• 2017 College Football Win Totals - Expert Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    2017 NCAA Football Win Totals, and Analyst Picks

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    With a new season ready to kick off, we decided to take a look at some of the top Over/Under win total lines and pick Analyst picks for the 2017 College Football Season:

    Alabama Crimson Tide O/U wins: 10.5

    All eyes will be on sophomore QB Jalen Hurts as the Crimson Tide are projected to do what they do every year -- win double-digit regular season games. They're favored in every scheduled game this season, with ESPN power index indicating they have greater than a 75 percent chance of winning in 10 of the 12 simulated regular season contests.

    Analyst's Pick: OVER

    Clemson Tigers O/U wins: 9.5

    Anyone expecting the Tigers to have a major drop off better think again. No Deshaun Watson, no problem as the roster brings back a slew of offensive and defensive lineman to ensure continuity. QB Kelly Bryant should be just fine, even if all he has to do is manage games and let the defense take over. With guys like Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence, Clemson's defense just might be the best unit on that side of the ball nationwide.

    Analyst's Pick: OVER

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    Washington Huskies O/U wins: 10.5

    Led by QB Jake Browning, the Huskies are projected to have a strong regular season campaign -- despite losing John Ross to the NFL. They have a well-balanced receiving corps, a strong running attack with RB Myles Gaskin, and recruited well in the offseason to make up for some losses on the defensive side of the ball.

    Analyst's Pick: OVER

    USC Trojans O/U wins: 9.5

    With five starters -- three offensive lineman and two receivers -- from last year's starting lineup gone, can QB Sam Darnold keep up his level of play? Analyst's Pick: UNDER

    Michigan Wolverines O/U wins: 9.5

    This is an interesting one. In the same way other programs are benefited by returning certain starters, the Wolverines should struggle since only two of 13 starters on the defensive side return this season. The roster's just so well coached, though, and given the balance they had last season in the air and on the ground, it's tough to pick against them.

    Analyst's Pick: OVER

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  • College Football Friday: Washington vs Stanford - Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    Washington vs Stanford: Analyst Pick

    Washington will look to keep pace with Washington State in the national rankings as they head to Stanford for a matchup with the Cardinal. The college football playoffs are still within reach and the Huskies are on the hunt. Stanford's a 6-point home underdog with the total set at 45.

    Vegas Odds

    Both the spread and total have seen plenty of movement over the past few days. Washington opened up as 8.5-point favorites before settling down to -6. The total dropped to 45 after opening at 50.

    Betting Line: Washington -6
    Total: 45

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    At the time of publication, about 59 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Huskies. 64 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    - Washington is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 6 games.
    - Washington is 8-1 straight up (SU) in its last 9 games.
    - WWashington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs Stanford.

    What to Watch For

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    Huskies QB Jake Browning is having another strong season, despite the multiple injuries to his weapons downfield. He's completing about 68 percent of his throws and has a 16:5 TD-to-INT ratio. Under his leadership, Washington averages 6.4 yards per play this season.

    Browning is projected to finish with 187 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

    Washington's defense has been its calling card all year. The Huskies are giving up just 11.1 points per game, allowing just 3.7 yards per play. They haven't allowed more than 23 points in a game all season, and gave up 13 in their sole loss this season.

    The defense is projected to force 1 turnover Friday night. Stanford is projected to score 22-to-23 points.

    Analyst's Pick

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  • College Football Week 3 Recap

    College football is finally starting to heat up and we are here for it. The SEC will finally kick off in week 4 so now is the time to start doing your research and getting ready to find some winners. Remember you can always find winners withBetQL’s college football picks, but before we get started with week 4 we wanted to look back at some of our favorite games from week 3. Take a look at our recaps below and start getting ready for the biggest week of the year. 

    Louisiana 34, Georgia State, 31 Overtime

    It’s safe to say that the Ragin’ Cajuns spent most of the week basking in the glory of last week’s upset win over Iowa State because they came out a little flat. Georgia State took full advantage by taking an early lead, ultimately leading 21-7 midway through the third quarter. However, Louisiana eventually started to hit on some big plays, scoring 21 unanswered points to take a 28-21 lead before the Panthers struck back to force overtime. After Georgia State got a field goal, Elijah Mitchell ran in the game-scoring touchdown from 12 yards out. That run was Mitchell’s second of the day and gave him 164 yards on 16 carries. Levi Lewis also threw for 279 yards and two touchdowns, overcoming a couple of interceptions to keep the Ragin’ Cajuns undefeated ahead of next week’s home opener with Georgia Southern while a showdown with Appalachian State lurks in two weeks.

