• 2017 NFL Kickoff: Patriots vs Chiefs

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Patriots vs Chiefs: 2017 NFL Kickoff - Week 1

    Football is back in action and Week 1 kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champ New England Patriots hosting the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. At the time of publication, the Pats are 9-point favorites with the total at 48.5.

    What to Watch For

    With Julian Edelman out of the lineup this season, keep an eye on wide receiver Brandin Cooks to get some production early and often. Most scouts are expecting a slightly faster tempo from the Pats when looking to get Cooks some touches. He's projected to finish Thursday's game with 46 receiving yards on 4 carries; he averages 0.3 TDs per simulated matchup.

    A big part of the Kansas City's 12-4 record last [regular] season can be directly connected to its league-leading 33 takeaways, allowing the Chiefs to finish the season No. 1 with a +16 turnover ratio, tied with Oakland. The Chiefs average 1 forced turnover per simulated matchup.

    All of AccuScore’s Week 1:NFL Expert Picks

    Vegas Odds vs AccuSore Sims

    Whereas Vegas has the Pats favored by 9 points, AccuScore sim data has that line a couple points lower at 7. The line actually opened in Vegas at 7 and the highest it has been so far is 9.5.

    The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 28-21. Kansas City covers the 9-point spread in over 54 percent of simulations.

    The totals listed in most books across Vegas are about the same as the data AccuScore sims provided.

    Betting Trends

    • Kansas City is 6-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last six road games going into last season.
    • Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games going into last season.

    Analyst's Pick

    Members: Log in at the top right now to see AccuScore’s Analyst Pick...Not a member?
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    2016 NFL Betting Record


    The Chiefs have lost their last six road games up in Foxborough. Not expecting a KC victory, but Alex Smith has proven himself to be able to stay competitive in games like this. He lost 27-20 to New England in the 2016 AFC divisional round. I'm expecting a fairly strong performance by the Chiefs' defense, led by Justin Houston -- enough to keep things at bay.

    KC +9 is what we're going with.

  • 2018 NFL Playoffs Predictions - AccuScore's Bracket

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    2018 NFL Playoffs: AccuScore’s Predictions

    Finally, the 2018 NFL Playoffs are here.

    After 17 weeks of one of the most interesting NFL regular seasons in history, the playoffs are ready to kick-off. While Accuscore has simulated every game until the Super Bowl 52, let’s first take at how the computer performed in 2017.

    After picking spread, totals and moneyline for all 256 games.,..

    Accuscore’s Record for the 2017 NFL regular season
    • Against the Spread: 127-110-19, +600
    • Totals: 136-109-11, +1610
    • Moneyline: 167-89, +276
    Aggregate: +2486 profit

    As any shark will tell you, the point is to make a profit, and across the board, AccuScore made a profit and picked EVERY game this season.

    With a season full of data now ready to step up in the postseason, we have 11 Playoff games with which to increase our profits and pad that wallet.

    As a reminder...

    AccuScrore's 2017 NFL Playoffs Picks
    • Against the Spread: 8-3, +470
    • Totals: 6-5, +50
    • ML: 10-1, +510
    Aggregate: +1,030 profit

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    Use code “quarters” and get 25% off membership instantly. No questions asked. Annual or monthly membership. What are you waiting for?! Join today!

    With the full 2017 regular season data incorporated, our computer simulated ever game 10,000 times to come up with our 2018 NFL playoff bracket. Our computer simulates every game 10,000 times and compares our percentages to the Vegas odds to make winning, value picks for each game on our NFL picks page. There’s a free preview there, too.

    2017 NFC South Projections and Preview

    It is not a fantastic surprise that the computer is sticking with its pre-season Super Bowl 52 pick, the New England Patriots. After few hiccups at the beginning of the season Tom Brady & company still finished with a first round bye and playing well enough to maintain their position as favorites.

    Another QB that has been on the top of the passing stats sheet, New Orleans’ Drew Brees seems to lead his team to another run to the Super Bowl. The Saints had one of the most difficult schedules during regular season, but their offense was once again able to provide enough production for 11 wins.

