Concussion: Rob Gronkowski Super Bowl 52 Analysis

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Gronk or No Gronk? Does it Even Matter?

AccuScore's full forecast and expert picks for the Patriots vs the Eagles on Sunday are live:SuperBowl 52 Picks

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Even though it looks pretty certain that Rob Gronkowski will be ready for the big game on Sunday, Accuscore simulated out the scenario where the Patriots are without their star tight end. Gronkowski has been one of the top tight ends in the NFL since his debut to the league in 2010. However, he has been injured multiple times during his career and missed games in every season since 2012. So, if Gronk misses the Super Bowl, this is far from uncharted territory.

In terms of Sunday's stage, Rob Gronkowski has played twice. In Super Bowl XLVI, when the Patriots lost the NY Giants, he was non-factor and later revealed the injury in his ankle. In Super Bowl XLIX win over Seattle, he played on an elite level with 6 catches and one TD. A year ago, though, he was watching from the sidelines as Tom Brady led an incredible comeback win against the Falcons.

In Accuscore simulations Rob Gronkowski is predicted to get 5 caches for 68 yards and have highest probability to catch a TD among any New England players. When simulating the Super Bowl without Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen as a starting TE, there is not a massive difference because the Patriots have history of winning without Gronk. On average, the Patriots will score only a point less than without Gronkowski.

The outcome of the simulations shows that the Patriots have figured the ways to win with and without Gronkowski. One good example was the AFC Conference championship a week ago. Gronkowski was injured during the game and New England was down 10 points in 4th quarter, but Tom Brady led yet another comeback and won by 4 points to advance to Super Bowl. Of course, Gronk helps, but AccuScore's computer says the Patriots can win without him.

Other Previews:
AccuScore's Super Bowl 52 Preview and Analyst Pick
AccuScore's Super Bowl 52 Prop Bets - Odds & Picks

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles: NFL Sunday Night Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Cowboys vs Eagles: Sunday Night NFL Pick

Sunday night features an intriguing matchup on the NFL slate as the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys host the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium. Philly will look to avenge their OT loss the last time they were on the road against Dallas.

Vegas Odds
There has been very little movement on the total since it oped at 47, but the spread shifted two-to-three points depending on where you're looking. The Eagles opened as 3-point favorites before settling down at -5.5.

Betting Line: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5/-6
Total: 47.5/48

At the time of publication, about 66 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Philly.

68 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games.
- The Cowboys are 9-3 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games at home.

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What to Watch For
While the Eagles are heavy favorites in Vegas and in the public's eye, AccuScore sim data has the Cowboys actually winning over 50 percent of simulations. How could our data and Vegas differ so much in their projections?

The Cowboys have the second-best rushing attack at home and the variables seem to be weighing that statistic heavily.

Alfred Morris is projected to finish with 71 yards on 16 carries; Darren McFadden is projected to finish with 30 yards on 7 carries; Dak Prescott is projected to finish with close to 40 yards on 5 attempts. Prescott has the highest probability of all Cowboys to run it into the end zone.

With the eye test, Philly looks unbeatable. On paper, though, things aren't as perfect. They only have a +6 turnover margin, with Carson Wentz holding a 23:5 TD:INT ratio.

In AccuScore sims, turnovers play the biggest factor -- with Dallas actually winning 67 percent of sims in which they commit fewer turnovers.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL Preview: Giants vs Seahawks: Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Seattle Seahwawks at New York Giants: Analyst Preview & Pick

After winning their first game of the season last week, the New York Giants (1-5) get set to host the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) this Sunday at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands. The Giants haven't had much go right this season, leading with the Odell Beckham Jr. injury. The Giants finally got a win, though, and that's already had an interesting impact on the betting market.

Betting Line: Seattle Seahawks -4
Moneyline Odds: Seahawks -210, Giants +175
Total: 39.5

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Vegas Odds

Seattle opened Week 7 as 8-point favorites. Over the past few days, the public has pushed that line down to -4, with the majority of the public overreacting to the Giants' win last week.

The total has stay consistent, settling at 39.5 after opening at 39.

Betting Trends
• The Giants are 0-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games at home against a West Cost team.
• The Giants are 2-10 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games as home underdogs.
• The UNDER is 6-1 in the Giants' last seven games on field turf.

What to Watch For
Let's give credit where it's due -- the Giants pulled off an impressive win last week against the Denver Broncos as two-TD underdogs.

No Odell, no Brandon Marshall, and no Sterling Shepard. QB Eli Manning finished with just 128 yards through the air, but it was RB Orleans Darkwa who stole the show. Darkwa finished with 117 yards on the ground against the No.1 run defense in the league.

Darkwa is projected to finish Sunday's game with 21 rushing yards on 4 carries.

