Accuscore's MLB 2020 Championship Series Predictions

Four teams remain in the MLB’s expanded playoffs 2020 and the no.1 seeds from both leagues are still going strong. The Yankees put up an admirable fight against the Tampa Bay Rays, but the American League regular season winners held their ground and took a late 2-1 victory in the deciding game 5 of the divisional series. While being touted as one of the best pitching squads in the league, before the decider it was the Rays hitters coming in strong and outscoring the Yankees heavies in high-scoring fixtures. Pitchers then got the job done in game 5.

The lowest seeded team in the American League, Houston Astros sent Oakland Athletics packing, despite entering the playoffs with a losing record. Astros hitters found their form at the eleventh hour and blasted 33 runs against the A’s struggling pitchers allowing 3-1 win in the series. Astros pitching squad didn’t always impress, but with the firepower available, they seem capable of outscoring their opponents.

The National League was much more predictable and both favorites, Dodgers and Braves blew through without much trouble, sweeping their respective opponents Padres and Marlins in three. The top of the line pitchers were impeccable through the series and solid hitting provided all-around overwhelming displays against the much weaker opponents. But now the top teams face each other and it will be a whole new ballgame.

Accuscore’s Picks and Predictions

The Dodgers are still favorites to go all the way, but the Braves are putting up a remarkable challenge. We raised Braves as one of the dark horses (odds of +1700) in the World Series race before the season and they still have a chance. In the simulations, Dodgers take the series with 60% probability, with 4-2 being the most likely result with 20% probability. There is a tiny ounce of value in picking the Braves to surprise the Dodgers, with odds of +184 | 2.84 available – the value is less than 5% but there it is and at least to start with, the sharp money is supporting Braves as well . Another value bet could be made for Dodgers winning the series in seven games, with odds of +500 | 6.00 available, but the value is less than 2% here.

In the American League, it all seems very even throughout the simulations results. Rays are the favorites but only with a two-percent margin. We are likely to see six or more games with over 60% probability and it is going to be a thrilling series. The oddsmakers indicate Rays a clear favorite, so there’s a good opportunity to play against the house - like plenty of public bets seem to be - and take the Astros to end up in the World Series with odds of +140 | 2.40 available and some 6% of value to be gained compared to simulations and 48% probability to progress.For those loving the long shots, there’s some value in taking the Astros in five or six games, with odds of +800 | 9.00 and +750 | 8.50 – value is around 2-3% here.

With the Championship Series being as close as it is, there’s not much value in picking the World Series winners as of yet – or rather, anymore. Dodgers and Rays are the clear favorites and if we’d have to pick, we would still go with the Dodgers. Their probability to win is around 37% and the odds indicate closer to 40%, so there is no value to be had at the moment. Besides, we already took that value at +335 earlier on!

Accuscore's MLB 2020 Playoffs Predictions - Wild Card and Divisional Round

The condensed MLB 2020 regular season has come to an end, with 60 games played per team (or most of the teams) and more than half the clubs entering the post season. Eight teams from both leagues will participate in the historical MLB 2020 Playoffs, taking place in various grounds all over the States. First round, also known as wild card round, is played the best out of three, while the divisional round is best out of five. The remaining two rounds, the league championship and then the World Series are still best out of seven - so there is plenty of baseball to be played and the winner should be clear by the end of October.

The schedule for the regular season was tight, with some 47 games postponed and most of them then played as 7-inning doubleheaders. The fixture list remains packed, as there’s no rest for the teams between the games of the series, as would usually be the case. The first round will be played entirely in the home ground of the higher seeded team, so there’s some home advantage – if there ever was one. For the rest of the playoffs the MLB will enter the infamous bubble and the games will be played in seven separate locations.

While the new playoff-format might allow lower seeded teams a tad higher chance to overcome the odds, there are still clear favorites based on the performance in the regular season. But as is usual, Accuscore’s simulations have predicted some surprising results heading into the MLB 2020 Postseason, most likely against the public opinion.

Accuscore’s American League 2020 Playoffs Predictions

Here are the simulated, most probable results in the American League Wild Card and ALDS rounds.

The series in the AL are fairly evenly matched, which was to be expected. New York Yankees seemed dominant at times during the regular season, but had a torrid final chapter which pushed them down to sixth seed. In simulations, those hard times are over and the Yankees overcome Cleveland, who did enjoy a good final run, winning eight of their last 10 games. In a short series, the Yankees have enough firepower to take the win, but Cleveland will not go down easy.