    There are tight 60-40 games across the playoffs board that will be updated after each round of games with playoff data. It’ll be interesting to see if rookie head coaches will continue their strong results into the postseason. Even though the Patriots are team to beat again, there is no single team that is head and shoulders ahead of the pack.

    The experience from previous Super Bowls is lifting some team’s probabilities a bit. New England, New Orleans and Pittsburgh have head coaches that have won Superbowls with their current teams. Stability helps. Head coaches of Kansas City, Atlanta and Carolina have Super Bowl experience on their resumes as well. Rookie head coaches and others with only little experience from the playoffs have to catchup in a hurry, with teams like Tennessee and Buffalo calculated at Super Bowl winning probabilities of 1%.

    Check back after every round for updated playoff projections

    AccuScore’s Expert NFL Game Picks: Click Here!

  • AFC East: 2017 NFL Previews

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    FINALLY! AccuScore's Week 1 Picks for the 2017 NFL season are LIVE! So, what are you waiting for?
    AccuScore's NFL Picks

    Next on AccuScore’s NFL 2017 Season previews is the AFC East:

    AFC East: 2017 NFL Season Preview

    2017 AFC East Projections and Preview

    Patriots Still The Team to Beat

    Last season ended as Predicted: The New England Patriots completed another great season with an OT victory in the Super Bowl. During the 17 years of Bill Belichick era, the Patriots have ended the season winning the Super Bowls more often than times they’ve missed the playoffs. Keep in mind that they missed the playoffs with an 11-5 record and it’s easy to see that New England in the Tom Brady-Belichick era has been a thing of beauty.

    In Accuscore’s season simulations, the Patriots are projected to win 13 games and an easily waltz into another AFC East title. The Bills and Jets are more or less not contending, and Miami lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill for season due to injury. According to AccuScore, the AFC East projects to be one of the most lopsided divisions since start of the Accuscore NFL predictions over 10 years ago. The Patriots are pretty much favorite to win every game during the season, but visits to Denver (week 10) and Pittsburgh (week 15) give best chances to opponents to beat New England, but only a catastrophe of epic proportions would see the Patriots missing out on the postseason.

    Roster Moves:

    The Super Bowl winners are an attractive destination over the summer. The Patriots had a few notable exits with starting RB LeGarrette Blount on the offensive side and few pass rushers (Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard) on the defensive side among others. The biggest loss came during the pre-season, when top receiver Julian Edelman injured his knee and is out for the season. Even though the Patriots have been able to plug in players in a past, this year seems a bit different. Then, again, New England just won the Super Bowl and looks like a surety to make win the division.

    Fantasy Analysis: New England Patriots

    For fantasy players, QB Tom Brady is still a dependable, good pickup in early rounds. He is predicted to collect the second most fantasy points during the season among QBs. Moreover, New England’s defense is projected to be Top 3 in the world of NFL fantasy, alongside Denver and Seattle. As TE Martellus Bennett left the team after just one season to the Packers, Patriots’ star TE Rob Gronkowski should carry an additional load. This also means additional fantasy points, and Gronk is predicted to be one of the top fantasy players among TEs. By default, WRs and RBs are more of a committee effort instead of single individual in New England, so AccuScore does not have any WRs or RBs at the top of the Fantasy draft list.

    2016 NFL Betting Record

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    Miami’s Lost Season

    New rookie head coach Adam Gase guided Miami Dolphins to playoffs first time in eight years at the end of last season. It wasn’t very successful trip as they lost to Pittsburgh and the wait for the first playoffs victory since 2000 continues.

    Due to the injury of QB Ryan Tannehill, out for the season, Miami’s predicted record drops from 9-7 to 6-10. This is a staggering drop off, but simulations simply don’t find the linkage between QB Jay Cutler and HC Adam Gase from Chicago very meaningful. However, even with the disappointing projections, Cutler and the Dolphins are projected to finish 2nd in the AFC East. The playoffs appear to be out of reach with around a 5% chance based on Accuscore’s predictions. Both games against New England as well as trip to Kansas City are games with a low win probability for Miami.