Manning is projected to finish with 246 passing yards, averaging almost as many INTs (0.7) as TDs (0.9) in the sims.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL Thursday: Ravens vs Dolphins Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Ravens vs Dolphins: TNF Analyst Pick

This week's episode of Thursday Night Football features a pair of teams looking to get a win and get back in the playoff hunt. The Baltimore Ravens host the Miami Dolphins having won seven of the last eight meetings between the two sides.

Vegas Odds

The total has stayed consistent at 48.5 since the line opened, but the spread has dropped from -6 to -4.5 for Philly.

Betting Line: Baltimore Ravens -3
Total: 37

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Top AccuScore Trends: After Week 7 (before MNF)
- All NFL Picks vs the Spread: 57-41-7 58.9% +1,190
- All Side Value Picks: 58-44 +2527
- All Totals Picks: 52-42-6 +1080
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Betting Trends

• The Dolphins are 1-6 straight up (SU) in their last seven games against the Ravens.
• The Dolphins are 0-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against the Ravens.
• The Dolphins are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games at night.
• The total has gone OVER in four of the Ravens' last five games

What to Watch For

For the Dolphins, their best chance at staying competitive in this matchup is with their defense. They're giving up just 82 yards per game on the ground, good for No. 6 in the league. The Baltimore offensive line is banged up and we should see the Miami pressuring the QB early and often.

The Dolphins' defense average 1.3 forced turnovers per simulated matchup, with a much higher chance of an INT than a forced fumble.

Matt Moore threw a pair of TDs in the Dolphins' 31-28 win over New York last week. Moore was above-average last season when stepping in for QB Ryan Tannehill, finishing with a TD:INT ratio of 8:3 in three games.

Moore is projected to finish Thursday night's matchup with 246 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL TNF Analyst Pick: Eagles at Panthers - Week 6

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL Thursday - Panthers vs Eagles

Thursday night NFL action in this week's slate features a pair of 4-1 teams looking to keep momentum trending the right way. The Panthers are slight 3-to-3.5-point favorites, getting the nod as the home side in what's projected as a tight matchup.

Date/Time: Thursday, 10/12 at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Spread: Panthers -3.5
Total: 45.5

Vegas Odds
There really hasn't been a whole lot of movement on the line, Vegas and the public expecting a close matchup Thursday night.

The line opened at -3 for Carolina, moving up just a half-point in some books across Vegas. Same for the total, up a half-point to 45.5.

Betting Trends
• The Eagles are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games.
• The Eagles are 6-1 straight up (SU) in their last seven games.
• The Eagles 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER seven of the Eagles' last 10 games.
• The Panthers are 1-3-2 in their last six games at home.

Top AccuScore Trends: After Week 5
- All NFL Picks vs the Spread: 43-30-4, 58.9% +1,000
- All Side Value Picks: 44-31, 58.7% +1800
- All Totals Picks: 44-29-4, 60.3% +1210
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All of AccuScore's Week 6 NFL Picks

What to Watch For
Trouble on the O-line: As John Breech of CBS Sports first pointed out, the absence of offensive lineman Lane Johnson has the potential to be a huge game changer this week; Johnson suffered a concussion in Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals and is projected to be out Thursday night on a short week.

Why's that such a big deal? Johnson has been in the lineup for 11 of Wentz's 21 career starts.

In those 11 games, Wentz has a 9-2 record, 65.7 completion percentage, 2,766 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 99.9 passer rating.

He went 2-8 in the games without Johnson, looking like a completely different product on the field. In those 10 games, he went 2-8 and threw twice as many INTs (12) as TDs (6).

Wentz is projected to finish Thursday's game with 261 yards, averaging 1.3 TDs to 0.8 INTs in sims.

Ground Game: Philly's run defense has actually been solid this year -- containing the likes of Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt so far this season. The Eagles gave up some late yardage on the ground to the Chiefs and Chargers, but for the most part have been consistently above average in that category.

The Panthers are projected to finish with at least 1 rushing TD.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL Week 17: Cowboys at Eagles - Analyst Pick & Preview

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles: NFL Week 17 Analyst Pick

There might not be any Thursday night action in the NFL for Week 17, but Sunday's slate has plenty for bettors out there. The Cowboys and Eagles take center stage at 1 PM Eastern at Lincoln Financial Field . Let's take a closer look at where the value is in a matchup in which the two teams have nothing to play for.

Vegas Odds
There hasn't been much movement on the spread or total since the lines opened. The Cowboys opened as 2-point favorites before settling in a half-point higher; the total dropped a couple points since opening at 43.

Betting Line: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
Total: 41

At the time of publication, 54 percent of the public were laying the points and picking the Eagles.

61 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

All of AccuScore's 2017 NFL Picks
• Spreads/Totals/Moneyline Picks: +2583 profit

Our computer has simulated every game 10,000 times like it does every week…Week 17 NFL picks

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Betting Trends
• The Cowboys are 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games on the road.
• The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Eagles.

