the only big-name player that'll be potentially out Monday night. QB Matt Ryan finished with 221 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs in last week's 20-17 win over New Orleans.

Ryan is projected to finish this week's matchup with 284 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

Struggling Buccaneers: Tampa Bay has dropped three straight heading into this matchup. They've been a major disappointment this year after a nine-win season last year. In Jameis Winston's 42 career games, he has turned the ball over 53 times – second-most in the league since his 2015 rookie season.

Winston is projected to finish with 267 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL MNF: Packers vs Lions - Free Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Packers vs Lions: Monday Night Football - Free Analyst Pick

We weren't very accurate with our Sunday analyst game pick, but we're ready to make up for that loss with Monday Night Football and a FREE Analyst Pick. The Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers -- coming off a bye week -- host the Detroit Lions in a divisional matchup.

Vegas Odds

The matchup actually opened as a pick 'em before the Lions settled in as 2-point road favrotites. The total creeped up a half-point to 43.5.

Betting Line: Detroit Lions -2
Total: 43.5

At the time of publication, about 63 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Lions. 60 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
-The Packers are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 games.
-The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Lions' last 18 games.

AccuScore has picks against the spread, on the moneyline, Totals and player projections for every game...
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What to Watch For

The Lions are in the top half of the league in turnover margin, with QB Matt Stafford recording zero INTs on the season so far. Their defense ranks No. 3 in takeaways.

Detroit's defense is projeted to force two turnovers Monday night, with the simulations leaning towards two INTs as opposed to any forced fumbles.

Looking at this matchup, the deciding factor just might come down to how well the Lions defend against the run. They're No. 6 in the league in containing the ground attacking, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry (ypc).

The three main backs for Green Bay -- Aaron Jones, Ty Montgomery, and Aaron Ripkowski -- are projected to finish with a combined 126 rushing yards. Each player averages at least 4.5 ypc in the sims.

With Green Bay coming off a bye, QB Brett Hundley had an extra week to prepare for this matchup. Given how he's been playing in place of Rodgers, it's much needed preparation time. This by itself could be a huge factor knowing the the Lions are coming off a physical game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Hundley is projected to finish with 163 yards, 2 INTs and 1 TD.

Analyst's Pick

Lions cover on the road.

It's not the most glamorous pick, but one side has a QB and the other side doesn't. Sort of. The extra week off could be huge for Hundley, but the sims have more faith in a Detroit defense that'll look to pressure the QB.

NFL MNF: Week 2 - Giants vs Lions Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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All of AccuScore’s NFL Monday Night Football Picks

Monday Night Football: Giants vs Lions

It's Week 2 and we're back to a normal weekly slate of games which means only one MNF matchup from now on -- this version featuring the Detroit Lions and New York Giants.

The Giants are a 3-point favorite after opening as 4.5-point favorites. The total's settled at 42 after opening at 43.5.

What to Watch For

New York's defense actually had a strong performance against Dallas in Week 1. They put pressure on a mobile QB and get to face a much less-frustrating QB in that manner in Week 2.

The Giants held the Cowboys to about 5.5 yards per play in Week 1; Dallas averaged 6 yards per play last season.

AccuScore NFL Betting Trends:

• Against the Spread Picks: 18-11-1, +590
• Totals Picks: 19-8-3, +1020
• Moneyline Picks: 21-9, +263
• Side Value Picks: 18-11, +695
• ALL AccuScore Picks - Profit: +2,568

Non-AccuScore Betting Trends

• The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC East.
• The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Lions’ last 12 games.
• The Giants are 2-5 SU in their last seven games at night.

Analyst's Pick

Four-star (out of four) hot trend alert against the spread: Need we say any more?

Note: Our analyst is 3-1 in his NFL analyst picks this season with a total profit of +222 units, assuming 100 unit wager on each pick...

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NFL Preview: Giants vs Seahawks: Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Seattle Seahwawks at New York Giants: Analyst Preview & Pick

After winning their first game of the season last week, the New York Giants (1-5) get set to host the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) this Sunday at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands. The Giants haven't had much go right this season, leading with the Odell Beckham Jr. injury. The Giants finally got a win, though, and that's already had an interesting impact on the betting market.

Betting Line: Seattle Seahawks -4
Moneyline Odds: Seahawks -210, Giants +175
Total: 39.5

Click Here for All of AccuScore's Week 7 NFL Picks

Vegas Odds

Seattle opened Week 7 as 8-point favorites. Over the past few days, the public has pushed that line down to -4, with the majority of the public overreacting to the Giants' win last week.