    Check out BetQL to see which way the public is betting for every game with theircollege football consensus pick dashboard. No matter the bet type of the game BetQL has all the football data you need. 

    Oklahoma State 16, Tulsa 7

    This was not the game the Cowboys envisioned for their season opener given OSU’s high expectations this year. The Oklahoma State offense got nothing going for much of the first half and then saw quarterback Spencer Sanders leave with an injury. When backup Ethan Bullock was ineffective, the Cowboys turned to true freshman Shane Illingworth. He turned out to be just what Oklahoma State needed, leading the Cowboys on a drive that ended with a Chuba Hubbard touchdown. Of course, the Oklahoma State defense was the real hero of the day, shutting down the Tulsa offense for most of the day. With a couple of late field goals, the Cowboys managed to survive an ugly game before next week’s Big 12 opener against West Virginia.

    Notre Dame 52, South Florida 0

    This game more or less went according to plan for Notre Dame. One week after struggling to put away The Citadel, South Florida continued to look like a team that struggled against The Citadel. The Fighting Irish were dominant from the start, quickly taking a 14-0 lead and ultimately leading 35-0 at halftime. Ian Book threw the ball just 19 times but had no passing touchdowns. However, Book found the end zone in three of his four carries. Outside of a blocked punt that Notre Dame turned into a touchdown, all six Fighting Irish touchdowns came on the ground. It was a complete effort for Notre Dame, who hits the road for the first time next week to play Wake Forest.

    Make sure you are always looking at the mostupdated college football odds with BetQL. If there is any line movement at the sportsbook you can be sure that BetQL has it on their site.

  • College Football Win Totals Picks: Part 2

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    2017 NCAA Football Win Totals Lines and Analyst Picks: Part 2

    Last week, AccuScore previewed the college football season by looking at some big over/under lines for teams like USC, Alabama and Clemson, so we decided to continue that thought as we ramp up for the first full week of college football. Yes, it's time to properly launch the 2017 NCAA Football season.

    Mississippi State O/U wins: 5.5
    5.5 games, really? From our data, that just seems disrespectful. They're not going to compete for an SEC title, don't get us wrong, but they have one of the best QBs in the conference and have a favorable schedule. They have some winnable games at home against Kentucky and Ole Miss, and have some road opportunities too, at Arkansas for example. A strong offense led by Nick Fitzgerald will at the very least make them competitive in most games.

    Analyst's Pick: OVER

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    Nebraska O/U wins: 6
    The decision on the Cornhuskers win total is largely dependent on the conference they play in. The only team without a doubt better than them in the Big Ten West is Wisconsin. That means they'll be competitive in the majority of their matchups. A good coach in Mike Riley should tip the scale to just above the set total.

    Analyst's Pick: OVER

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    Starting Thursday, College Football is back in full effect. There are six games on the schedule on Thursday, and AccuScore has expert picks against the spread, on totals and on the moneyline for every game: College Football Game Picks for 20% off All-Access All-Sports membership (includes NFL and NCAA Football)... College Football picks

    North Carolina O/U wins: 7
    The Tar Heels didn't only lose Mitchell Trubisky from last season, but also three of his best receivers and running back Elijah Hood. Just too much turnover for LSU transfer QB Brandon Harris to be able to make the best of.

    Analyst's Pick: UNDER

    Oregon O/U wins: 8
    It's all up to Willie Taggart to turn things around this season after Oregon struggled last season under Mark Helfrich. They're a better team this year, without a doubt, but just don't have the talent to compete in the Pac-12 North. Our simulations have the Ducks just a shade below the set total and there's just not any justification to suggest otherwise.

    Analyst's Pick: UNDER

    Georgia Tech O/U wins: 6.5
    Sixteen starters return to the roster this season and it's tough to look past that when looking at the win total line for Georgia Tech. They won nine games last season, and while they won't reach that same mark this season, there's enough on both sides of the ball to get to seven wins. They've have an incredibly consistent ground attack in recent history -- rushing for at least 5.3 yards per carry in every one of the last seven seasons. With the triple-option offense and a well-coached defense, Georgia Tech projects to be competitive in almost every game. Expect a whole lot of games decided by single digits.

    Analyst's Pick: OVER

  • College Football: Week 3 Analyst Picks - Ole Miss vs Cal

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    College Football Week 3: Ole Miss vs Cal - Analyst

    We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore simulation data are on different sides of the money line and that's exactly the kind of situation we've got in this weekend's Ole Miss-Cali matchup at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, CA. The Rebels are 4-point road favorites with the total set at 72.

