Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Cowboys vs Eagles: Sunday Night NFL Pick
Sunday night features an intriguing matchup on the NFL slate as the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys host the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium. Philly will look to avenge their OT loss the last time they were on the road against Dallas.
Vegas Odds
There has been very little movement on the total since it oped at 47, but the spread shifted two-to-three points depending on where you're looking. The Eagles opened as 3-point favorites before settling down at -5.5.
Betting Line: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5/-6
Total: 47.5/48
At the time of publication, about 66 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Philly.
68 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.
Betting Trends
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games.
- The Cowboys are 9-3 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games at home.
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What to Watch For
While the Eagles are heavy favorites in Vegas and in the public's eye, AccuScore sim data has the Cowboys actually winning over 50 percent of simulations. How could our data and Vegas differ so much in their projections?
The Cowboys have the second-best rushing attack at home and the variables seem to be weighing that statistic heavily.
Alfred Morris is projected to finish with 71 yards on 16 carries; Darren McFadden is projected to finish with 30 yards on 7 carries; Dak Prescott is projected to finish with close to 40 yards on 5 attempts. Prescott has the highest probability of all Cowboys to run it into the end zone.
With the eye test, Philly looks unbeatable. On paper, though, things aren't as perfect. They only have a +6 turnover margin, with Carson Wentz holding a 23:5 TD:INT ratio.
In AccuScore sims, turnovers play the biggest factor -- with Dallas actually winning 67 percent of sims in which they commit fewer turnovers.
Analyst's Pick
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