The total has stay consistent, settling at 39.5 after opening at 39.

Betting Trends
• The Giants are 0-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games at home against a West Cost team.
• The Giants are 2-10 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games as home underdogs.
• The UNDER is 6-1 in the Giants' last seven games on field turf.

What to Watch For
Let's give credit where it's due -- the Giants pulled off an impressive win last week against the Denver Broncos as two-TD underdogs.

No Odell, no Brandon Marshall, and no Sterling Shepard. QB Eli Manning finished with just 128 yards through the air, but it was RB Orleans Darkwa who stole the show. Darkwa finished with 117 yards on the ground against the No.1 run defense in the league.

Darkwa is projected to finish Sunday's game with 21 rushing yards on 4 carries.

Manning is projected to finish with 246 passing yards, averaging almost as many INTs (0.7) as TDs (0.9) in the sims.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL Saturday Pick: Packers vs Vikings

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Saturday NFL Football - Packers vs Vikings at Lambeau

Week 16 in the NFL has a somewhat funky schedule with no Thursday night game, but some games scattered through Saturday and Sunday. Let's take a closer look at the Vikings-Packers matchup at Lambeau, with QB Aaron Rodgers officially on the IR for the remainder of the season.

All of AccuScore's NFL picks
Our computer has simulated every game 10,000 times like it does every week. Entering Week 16, the computer is 118-93-11, +1460 on all Totals picks this season: Week 16 NFL picks

Vegas Odds
Minnesota opened as heavy 10-point favorites before some public action pushed the line down a bit to -9. The total has stayed consistent at 40.5.

Betting Line: Minnesota Vikings -9
Total: 40.5

At the time of publication, 54 percent of the public were taking the points and picking the Packers.

68 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
• The total has gone UNDER in 16 of the Vikings’ last 21 games vs NFC North teams.
• The Vikings are 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games.

What to Watch For

Playoff Picture: One team might be looking ahead to next season already, but the Vikings will be treating this as a must-win since they're still chasing the Philadelphia Eagles for home-field advantage in the postseason. They dominated Cincy last week 33-7, with their run defense leading the way -- ranked No. 2 in the NFL.

The Vikings' defense is projected to force two-plus takeaways in Saturday's matchup, to go along with two QB sacks.

Betting on the Total: With the total at 40.5, we've got a tricky situation. On one hand, the Vikings' defense makes it look like the UNDER is the play -- can the Packers score multiple TDs?

But, at the same time, Minnesota is stll a top-10 offense this season and averages 24 points per game on the road. From week 13-to-15, QB Brett Hundley led Green Bay and the team averaged 25 points per game for those games.

Hundley is projected to finish with 191 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Green Bay averages about 13 points per simulated matchup.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL Sunday: LA Rams at Ten Titans Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL Sunday: Week 16 - LA Rams at Tennessee Titans

The Los Angeles Rams may have secured the NFC West division title last week with their road win in Seattle, but they'll be looking to keep this remarkable season going on the right track as they head to Tennessee for a matchup with the Titans. These two sides haven't played each other since 2013, when the Rams won 28-21 still representing the city of St. Louis.

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Our computer has simulated every game 10,000 times like it does every week. Entering Week 16, the computer is 118-93-11, +1460 profit on all Over/Under picks this season: Week 16 NFL picks

Vegas Odds
The spread has stayed steady since the Rams opened as 6.5-point favorites. The total dropped about 1.5 points in most books since opening at 49.

Betting Line: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 Total:47.5

At the time of publication, 68 percent of the public were laying the points and picking the Rams.

63 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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What to Watch For
Playoff Picture: Mariota finished last week's 25-23 loss to the San Francisco 49ers completing 23-of-33 passes for 241 yards and 2 TDs. Mariota connected successfully with seven different receivers.

Mariota is projected to finish with 221 passing yards, 1 TD, and 31 rushing yards on 4 attempts.

Runnin' Wild: Rams RB Todd Gurley had himself a game last week, finishing with 4 TDs and 152 yards on 21 carries. The Rams dominated the Seahawks in Seattle, winning 42-7, and Gurley showed why he's one of the best as he went practically untouched on a 57-yard run. Tennessee is solid against the run, but it's nothing Gurley can't handle.

Gurley is projected to finish with 116 yards on 18-to-19 carries and 1 TD.