    Other Week 3 Analyst Picks: South Florida vs Illinois

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sim Data

    Whereas Vegas has Ole Miss as the slight favorites, AccuScore sim data actually has the Golden Bears as the slight favorites. Cal's actually getting +160 on the money line, indicating about a 38-to-39 percent chance of happening. Our sim data actually has the home team favored by a point; Cal wins just a shade over 50 percent of sims.

    AccuScore sim data would have listed the Bears at at EVEN or -105 odds, indicating a whole lot of value on the +160 as well the +4 spread.

    Top AccuScore Betting Trends

    All AccuScore Picks vs the Spread
    • SEC Team vs Non-SEC Team: 11-5, 69% +550
    • Pac-12 Team vs Non-Pac12 Team: 11-5, 69% +550
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    Non-AccuScore Betting Trends: Ole Miss vs CAL

    • Ole Miss is 2-0 against the over/under this season.
    • Ole Miss Rebels 0-2 against the spread (ATS) this season.
    • Cal is 1-1 against the over/under this season.
    • Cal is 1-1 against the spread this season.

    What to Watch For

    California QB Ross Bowers had a fairly quiet Week 2 performance at Weber State, going for 200 yards, no TDs, after a strong Week 1 outing at North Carolina with four TDs. He's projected to finish Saturday's matchup with close to 350 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT.

    This'll be a good test for Cal's new offensive coordinator, Beau Baldwin. According to a report from SB Nation, the Bears rank No. 25 in the nation in rushing IsoPPP -- an explosiveness metric, measure the magnitude of success plays. A successful play occurs when you gain: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

    Cal's defense will have to be have a much better performance this week, though. Weber State last week put up 571 total yards of offense, but finished with just 20 points due to three fumbles.

    Free Analyst's Pick

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    Analyst Says: It's tough to go against a three-star hot trend pick. Taking the points and going with the home 'dogs here.

  • College Football: Week 3 Analyst Picks: 22. South Florida vs Illinois

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    College Football: Week 3 Analyst Picks

    The line opened with South Florida as 14.5-point favorites, moving a good few points up over the week. Compared to the opening line, AccuScore data had the home team as even heavier favorites, listing the Bulls as 18-point favorites to open. The line in Vegas has since moved closer to AccuScore data.

    South Florida covers a 17.5-point spread in just 51.3 percent of simulations; they covered the 14.5-point spread in close to 56 percent of simulations.

    Simply put, there's not a whole lot of value in laying the points for the home side to cover.

    Top NCAA AccuScore Trends: Week 3

    • Sim O/U difference vs Vegas: 3-3.5
    - All Picks(Spreads + Totals): 35-16-1, 68% +1,740
    -Moneyline Picks: 23-3, 88%

    • All Close Games (-4 to +4 spread)
    - All Picks (Spreads + Totals): 24-15, 61% +750

    Top AccuScore Trends: Spread Picks
    • SEC Team vs Non-SEC Team: 11-5, 69% +550
    • Pac-12 Team vs Non-Pac12 Team: 11-5, 69% +550

    Top AccuScore Trends: Over/Under Picks
    • MWC Team vs Non-MWC Team: 13-3, 81% +970

    Top AccuScore Trends: Moneyline Picks
    • AAC Team vs Non-AAC Team: 10-1, 91%

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    Top South Florida vs Illinois: Betting Trends

    • Illinois is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
    • Illinois is 6-15 straight up (SU) in its last 21 games.
    • Illinois is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games on the road.
    • Illinois is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road.
    • South Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
    • South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
    • The total has gone OVER in 11 of South Florida's last 16 games

    Public Perception

    At the time of publication, close to 70 percent of the public was on the road team to cover a 17.5-point spread. It might be a good idea to keep monitoring how much of the public is on Illinois.

    Analyst's Pick

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    Revealed After Game

    South Florida is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home. We'll focus on that when picking this matchup.

    The two sides have opposite styles of play, one focusing on offense and the other on defense, but South Florida just is better prepared for this matchup. They've already faced some varied styles this season and have more talent to adapt over the course of a game. It's not an easy play, but we'll lay the points and take the home side.

  • PAC 12 Football Predictions: College Football 2018 Previews

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    College Football Previews 2018: PAC 12 Predictions

    Written by Rohit Ghosh

    The Winner: : AccuScore sim data projects Washington to sit atop the Pac 12 this season, averaging 10-to-11 wins in simulations. They have a tough opener vs Auburn and some potentially problematic road matchups with Utah, UCLA, Oregon and Washington State, but they should still play well enough to win the conference easily.

    The OVER: : No one is expecting Herm Edwards to turn things around right away for the Sun Devils, but AccuScore sims do suggest Arizona State finish with more than five wins this season. They average 5.5 wins in AccuScore sims.