    Roster Moves:

    During offseason Miami added few good defensive players to the roster. Ten-year veteran Lawrence Timmons from Pittsburgh and TJ McDonald (who is suspended for first 8 games of the season) from the LA Rams are improvements in their respective positions. As noted, the biggest change to the roster came with QB Tannehill injured himself in training camp and the Dolphins added Jay Cutler out of the commentary booth to replace him.

    Fantasy Analysis: Miami Dolphins

    RB Jay Ajayi was one of the top RB during last season in NFL: Accuscore’s fantasy projections show that he would be top10 RB to collect fantasy points this season as well. TE Julius Thomas and WR Jarvis Landry are projected to be among the Top 25 in their respective position groups, but there won’t be too many other players from Miami that you want to draft during first rounds of your season long fantasy draft.

    Other 2017 NFL Previews:
    NFC North Division Preview
    NFC East Division Preview
    NFC South Division Preview
    NFC West Division Preview

    AFC West Division Preview
    AFC North Division Preview

    Bills decline continues

    Buffalo Bills’ trend has been pointing downwards during the last three season. Nine, eight and seven wins have been the result of the last three seasons. The Rex Ryan era that started with high promises and expectations was short and full of a lot of hot air. Now, the Bills are taking a new direction under the command of rookie head coach Sean McDermott.

    Accuscore has accurately predicted Buffalo’s win total during last two years (both under). Now we predict again, that they will land under Vegas line (6.5). It will be a tight call as season predictions show 6 wins for the Bills. However, 5 wins is more probable than 7 wins, so we are confident to make this bet. With 6 wins, the playoffs are more than a long shot with under 5% probability. One of the key games for the Bills is the opening day game when the Jets visit Buffalo. That game has right now the highest win probability for any Bills game during this season.

    Roster Moves:

    Declining teams usually make many roster moves during offseason, and the Bills are no exception. However, looking the simulations results, these moves are not having an immediate impact to this season’s results. There are not any big name additions like the past, but the Bills look likely to re-ignite some careers that are declining. Stephon Gilmore’s departure from might be the most difficult to fill on defense. Buffalo basically got rid of all its receivers and with a shaky QB situation, will heavily rely on the running game. Acquiring two veteran fullbacks enhances this plan.

    Fantasy Analysis: Buffalo Bills

    There is not too much to discuss about top fantasy players in the context of Buffalo Bills. Their QB Tyrod Taylor can make plays with his feet that bring quite a few fantasy points at the end of the season. If he can start the first game and perform as predicted, he could be top10 QB on the fantasy scale. Another top10 fantasy player in his respective position is RB LeSean McCoy. He is predicted to be ranked 4th for this season for fantasy points among all NFL running backs.

    Jets Won’t be Bouncing Back Yet

    The second season of head coach Todd Bowles wasn’t as rosy as the surprising first one. The record of 5-11 leaves a lot for improvement, but it looks like Jets are trying to reach better results via a complete rebuild. Usually, this takes more than a season to get any proper results, and the Jets and Browns are most analyst’s favorites to battle for the top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

    Accuscore’s simulations show that the Jets are very likely to repeat the same 5-win season as year ago. This means that chances for playoffs are next to nothing. No need to even mention probability for winning the division with the Patriots laughing on the AFC East throne.

    Roster Moves:

    Part of the house cleaning was to get rid of both QBs - Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith - and top WR Brandon Marshall. Both Smith and Marshall found new jobs with the New York Giants. Jets starting QB Josh McCown cannot be called any long term solution as a 14th year veteran that never truly turned heads looks more like stopgap, if that. The franchise is clearly looking for a savior from the next year’s draft.