Analyst's Pick
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Saturday's Analyst Preview: Packers vs Vikings Pick

NFL Thanksgiving 2017: Odds, Preview & Analyst Picks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL Thanksgiving 2017: Vikings at Lions

We've got a fun, competitive matchup to kick off Thanksgiving Thursday as the Minnesota Vikings -- fresh off a convincing 24-7 win over the LA Rams -- host the Detroit Lions in a matchup that has some direct implications to the playoff picture. The Lions, known for always playing on Thanksgiving day, have won their last four matchups on this holiday, including a 16-13 win over Minnesota last season.

Vegas Odds
The game actually opened as a pick 'em before the Vikings settled in as 3-point favorites. The total hasn't seen much movement since opening at 45.5.

All Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks: Click Here for All of AccuScore's Week 7 NFL Picks

Betting Line: Minnesota Vikings -3
Total: 45

At the time of publication, about 60 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Minny.

65 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
• The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings' last eight games vs the Lions.
• The Vikings are 2-5 straight up (SU) in their last seven games on the road vs the Lions.
• The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings' last 10 games on the road vs the Lions.

What to Watch For

These two sides played back in Week 4 when the Lions won 14-7 in a matchup that featured some solid defense. The Vikings ended up turning the ball over three times in that game -- resulting in 11 points for Detroit.

The Lions are projected to have 1 takeaway Thursday, with a slightly higher probability of a pick than a recovered fumble.

We've got one team that's absolutely rolling, and another that's still in the thick of things. So why does AccuScore think the Lions have a good chance at pulling off the upset this week?

A lot of this comes down to some recent streaks. The Lions have beaten the Vikings three straight times and Detroit has won four straight on Thanksgiving. The Lions also have covered the spread in five straight Thanksgiving games. Add in the fact that they're on a three-game winning streak, and the momentum just adds more confidence to the pick.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL Thursday: Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints - Free Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Falcons vs Saints - NFL Thursday Odds & Analyst Pick

Week 14 in the NFL kicks off Thursday night in Atlanta as the Falcons host the New Orleans Saints on a weekend where the Saints will look to sneak into second place in the NFC -- with either the Eagles or Vikings loss. Atlanta, on the other hand, needs to win to stay in the wild card race.

Vegas Odds
There has been a lot of movement on the spread since New Orleans opened as 4-point favorites. Some books even had the spread switch completely to the other side, moving five points to make the Falcons a 1-point favorite. At the time of publication, though, most books across Vegas had this matchup as a pick 'em.

The total opened at 54.5 before dropping a couple points.

Betting Line: Pick 'Em or New Orleans Saints -1
Total: 52

At the time of publication, close to 57 percent of the public were taking New Orleans on the road.

56 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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Betting Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of New Orleans' last 15 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 25 games

What to Watch For

Public Action: According to a recent report, publicly backed teams are just 4-8-1 in Thursday night games this season. With the Saints getting the majority of the public action, there's some solace in knowing the simulation data is supporting the home side -- and going against Vegas.

Backs Running Wild: New Orleans RB Albin Kamara had nine carries for 60 yards and two TDs and caught five of six targets for 66 yards in last week's 31-21 win over the Carolina Panthers. His production has been ridiculous, especially when you consider he never really gets close to 20 touches. It's practically a guarantee of late that he'll find the end zone.

Matty Ice: Falcons QB Matt Ryan completed 16 of 29 passes for 173 yards during last week's14-9 loss to the Vikings. Ryan was pretty, pretty bad last week, recording his lowest total yardage for the season. Ryan is projected to finish Thursday night's game with 289 yards, 2 TDs and a win.

FREE Analyst's Pick

Analyst Pick: Atlanta covering/winning.

AccuScore has all expert picks for NFL Thursday, Sunday and Monday all live: All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

NFL Thursday: Ravens vs Dolphins Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Ravens vs Dolphins: TNF Analyst Pick

This week's episode of Thursday Night Football features a pair of teams looking to get a win and get back in the playoff hunt. The Baltimore Ravens host the Miami Dolphins having won seven of the last eight meetings between the two sides.

Vegas Odds

The total has stayed consistent at 48.5 since the line opened, but the spread has dropped from -6 to -4.5 for Philly.

Betting Line: Baltimore Ravens -3
Total: 37

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Betting Trends

• The Dolphins are 1-6 straight up (SU) in their last seven games against the Ravens.
• The Dolphins are 0-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against the Ravens.
• The Dolphins are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games at night.
• The total has gone OVER in four of the Ravens' last five games

What to Watch For

For the Dolphins, their best chance at staying competitive in this matchup is with their defense. They're giving up just 82 yards per game on the ground, good for No. 6 in the league. The Baltimore offensive line is banged up and we should see the Miami pressuring the QB early and often.

The Dolphins' defense average 1.3 forced turnovers per simulated matchup, with a much higher chance of an INT than a forced fumble.

