Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
We've got a fun one on deck Thursday as Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays head to Yankee Stadium to face CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees. New York's a slight home favorite to win the matchup (-105) with the total at 8.5.
Archer's been fairly pedestrian this season, entering Thursday's matchup with an ERA of 3.77 and a 7-6 record. Good news for the Rays, though, is the fact that their bullpen is in the top third of the league with an overall ERA of 4.1. They've given up their fair share of bombs -- ranking No. 19 with 118 home runs -- to go along with an average of 8.4 hits per nine innings.
Sabathia, with his 9-3 record and an ERA of 3.44, continues to shine when given the chance. He is 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA in his last three starts. Fun fact - Sabathia has allowed one run in 10 innings against the Rays this season. Teams are hitting just .208 against the Yankees bullpen. New York's bullpen is even better than Tampa Bay's, ranking No. 6 in the league in team ERA at 3.86.
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Comparing the Numbers
Tampa Bay is 24-26 on the road, with 26 of the 50 games going OVER the total, 22 staying UNDER, and two pushes. The Rays -- on average -- score 4.6 runs per game and give up 4.1.
New York is 27-17 at home this season, with 25 of the 44 games going OVER, 18 staying UNDER, and one push. The Yankees are averaging approximately 5.3 runs per game while giving up 3.9.
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Vegas Odds vs AccuScore
While Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites, AccuScore data ups that winning probability up to 61 percent. AccuScore sim data would have actually listed New York at a -155 on the money line, making the -105 they opened at fairly attractive.
At the time of publication, New York is hovering between -115 and -120 on the money line in most books in Vegas.