    Fantasy Analysis: New York Jets

    Predictably, the Jets are not featuring any fantasy stars. Actually none of their players are predicted to be among the top 20 in their respective position groups. In WRs, the Jets’ best receiver to collect fantasy points is closer to 50 in his projected rank. It is possible that there will be a single fantasy star, but right now, it is difficult to predict who that would or could be.

  • Concussion: Rob Gronkowski Super Bowl 52 Analysis

    Written by AccuScore
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Gronk or No Gronk? Does it Even Matter?

    AccuScore's full forecast and expert picks for the Patriots vs the Eagles on Sunday are live:SuperBowl 52 Picks

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    Even though it looks pretty certain that Rob Gronkowski will be ready for the big game on Sunday, Accuscore simulated out the scenario where the Patriots are without their star tight end. Gronkowski has been one of the top tight ends in the NFL since his debut to the league in 2010. However, he has been injured multiple times during his career and missed games in every season since 2012. So, if Gronk misses the Super Bowl, this is far from uncharted territory.

    In terms of Sunday's stage, Rob Gronkowski has played twice. In Super Bowl XLVI, when the Patriots lost the NY Giants, he was non-factor and later revealed the injury in his ankle. In Super Bowl XLIX win over Seattle, he played on an elite level with 6 catches and one TD. A year ago, though, he was watching from the sidelines as Tom Brady led an incredible comeback win against the Falcons.

    In Accuscore simulations Rob Gronkowski is predicted to get 5 caches for 68 yards and have highest probability to catch a TD among any New England players. When simulating the Super Bowl without Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen as a starting TE, there is not a massive difference because the Patriots have history of winning without Gronk. On average, the Patriots will score only a point less than without Gronkowski.

    The outcome of the simulations shows that the Patriots have figured the ways to win with and without Gronkowski. One good example was the AFC Conference championship a week ago. Gronkowski was injured during the game and New England was down 10 points in 4th quarter, but Tom Brady led yet another comeback and won by 4 points to advance to Super Bowl. Of course, Gronk helps, but AccuScore's computer says the Patriots can win without him.

    Other Previews:
    AccuScore's Super Bowl 52 Preview and Analyst Pick
    AccuScore's Super Bowl 52 Prop Bets - Odds & Picks

  • Kansas City Chiefs Still Best Bet to Win Super Bowl

    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Kansas City Chiefs Offer Best Bet to Win Super Bowl

    The first two weeks of the NFL playoffs has passed, but the Super Bowl betting picture hasn’t swayed too much from the start of the playoffs. When 12 teams started the playoffs. AccuScore said that the Kansas City Chiefs offered the best value bet to win the Super Bowl, along with picking the Chiefs as the most likely team to win the NFL's title game. At the time, AccuScore picked the four teams with the bye weeks to advance to Championship weekend, which is where we land now.

    While Vegas odds have the New Orleans Saints as the most-likely team to win it all, Accuscore simulations still show that it is AFC number one seeded Kansas City as the computer's pick to stand victorious.

    After strong performances by both New England and Kansas City, the Chiefs are still the clear favorites to win Sunday and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1969, when KC won its only Super Bowl. New England’s track record away from the Foxborough is not very impressive, as they haven’t won a single AFC Championship game on the road since 2004. The Patriots have lost all three times they've had to travel at this stage: twice in Denver and once to Indianapolis. However, Kansas City has never played an AFC Championship game on the home, but the divisional round gave a strong indication that KC is ready to claim its home field advantage.

    2019 NFL Playoffs Bracket

    All of AccuScore's NFL Championship Weekend Expert Picks

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    AccuScore projected these four teams to meet at this stage before the playoffs started, with two high-flying offenses predicted to face off in the NFC Championship game. The divisional game for New Orleans was a low scoring one, which means it may be defenses on both sides that will need to step up and keep this one low scoring one as well.