With the favorites Tampa Bay and Minnesota holding the fort, if only narrowly, it comes down to Chicago White Sox to provide another shock in the AL Wild Card round of 2020. While Oakland might not be amongst the favorites to win the World Series, they had a remarkably good season and climbed all the way to third in the AL – but White Sox were only one win behind. It will be an intriguing matchup and no surprise if it takes all three games to settle the score.

In the divisional round, Yankees are still favored by a hair over the Rays, but it is as close as it’ll get. It might come down to the depth in the pitching department, especially if the series go long. Not much rest for those heavy arms, so the relievers and spotters need to be at their best at all times. The same goes in the other ALDS game between the Twins and White Sox: we are most likely to see a 5-game-series of all-even-fixtures. Keep an eye out on the pro gambler's MLB picks to find the best values throughout the playoffs.

Accuscore’s National League 2020 Playoffs Predictions

Here’s how the simulations predict the National League Wild Card and NLDS rounds.

If in the AL it was all even-steven, in the NL it goes the other way: the only even remotely close matchup is played between the Cubs and the Marlins, who were hugely underrated before the season. Cubs are favored in that matchup as well, so it seems all the top seeds are likely to progress to the next round. The Dodgers are by far the most impressive team in the simulations so far and give Brewers no chance in the Wild Card round, but also demolish San Diego Padres in the NLDS series. It bodes well to remember, though, that a lot can happen between here and the next round and even the Dodgers are vulnerable to injuries or lack of form from certain key players (yes, we are staring at you Clayton Kershaw). That being said, there’s not much that can go wrong for the Dodgers and they are the number one horse going forward.

Atlanta Braves was picked by Accuscore as one of the dark horses early on the season and they have delivered. Overcoming the Reds should not prove too problematic and the Cubs seem to pose no threat either. Cubs should be able to beat Miami rather easily, but Marlins have stood their ground after being undermined by everyone. Look for some statements coming from Florida. The Padres were impressive during the regular season and might hop into the shoes of the Dodgers if they fall from grace once again. Cardinals, on the other hand were not exactly impressive after barely managing a winning record – and playing two games less than any other playoff-team.

Have a look at Accuscore’s World Series 2020 Predictions here!

Dodgers vs Angels - Analyst Preview

Written by AccuScore Staff
Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

Dodgers vs Angels: Analyst Preview

Only eight games on the MLB slate for a Monday? Usually there’s more action to pick from, but there’s some quality action in the evening games as the interleague showdown between the Angels and Dodgers takes center stage at Chavez Ravine. The Angels are 38-28 against the Dodgers since 2005, entering this year's Freeway Series after winning the 2016 affair 3-1.

Left-hander Rich Hill and right-hander Ricky Nolasco are set to face off with the Dodgers entering the matchup having won 10 straight games.

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Odds vs Sim Data

Just given how the Dodgers are playing of late, it's no surprise they're heavy run-and-a-half favorites at home, listed at -215 on the money line.

Vegas odds suggest the Dodgers have over a 68 percent change of winning Monday night; AccuScore simulation data seems to agree with that notion with the home side winning about 63-to-64 percent of matchups.

The Dodgers -- despite the lack of overall value -- are a four-star hot trend pick on the money line.

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Betting Trends

• The Angels are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games overall.
• The total has gone OVER in five of the Angels’ last seven games.
• The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Dodgers’ last 16 games.
• The Dodgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at home.

Starting Pitchers

Hill has recorded 40 innings pitched heading into Monday’s matchup, logging a 4.73 ERA with four wins in seven games. He got the win his last time out allowing just one run over five innings against the New York Mets. Historically, he has a 6.23 ERA in six career appearances against the Angels.

Nolasco, on the other hand, hasn't had a whole lot of success this year, recording just 2 wins in 11 games with a 5.23 ERA. The Angels have lost the last 10 games in which Nolasco got the start; he enters Monday's matchup giving up the most HRs in the American League. Nolasco has given up 23 home runs in 84 1/3 innings.

Don't Expect The Mariners To Turn It Around In 2020

Last season, the Seattle Mariners went 68-94 (.420). However, it’s important to realize that Seattle got out to an MLB-best 13-2 start to the year before going 55-92 to close out the campaign, which was more of an accurate representation of how badly they struggled for most of the year. While there’s uncertainty in terms of if and when a season will even occur, DraftKings lists the odds of Seattle having a winning percentage of .410 or less at -112. That’s a solid bet for the following two reasons, no one is picking Seattle to be an MLB consensus pick to win it all, and the Mariners have some glaring issues.  