Matt Moore threw a pair of TDs in the Dolphins' 31-28 win over New York last week. Moore was above-average last season when stepping in for QB Ryan Tannehill, finishing with a TD:INT ratio of 8:3 in three games.

Moore is projected to finish Thursday night's matchup with 246 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL Thursday: Steelers vs Titans Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers: TNF Analyst Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't necessarily looked dominant in every quarter of every game, but they are what their record says they are. 7-2 sitting atop the AFC with the New England Patriots. The Steelers will look for their fifth straight win when they host the Tennessee Titans Thursday night to kick off Week 11 in the NFL.

Vegas Odds
There has been practically no movement on the spread or total since they opened Monday night.

Betting Line: Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Total: 44

At the time of publication, the public was split even on the spread. 60 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

AccuScore has all picks for Thursday & Week 11, including a free forecast with picks, trends and player projections: All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

Betting Trends
-Tennessee is 0-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last four games in November. -Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS vs teams with a winning record. The Titans are 6-3. -The UNDER is 7-0 in the Steelers' last seven games after recording fewer than than 90 rushing yards rushing in their previous game.They had just 88 rushing yards (80 by Le'veon Bell) last week against the Indianapolis Colts.

What to Watch For
Pittsburgh improved to 5-1 on the road last week after coming back from down 14 to win 20-17 over the Colts. QB Ben Roethlisberger enters Week 11 completing about 61 percetn of his passes with a passer rating of 83.8 -- his lowest in almost a decade. He clearly comes through, though, when it counts the most.

Roethlesberger is projected to finish with 269 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages just 0.6 INTs per simulation.

Titans RB DeMarco Murray finally had himself a game in Week 10, finish with 2 TDs to help Tennessee win 24-20. Although he's coming off a strong performance where he carried the ball 14 times and added 4 receptions, he has only gone over 14 rushes once this season. He's a goal-line threat, though, and there's always value in that.

He's projected to finish with 60 yards on 16 carries. He averages just 0.3 TDs per sim.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL TNF Analyst Pick: Eagles at Panthers - Week 6

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL Thursday - Panthers vs Eagles

Thursday night NFL action in this week's slate features a pair of 4-1 teams looking to keep momentum trending the right way. The Panthers are slight 3-to-3.5-point favorites, getting the nod as the home side in what's projected as a tight matchup.

Date/Time: Thursday, 10/12 at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Spread: Panthers -3.5
Total: 45.5

Vegas Odds
There really hasn't been a whole lot of movement on the line, Vegas and the public expecting a close matchup Thursday night.

The line opened at -3 for Carolina, moving up just a half-point in some books across Vegas. Same for the total, up a half-point to 45.5.

Betting Trends
• The Eagles are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games.
• The Eagles are 6-1 straight up (SU) in their last seven games.
• The Eagles 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER seven of the Eagles' last 10 games.
• The Panthers are 1-3-2 in their last six games at home.

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- All NFL Picks vs the Spread: 43-30-4, 58.9% +1,000
- All Side Value Picks: 44-31, 58.7% +1800
- All Totals Picks: 44-29-4, 60.3% +1210
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All of AccuScore's Week 6 NFL Picks

What to Watch For
Trouble on the O-line: As John Breech of CBS Sports first pointed out, the absence of offensive lineman Lane Johnson has the potential to be a huge game changer this week; Johnson suffered a concussion in Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals and is projected to be out Thursday night on a short week.

Why's that such a big deal? Johnson has been in the lineup for 11 of Wentz's 21 career starts.

In those 11 games, Wentz has a 9-2 record, 65.7 completion percentage, 2,766 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 99.9 passer rating.

He went 2-8 in the games without Johnson, looking like a completely different product on the field. In those 10 games, he went 2-8 and threw twice as many INTs (12) as TDs (6).

Wentz is projected to finish Thursday's game with 261 yards, averaging 1.3 TDs to 0.8 INTs in sims.

Ground Game: Philly's run defense has actually been solid this year -- containing the likes of Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt so far this season. The Eagles gave up some late yardage on the ground to the Chiefs and Chargers, but for the most part have been consistently above average in that category.

The Panthers are projected to finish with at least 1 rushing TD.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL Week 2 Picks - Analyst

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL Sunday – Analyst’s NFL Week 2 Picks

There are multiple matchups on this Sunday's Week 2 NFL slate that feature Vegas and AccuScore on different sides of the money line.