    When comparing Vegas odds to Accuscore Super Bowl probabilities, Kansas City is still only team to have value for betting to win the Super Bowl. Even though the odds have came down from 6-1 to 7-2, the odds are still over 10% better compared to probabilities from the simulations as seen on the table below:

    2019 NFL Playoffs Bracket

  • New England Patriots Favorites to Win: Super Bowl 53 Preview

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    New England Patriots Favorites to Win Super Bowl

    The New England Patriots have been here before.

    Bill Belichick has been here before, as has Tom Brady. Jared Goff and Sean McVay are the future of the NFL, but the first shot doesn’t always strike the target. AccuScore simulated the Super Bowl 10,000 times to see which team would come out on top, and the New England Patriots won 56.9 percent of simulations, with the Rams still coming out on top 43.1 percent of the time.

    Super Bowl 53 Predictions

    This is projected to be a close game, with the Patriots listed as clear favorites, even if EA Sports' Madden video game had the Rams winning by three.

    Vegas agrees for the most part that the Patriots are favorites, with the spread currently at -2.5 points. The total points line is 56.0 points.

    AccuScore has expert picks against the spread and on totals for the Patriots versus the Rams:
    Click Here for full expert picks and full forecast, including player projections at every position

    AccuScore's NFL Expert Picks (regular season and playoffs)
    -All Totals Picks: 147-108-11: 58% +2820 profit
    -All Spread Picks: 136-111-19: 55% +1390 profit
    NFL Expert Picks Net Profit: +4,210

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  • Super Bowl 52 Prop Bets: Odds Analysis - Points

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Super Bowl Prop Bets – Analyst Preview & Pick

    The Super Bowl is right around the corner and that means one thing -- one final pro football matchup to wager on. Let's take a look at a few prop bets for this weekend's Super Bowl matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots.

    First quarter point total 9.5 [OVER 9.5 (-130), UNDER 9.5 (-Even)]

    This one popped out to us immediately. Is it possible that neither team scores a TD in the first quarter? Let's take a look at some recent trends.

    Only five of the last 16 Super Bowl matchups have yielded more than nine points in the first quarter.

    But someone has to score a TD, right? And someone has to put up a field goal along with that? Right? Okay, let's take it a bit further.

    In the last seven Super Bowl matchups the Patriots have been involved in, the average is just a shade over 2 points total in the first quarter.

    NFL offensive coordinators tend to be a bit more conservative to start Super Bowl matchups.

    While we don't necessarily have quarter by quarter data, the 10,000-plus simulations suggest taking the OVER. The projected final score is 30-21, which would indicate double-digit scoring in each quarter -- on average.

    Which team will score first? [Philadelphia Eagles (-105), New England Patriots (-125)]

    This one's tough. But looking at the Patriots' previous Super Bowl matchups, it's clear they're a second half team. They're not necessarily worried about coming out of the gates with all cylinders firing -- they know they can even come back from a 28-3 deficit.

    With that in mind, it seems like a logical wager to think the Eagles will come out a little more desperate to get a lead.

    Eagles QB Nick Foles is known for throwing the ball downfield early and often, and we know Philly will need an early score to establish some confidence.

    AccuScore's full forecast and expert picks for the Patriots vs the Eagles on Sunday are live:SuperBowl 52 Picks

    Margin of Victory
    • Eagles by 1-6 points, 4/1 odds
    • Eagles by 7-12 points, 15/2 odds
    • Eagles by 13-18 points, 14/1 odds
    • Eagles by 19-24 points, 25/1 odds
    • Eagles by 25-30 points, 40/1 odds
    • Eagles by 31-36 points, 66/1odds
    • Eagles by 37-42 points, 100/1 odds
    • Eagles by 43+ points, 100/1 odds
    • Patriots by 1-6 points, 3/1 odds
    • Patriots by 7-12 points, 4/1 odds
    • Patriots by 13-18 points, 6/1 odds
    • Patriots by 19-24 points, 9/1 odds
    • Patriots by 25-30 points, 16/1 odds
    • Patriots by 31-36 points, 25/1 odds
    • Patriots by 37-42 points, 40/1 odds
    • Patriots by 43+ points, 50/1 odds

    The Patriots, despite their ridiculous amount of success in the past 10 years, haven't won a Super Bowl by more than six points. Now we can see why some of those double-digit margins have such wild odds.