    All of AccuScore's College Football Expert Picks
    College Football Betting Trends

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    The UNDER:: The best bet for the UNDER in the Pac-12 is Stanford (8.5 wins). AccuScore sim data projects the Cardinal win fewer than eight games this year. They have a tough conference, hit the road for a matchup with Notre Dame, not to mention an opener with the under-rated San Diego State.

    Stay Away:: Most media outlets are expecting UCLA to hit the OVER on 5/5.5 wins, considering Chip Kelly's track record. He's not returning to the spotlight to lose seven-plus games, right? It will probably come down to the games vs Utah and Oregon, but AccuScore sim data suggests a lean on the UNDER for the Bruins. The road matchup vs Oklahoma doesn't help either, at least in the simulations.

    Other Previews:
    ACC Football Preview
    Big 10 Football Preview
    Big 12 Football Preview
    SEC Football Preview

  • Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech Expert Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    College Football - Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech

    Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech Picks
    Free AccuScore Forecast of the Week

    Georgia Tech hosts Pittsburgh this Saturday as 9.5-point favorites, with the total set at 56. The Yellow Jackets heads into the matchup well rested after last week's game at University of Central Florida was cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. Georgia Tech has come up short the last two times these two sides met.

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    What to Watch For

    Pittsburgh's No. 1 weapon in this matchup is Georgia Tech's proclivity to turn the ball over. Georgia Tech -- this season -- has recorded six fumbles in two games. They recover the majority of their own fumbles, but the lack of discipline leaves the door open for the opponent week in and week out.

    The Pittsburgh defense averages fewer than one forced turnover per sim in this matchup.

    Betting Trends
    • Pittsburgh is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games following a straight up (SU) loss of 20 points or more.
    • The OVER is 8-0 in Pittsburgh's last eight conference games.
    • Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
    • Georgia Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games on grass.
    • Georgia Tech is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win.

    Analyst's Pick

    The line opened a couple points lower at -7.5 for Georgia Tech. If you got it then, the data suggests laying the points and taking the home side. Georgia Tech covers a 7.5-point spread in about 52-to-53 percent of simulated matchups, on par with the odds offered in Vegas on them to cover.

    Simply put, there's not a whole lot of value picking against the spread (ATS) this matchup.

    The total opened at 59 before settling a few points lower at 56. The sim data actually had the total a whole 5 points above the total listed in Vegas, indicating a pick on the OVER. The OVER is a 1-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

    The total combined score goes OVER 56 in 60 percent of simulated matchups.

    If you got the line when it opened, lay the points and take the OVER. If the line is closer to 9.5, stay away and just take the OVER.

  • San Jose State v South Florida: Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    South Florida at San Jose State: Preview

    South Florida travels across the country this Saturday to match up with San Jose State as the NCAA Football season officially kicks off. The Bulls enter the matchup as a 20-to-21-point road favorite, with the total set at 68.5.

    South Florida heads into this Week 1 contest having won 18-of-21 games overall going back to last season. They bring back 16 starters and are ready to prove they're deserving of their ranking. San Jose State, on the other hand, enters this season with a new coach in Brent Brennan looking to move past a 4-8 2016 season.

    What to Watch For

    South Florida marches down the field to the beat of QB Quinton Flowers and he's projected to build off an impressive 2016 season. He's one of the best dual-threats in the nation, finishing 2016 with 2,812 passing yards and 1,530 rushing yards. He had 24 passing TDs and just seven picks to go along with 18 rushing TDs. Flowers lost his main receiving weapon in Rodney Adams, but still can rely on RB D'Ernest Johnson to carry some of the load.

    Any chance San Jose St. has at keeping this game close depends largely on the South Florida defense struggling out of the gates in 2017. That unit was very inconsistent last year, allowing over 38 points per contest in the last six games of the season. That average was below 26 in the first seven games of the 2016 season. With Charlie Strong leading the way, all signs point to South Florida being a much better defensive unit this year compared to last -- they're returning 15 of their top 20 tacklers from the year before.

    Betting Trends
    • South Florida is 15-7 against the spread [ATS] in its last 22 games going back the last two seasons.
    • South Florida is 5-0 straight up [SU] in its last 5 games going back to last season.
    • The total has gone OVER in 6 of South Florida’s last 7 games going back to last season.
    • San Jose State is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State’s last 7 games going back to last season.

    Projected Score & Analyst's Pick

    The average score after 10,000 AccuScore sims is 49-19.

    South Florida's looking to kick off the season firing on all cylinders. And given the number of starters they're bringing back, I expect South Florida to dominate both sides of the ball, with the offense having some hiccups here and there.

    I'll take the Bulls to cover, and the UNDER.

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