Let's take a closer look at a couple of these games, and the value AccuScore sim data is providing. Make sure to check out all our simulations because these aren't the only matchups in which our data and Vegas odds differ on the favorite(s): All of AccuScore’s NFL Week 2 Picks.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

At the time of publication, the Falcons are 3-point favorites with the total set at 55. Atlanta's listed at -155 on the money line, indicating a 60-to-61 percent chance of winning.

AccuScore sim data, however, has the Packers as slight road favorites.

Green Bay wins about 54 percent of simulations; the sim data would have listed GB at -115, indicating a good amount of value on the +135 listed in Vegas. Those odds indicate about a 42 percent chance of winning.

Why Green Bay? Atlanta is still calibrating to two new coordinators and Aaron Rodgers is pretty, pretty good at taking advantage of mistakes.

Betting Trends
• In two games vs GB last season, ATL QB Matt Ryan threw for 680 yards, 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He's projected to finish Sunday's game with 290 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.
• The Packers are 6-14 against the spread (ATS) in their last 20 games against the NFC South.
• The Falcons are 7-1 straight up (SU) and ATS in their last eight games in Week 2.

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Washington Redskins @ Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are slight favorites at home, laying 2.5 points at the time of publication and listed at -140 on the money line. The odds indicate about a 58.3 percent chance of winning for L.A.

AccuScore simulations, however, are showing quite a bit of value on the visiting Washington roster. We've got a four-star (out of four) hot trend alert as the Redskins cover a 2.5-to-3-point spread in over 55 percent of simulations.

They're listed at +120 on the money line in most books, indicating a 45 percent winning probability.

The sims actually have Washington as the slight favorites, winning 52 percent of simulated matchups. The data would have listed Washington at -110, making a wager on them fairly attractive.

Why Washington? Looking back at the last handful of games between the two franchises, the underdog is 10-4 ATS. Tough to go against a trend like that, especially with simulation data suggesting much of the same.

Betting Trends
• Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after an ATS loss.
• Washington is 5-0 ATS after allowing less than 90 rushing yards.
• Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.
• Washington is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road matchups.

The Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record.

NFL Wild Card Saturday: Rams vs Falcons Odds, Picks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL Wild Card Saturday: LA Rams vs Atlanta Falcons

NFL on a Saturday? Yup, that's exactly what we've got this weekend as the NFL slate gives us two matchups on a Saturday for wild card weekend.

Let's take a closer look at the matchup in Los Angeles that should have plenty of public and sharp action. The Rams, in just their second season in L.A., get set to host the Atlanta Falcons at the LA Memorial Coliseum.

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Vegas Odds

The Rams opened up at 5-point favorites at home before some public action pushed it up 1-to-1.5 points ,depending on when and where you're looking. The total saw similar movement, just the other way; the total settled in at 48 or 48.5 after opening at 50.

Betting Line: Los Angeles Rams -6.5
Total: 48/48.5

At the time of publication, the public was about 50-50 in terms of laying or taking the points.

63 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

All of AccuScore's NFL picks
NFL Expert Picks – Wildcard Weekend

Betting Trends

• The total has gone OVER in five of the Rams' last five games.
• The total has gone UNDER in five of Atlanta's last five games.
• The Rams are 4-10-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 15 games at home.
• The UNDER is 4-0 in the Falcons' last four matchups against a team with a winning record.
• The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.

What to Watch For
Make vs the Pass Rush: Back in 2015, the Atlanta Falcons went ahead and passed on RB Todd Gurley. Dan Quinn could have had Gurley, but went ahead and selected pass rusher Vic Beasley. It seems to be working out just fine on both sides, but there's no doubt Gurley will look to remind Atlanta what they missed out on. He put up over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scored close to 20 TDs this year -- he's easily one of best weapons any team has in the backfield.

Gurley is projected to finish with 111 yards on 16-to-17 carries. He averages 1 TD per sim. He also adds close to 30 receiving yards on three receptions.

Falcons' Defense: The Falcons just might be one of the tougher matchups for the Rams on the ground. They have a top-10 defense that has allowed just one team in their last six games to rush for over 100 yards. In the same vain, Atlanta has allowed more than 23 points in only two games this season. They're pretty, pretty good at staying within a TD given the improved defense in the second half of the season, and QB Matt Ryan getting back on track of late.

The Falcons defense is projected to force more than 1 takeaway in Saturday's game, with there being about two times the probability of an INT than a recovered fumble.

Ryan is projected to finish with 239 passing yards, and 1-to-2 TDs. He averages close to four times as many TDs as he does INTs. .

Analyst's Pick
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Analyst Pick:: Atlanta covers on the road.

The Falcons are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played on the west coast.