Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Falcons vs Saints - NFL Thursday Odds & Analyst Pick

Week 14 in the NFL kicks off Thursday night in Atlanta as the Falcons host the New Orleans Saints on a weekend where the Saints will look to sneak into second place in the NFC -- with either the Eagles or Vikings loss. Atlanta, on the other hand, needs to win to stay in the wild card race.

Vegas Odds
There has been a lot of movement on the spread since New Orleans opened as 4-point favorites. Some books even had the spread switch completely to the other side, moving five points to make the Falcons a 1-point favorite. At the time of publication, though, most books across Vegas had this matchup as a pick 'em.

The total opened at 54.5 before dropping a couple points.

Betting Line: Pick 'Em or New Orleans Saints -1
Total: 52

At the time of publication, close to 57 percent of the public were taking New Orleans on the road.

56 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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Betting Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of New Orleans' last 15 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 25 games

What to Watch For

Public Action: According to a recent report, publicly backed teams are just 4-8-1 in Thursday night games this season. With the Saints getting the majority of the public action, there's some solace in knowing the simulation data is supporting the home side -- and going against Vegas.

Backs Running Wild: New Orleans RB Albin Kamara had nine carries for 60 yards and two TDs and caught five of six targets for 66 yards in last week's 31-21 win over the Carolina Panthers. His production has been ridiculous, especially when you consider he never really gets close to 20 touches. It's practically a guarantee of late that he'll find the end zone.

Matty Ice: Falcons QB Matt Ryan completed 16 of 29 passes for 173 yards during last week's14-9 loss to the Vikings. Ryan was pretty, pretty bad last week, recording his lowest total yardage for the season. Ryan is projected to finish Thursday night's game with 289 yards, 2 TDs and a win.

FREE Analyst's Pick

Analyst Pick: Atlanta covering/winning.

AccuScore has all expert picks for NFL Thursday, Sunday and Monday all live: All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

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