    Analyst's Pick
    Members: Log in at the top right now to reveal AccuScore’s Analyst Pick

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  • Super Bowl 52: Eagles vs Patriots - Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Super Bowl 52- Eagles vs Patriots: Preview & Pick

    AccuScore's full forecast and expert picks for the Patriots vs the Eagles on Sunday are live:SuperBowl 52 Picks

    Not a member? This is the best time to join! Sign up now and you'll get ALL of AccuScore's 2018 NFL regular season picks + all of the 2019 NFL Playoffs... Join AccuScore Today!*

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    Super Bowl LII in Minnesota features the Philadelphia Eagles and oh-so-familiar New England Patriots in a matchup that has the defending champs favored by less than a touchdown. Let's take a closer look at the matchup and where the value is at.

    Vegas Odds

    New England opened as 6-point favorites before some public action brought the spread down a couple points. The total less movement compared to the spread, going up a point since it opened at 47.

    Betting Line: New England Patriots -4
    Total: 48

    At the time of publication, 55 percent of the public were taking the points and picking the Eagles.

    59 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    What to Watch For

    Eagles Run-Pass Option: Nick Foles has excelled with the run-pass option since taking over for Carton Wentz as the Eagles' QB, having completed closed to 94 percent of his run-pass option passes, compared to 61.5 percent in non run-pass option sets. Interestingly enough, the Pats have struggled against the run-pass option, allowing 5.6 yards per play -- fifth most (worst) in the NFL.

    Foles is projected to finish with 273 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

    Weapons: Brandin Cooks as an option downfield for Tom Brady has provided the team with a deep threat that the roster hasn't had in recent memory. With a minimum of 50 receptions, no player in the Tom Brady era has averaged more yards per reception in a season (16.6) than Cooks did in 2017. Taking it a step further, he led the league in defensive pass interference yards drawn -- accumulating a total of 209 yards on the season including playoffs so far.

    Cooks is projected to finish with 52 yards on 4 receptions. Brady is projected to finish with 278 passing yards and 2 TDs.

    Analyst's Pick
    Members: Log in at the top right now to reveal AccuScore’s Analyst Pick

    ...New to AccuScore? Try AccuScore Free for 7-days: first time members get a free 7-day trial of AccuScore’s full site when you register for a monthly membership. Join AccuScore Today!*

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    Other Previews: AccuScore's Super Bowl 52 Prop Bets - Odds & Picks

  • Thursday Night Football: Pats vs Bucs - Analyst Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    All of AccuScore’s Week 5NFL Picks

    The New England Patriots might be on the road to kick off Week 5, but they're still getting about six of every ten tickets in books across Vegas. The Patriots are 2-2 straight up (SU), but have only covered just once this season. The Bucs are 2-1 SU and 1-2 against the spread (ATS).

    Vegas Odds: Patriots vs Tampa Bay

    The line opened up for the Pats at -4, but quickly creeped up to 5.5 or 6.0 depending on when and where you're getting it. Westgate has it at -5.5, but MGM has up at -6.

    Fun Facts

    New England and Tampa Bay have given up a combined 851.1 total yards of offense per game. The biggest total in Thursday Night Football history is 56.5. The total is at 55.5 at the time of publication. Betting Trends

    The last 5 games -- league-wide -- that closed with a total of 54 or higher all went OVER. The total was at 55.5 at the time of publication. [Goes against AccuScore sim data.] The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] Tampa Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]

    What to Watch For

    The rushing attack for New England has had some issues this season -- averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season. RB Mike Gillislee has four TDs, but is still averaging just 3.4 yards per carry.

    Gillislee is projected to finish with 47 yards on 7 carries. He averages 0.4 TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick

    Members: Log in at the top right now to reveal AccuScore’s TNF Analyst Picks
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