What to Watch For
Dak vs the Pass Rush: Dak Prescott finished Week 16 against the Seattle Seahawks with 182 yards and 2 INTs struggling to get into any sort of rhythm with a set of weapons that seem to be more bark than bite. Prescott lost left tackle Tyron Smith early in last week's matchup, and that doesn't bode well for him this week - regardless of how motivated the Eagles are to win this week. The Eagles rank No. 2 on the season in opponent incompletions per game.

Prescott is projected to finish with 262 passing yards and 2 TDs, to go along with 21 rushing yards on 3 carries.

Eagles on the Ground: Ajayi finished Week 16 with 52 rushing yards on 14 carries and caught two-of-three passes for 21 yards and 1 TD. He did have a fumble to go along with production, though, in the 19-10 win over Oakland. He started the game off with a bang, catching a 17-yard TD on just the Eagles' second drive. That was unfortunately marred by the fumble later on, but Ajayi has been more-than-satisfactory since putting on the Philly uniform. He's averaged nearly 15 touches over the last four games, but that sort of action could be in jeopardy given the team has nothing substantial to play for in Week 17.

Ajayi is projected to finish with 68 yards on 13 carries, but it's teammate LeGarrette Blount that has a slightly higher probability at finding the end zone. Blount averages 0.6 TDs per simulated matchup, compared to Ajayi's 0.5.

Analyst's Pick
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San Francisco 49ers: Over/Under 10.5 Wins?

June 2nd, 2020 - By Brandon Barbour

After going 13-3 in 2019, the San Francisco 49ers are hopeful of making another Super Bowl run. With regular-season NFL over unders as one of the main futures bets to focus on in the sport, bettors are breaking down schedules and offseason moves to figure out where they can make some cash. The 49ers have a 10.5 line for their win total in 2020. Which side of this bet should you hammer?

Offseason Moves

It was a fairly quiet offseason for San Francisco. They traded away DeForest Buckner, Marquise Goodwin, and Matt Breida. For Buckner, they received the Indianapolis Colts first-round selection, and replaced their defensive-lineman with a younger, cheaper lineman in Javon Kinlaw. Late round picks were swapped in the deals involving Goodwin and Breida.

The 49ers also let Emmanuel Sanders walk in free agency to the New Orleans Saints. They spent a late first-round pick on a new wide out in Brandon Aiyuk to fill the hole. Longtime offensive lineman, Joe Staley, decided to hang it up and call it a career. This prompted the 49ers to swoop in and pull off a trade with the Washington Redskins to acquire Trent Williams, a terrific offensive tackle. Despite losing some offensive weapons, the 49ers return with a very similar squad and starting cast.

Schedule And Outlook

Now, let’s break down the schedule. It wouldn’t be shocking if San Francisco got off to a raging start. Last year the Niners were one of the top NFL picks against the spread, they covered the spread in 61% of their games, so you have to think they will be close to this mark this upcoming year. They’ll host the Arizona Cardinals, visit the New York Jets, visit the New York Giants, host the Philadelphia Eagles, host the Miami Dolphins, and host the Los Angeles Rams. Clearly, the Eagles are the challenge in the first six weeks. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the team started 6-0 or 5-1.

This is where the schedule gets rough. They’ll visit the New England Patriots, visit the Seattle Seahawks, host the Green Bay Packers (Thursday Night Football), and visit the New Orleans Saints before a week 11 bye. That’s a ton of travel and a battle with the Packers on short rest. Let’s say San Francisco splits the four games. Worst case scenario, they’ve started out 7-3 and finished off the worst part of their schedule in 2020. Not bad! As a bettor you also have to be keeping your eye on the NFL spreads to make sure you are getting value on the bets. Against these other top tier NFL teams even the smallest point spread can make a difference.

After the rough patch, the 49ers will visit the Rams, host the Buffalo Bills, host the Washington Redskins, visit the Dallas Cowboys, visit the Cardinals, and host the Seahawks. Conservatively, San Francisco would end up with at least 11 wins with the potential to win 12 or even 13.

Last season, the 49ers went 5-1 against their division. The Cardinals and Seahawks will be better, no doubt, but the 49ers are still boasting a championship roster. It’s very possible that San Francisco only has three different playoff teams to get through on the schedule (Eagles, Seahawks, Saints). No one knows exactly what to expect from the Patriots, Packers, or Cowboys. So, while the schedule may appear scary, it isn’t so bad.

This will be coach Kyle Shanahan’s fourth seasons with the club. He has built a championship roster and has fully implemented his ways into the organization. Last season was Jimmy Garoppolo’s first full season with the offensive guru, so expect some growth from the quarterback in 2020. All signs point to the 49ers going over 10.5 wins. This feels like a bet worth making.

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