Awful Pitching Staff

At this point in time, Seattle’s starting rotation would most likely consist of Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Taijuan Walker, Kendall Graveman and Justus Sheffield. Yikes. Gonzales was the team’s ace in 2019 and went 16-13 with a 3.99 ERA in 34 starts, which was respectable, but allowed 210 hits in 203.0 innings pitched which isn’t exactly ideal for a guy at the top of the rotation. Kikuchi struggled mightily in his rookie season and went 6-11 with a 5.46 ERA in 32 starts. He allowed 195 hits and a ridiculous 36 home runs in just 161.2 innings pitched and was no match for Major League hitters. Walker will make his return to the team he broke into the Majors with, but has made just four starts over the last two seasons due to injuries. He’s essentially a wild card, as is Graveman, who is a 29 year old coming off of Tommy John surgery. Sheffield spent time up and down between the Majors, Double-A and Triple-A last season and managed a 5.50 ERA over eight appearances (seven starts) with the Mariners. Seattle’s bullpen had a 4.76 ERA last year, and while they’re essentially turning a new leaf there, they’ll hand the ball off to Yoshihisa Hirano, Carl Edwards Jr., Dan Altavilla, Matt Magill, Brandon Brennan, Taylor Guilbeau and Nestor Cortes Jr. There’s probably a reason the people who make MLB expert picks aren’t picking this team to win the World Series this year. 

Lineup Filled With Question Marks

While Mitch Haniger took strides forward in his 2018 All-Star campaign, he was limited to just 63 games last season due to injuries and is recovering from sports hernia surgery. Some combination of catcher Tom Murphy, first basemen Evan White and Daniel Vogelbach, second baseman Shed Long, third baseman Kyle Seager, shortstop J.P. Crawford, center fielder Mallex Smith and right fielder Kyle Lewis will likely make up the starting lineup while utilityman Austin Nola and the versatile Dee Gordon figure to get in the mix as well and potentially contend for starting roles. While Lewis and White are on the team’s top prospect list, it’s difficult to project immediate Major League success for either of them and the rest of the lineup figures to be one of the lowest-threat squads in all of baseball, despite the elite speed of Smith and Gordon. We wouldn’t recommend putting too many MLB money line bets down on the Mariners this year. 

While we still don’t know how many games the 2020 MLB season will be (if there is one), it seems like a foregone conclusion that the Mariners will struggle at the plate and on the mound, which should amount to overall disappointment in the loss column.

If The 2020 MLB Season Happens, The Red Sox Will Struggle

Mookie Betts: traded away in his prime. Chris Sale: Tommy John surgery. It’s safe to say that Boston Red Sox fans aren’t having a great time this offseason. Slashing salaries isn’t unheard of in Boston: what happened when they shipped off Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers was preceded by that massive deal that got rid of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford back in the day. Remember that? There’s no denying that Boston should still be a formidable group offensively, but there are a couple reasons why you should absolutely bet on Boston to post under on their MLB over under of a .520 win percentage this season. DraftKings is listing those odds at -112. Let’s get into why it doesn’t matter that J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers and company will score runs. 

Starting Rotation

With Sale now ruled out for any 2020 campaign due to Tommy John surgery, it looks like Boston’s starting rotation would be Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, Collin McHugh and Ryan Weber. Rodriguez has double-digit strikeout upside every time out and is coming off a career-best campaign in which he went 19-6 with a 3.81 ERA over 34 starts. But, he’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his career on a start-by-start basis, which isn’t optimal as an ace. After helping the Sox win a title back in 2018, Eovaldi was awarded with a massive multi-year deal that he instantly ruined when he posted a 5.99 ERA over 23 appearances (12 starts) in an injury-ridden 2019 campaign. Perez has a 4.72 career ERA and posted a 5.12 ERA over 32 appearances (29 starts) with the Minnesota Twins last year. At this point in his career, he’s an innings eater. McHugh made 35 appearances (eight starts) for the Houston Astros last season and posted a 4.70 ERA over 74.2 innings. Finally, Weber made 18 appearances (three starts) for the Sox last season and posted a 5.09 ERA over 40.2 innings. As a 29-year-old journeyman, he’ll also be an innings-eater. With a starting rotation full of innings-eaters it is going to be tough to think the people who make MLB picks will be backing the Red Sox this year, even if it is just moneyline picks. With this being said, Boston’s bullpen will most likely be heavily taxed.

Bullpen

Brandon Workman very quietly emerged as an elite closer last season. He will likely be supported by Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Darwinzon Hernandez, Marcus Walden and Ryan Brasier, among others. With Boston’s starting rotation looking so poor, the team will most likely be forced into getting a ton of innings out of this bunch. Even in a shortened season, this will likely become a major issue, especially against powerhouse lineups in the American League like the MLB consensus picks for the AL pennant the New York Yankees and Astros. While the aforementioned names are all serviceable options, none of them possess electric stuff that can truly overpower opposing hitters like some other squads have the fortune of having in the later innings. If this season gets underway, don’t expect much out of the Red Sox.

MLB 2023 Playoffs: Rangers still favored by simulations

The MLB playoffs for the 2023 season have already provided quite a bit of surprising results, with plenty of underdogs sending the favorites packing early on. The regular season league leaders Baltimore Orioles of American League and Atlanta Braves of the National League, both with over 100 regular season wins, were ousted by the fierce dogs, the fifth seeded Texas Rangers and fourth seeded Philadelphia Phillies respectively. In addition, behemoths Los Angeles Dodgers, who claimed the second seed in the National League regular season fell to the sixth seed Arizona Diamondbacks – and it was not even close, as the D’backs swept the divisional round series 3-0 as did the Rangers against Baltimore Orioles.

The conference series of MLB playoffs sees the American League regular season second seeded Houston Astros hosting the best-of-seven battle against Texas Rangers and in the National League it is those hungry dogs facing each other in the dog-eat-dog contest between Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks. As mentioned before, Diamondbacks took everyone by surprise by sending Dodgers to an early holiday from the MLB playoffs by a clean sweep and the Phillies took down 2021 World Series winners Atlanta Braves 3-1. Reigning World Series champions Astros conquered Minnesota Twins in the divisional round with impressive 3-1 series victory, while Texas swept the shooting star of the season, Baltimore Orioles. Who would have thought, you might ask.

Well, Accuscore’s MLB playoffs predictions did. Texas Rangers were heavily favored by the simulations as an odds-underdog against the Orioles, with odds of -105 to win the series and odds of +600 to complete the sweep in three games. Accuscore’s simulations had Rangers 65.9% favorites to win the series with 20.5% probability to win it in three straight set. Hefty profits from this head-to-head covered some losses in the NL, with both Atlanta and the Dodgers picked to win their respective series in the MLB playoffs. Furthermore, the MLB playoffs predictions indicated Texas Rangers as a value pick for World Series as well, with odds of +700 at the time, currently those odds are slashed to +185 at Draftkings Sportsbook

The MLB playoffs Conference series are on their way and the Rangers have already proven not to be a fluke: they went to Houston and shutout the heavy hitting home team 2-0. Starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery led the way with six strikeouts and five allowed hits during his six innings and left a nice depleted field for the relievers Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and José Leclerc. Jonah Heim’s single towards Mauricio Dubon was enough to allow Evan Carter to reach the home base on the top of 2^nd inning and the insurance score came by the bat of Leody Taveras, who homered to an empty field to make it 2-0 on the top of the 5^th inning.

Houston’s at bats were continuously left guessing by Montgomery and despite recording five hits, six runners were left on base. The pitching for the home team was exquisite despite the loss and veteran Justin Verlander stroke out five batters with an ERA of 1.42 – but it was not enough to secure the victory over the impeccable Rangers.

The second game of the series is played on October 16^th with Nathan Eovaldi stepping up on the mound for the Rangers and Framber Valdez getting the nod for the Astros. The odds are currently standing at +106 for the Rangers and -124 for the Astros at the Fanduel Sportsbook.

Accuscore MLB playoffs predictions indicate a coin flip of a match, with Astros being the moneyline favorites with 51.3% while the side value pick is marginally on the Rangers side with 48.7% and odds of +106 (48.5%).

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MLB Opening Day: Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins

The 2018 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season officially kicks off this week on March 29. With all 30 MLB teams in action Thursday, let's take a closer look at two games and where the value's at. This year's opening day will be the earliest start to the season in league history. 

MLB Opening Day: San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers

The Diamondbacks Are Positioned To Make A Splash In 2020

Last season, the Arizona Diamondbacks went 85-77 (.525) and missed a playoff berth. However, after making some offseason moves, the D-Backs are positioned well and our one of the MLB public betting favorites heading into what will most likely be an abbreviated 2020 campaign. DraftKings listed Arizona’s odds to post above a .515 winning percentage at -112, and there are a few reasons to jump all over this MLB over under bet. 

Home Cookin’

Due to the fact that Arizona houses 10 Spring Training fields in addition to Chase Field, there’s a chance that many (or all) neutral field games will be held right in their backyard, if not right in their home stadium. Although crowds will almost certainly not be admitted into games this season, there’s a certain comfort of playing close to family and friends, even if the team ends up being quarantined and only permitted to and from the stadium from a designated hotel. Nonetheless, this could end up being a gigantic advantage to jump on before the odds move. 

Major Offseason Signings

During the offseason, the D-Backs signed Madison Bumgarner, Kole Calhoun and Hector Rondon and also added centerfielder Starling Marte via trade. All of a sudden, they have a solidified starting rotation consisting of Bumgarner, Robbie Ray, Zac Gallen, Marrill Kelly and Luke Weaver. Closer Archie Bradley will now be supported by Rondon, who will likely take on the eighth inning setup role while Calhoun will most likely be the everyday right fielder and Marte will now man center. Bumgarner made 34 starts last season and managed a 9-9 record and 3.90 ERA for the San Francisco Giants. While those numbers didn’t live up to his sparkling 3.13 career ERA, he’s still regarded as an elite pitcher and will immediately take over as the ace. Calhoun is coming off a career-high 33 homers campaign in which he also knocked in 74 runs. While he hit just .232, he will likely be a source of pop towards the bottom of Arizona’s lineup. Rondon made 62 appearances as a member of the Houston Astros last season and managed a 3.71 ERA and 19 holds over 60.2 innings pitched. He will instantly become a major piece of Arizona’s bullpen. Marte will likely bat towards the top of the lineup based on his ability to hit for average (.295 last season), power (a career-high 23 home runs and 82 RBIs) and serve as a threat on the basepaths (23 steals). All four of these additions answered immediate needs and could even lead the people who make MLB expert picks to start to favor the Diamondbacks. 

A Deep And Versatile Lineup

Further, their lineup will give manager Torrey Lovullo a lot of opportunities to platoon his starters including at catcher (Carson Kelly, Stephen Vogt) and first base (Christian Walker, Jake Lamb). The switch-hitting abilities of second baseman Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar will also come in handy, while David Peralta, Marte and Calhoun will man the outfield. Shortstop Nick Ahmed is one of the most sure-handed shortstops in baseball defensively and others like Josh Rojas, Tim Locastro and Ildemaro Vargas could also find playing time in utility roles off the bench. Overall, this is a deep offense that shouldn’t be written off. 

Yankees vs Rays: MLB Analysis

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

We've got a fun one on deck Thursday as Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays head to Yankee Stadium to face CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees. New York's a slight home favorite to win the matchup (-105) with the total at 8.5.

Pitching Matchup

Archer's been fairly pedestrian this season, entering Thursday's matchup with an ERA of 3.77 and a 7-6 record. Good news for the Rays, though, is the fact that their bullpen is in the top third of the league with an overall ERA of 4.1. They've given up their fair share of bombs -- ranking No. 19 with 118 home runs -- to go along with an average of 8.4 hits per nine innings.

Sabathia, with his 9-3 record and an ERA of 3.44, continues to shine when given the chance. He is 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA in his last three starts. Fun fact - Sabathia has allowed one run in 10 innings against the Rays this season. Teams are hitting just .208 against the Yankees bullpen. New York's bullpen is even better than Tampa Bay's, ranking No. 6 in the league in team ERA at 3.86.

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Comparing the Numbers

Tampa Bay is 24-26 on the road, with 26 of the 50 games going OVER the total, 22 staying UNDER, and two pushes. The Rays -- on average -- score 4.6 runs per game and give up 4.1.

New York is 27-17 at home this season, with 25 of the 44 games going OVER, 18 staying UNDER, and one push. The Yankees are averaging approximately 5.3 runs per game while giving up 3.9.

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Vegas Odds vs AccuScore

While Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites, AccuScore data ups that winning probability up to 61 percent. AccuScore sim data would have actually listed New York at a -155 on the money line, making the -105 they opened at fairly attractive.

At the time of publication, New York is hovering between -115 and -120 on the money line in most books in Vegas.