Accuscore's FIFA World Cup 2018 Preview and Predictions - Group Stage

FIFA World Cup 2018 - Group Stage

It is time for the most anticipated highlight of the year for many football fans around the world: FIFA World Cup 2018. Kicking off less than a week from now, on Thursday 15^th in Russia, the tournament includes 32 nations in the hunt for the World Cup.

The 32 participating teams are divided into 8 groups of four teams, playing head-to-head within the groups. Top two teams in the group then advance to the knockout round of 16, while the other two teams are done. The knockout round of 16 is pre-set in a way that a group winner will face the 2^nd placed team from another group. This makes winning ones group extremely important, unless you want to take on the biggest favorites early on. Elimination rounds then continue, until only the best of the best remains.

Accuscore is, as usual, right there where it happens already before it happens. With the advanced simulation engine it’s possible to make detailed projections on each individual game, leading to the knockout stage and eventually to the finalists and of course the winner.

As an Accuscore subscriber, you’ll gain access to detailed projections and analysis on each of the 64 FIFA World Cup 2018 matches, including star-rated value picks and player performance predictions! JOIN NOW!

Accuscore’s analytics provide each team’s probabilities to win their group, advance to the round of 16 and the projected point average reached in the group stage. The knockout rounds can then be set based on those probabilities. Let’s start with the group stages.

 

 

Accuscore simulations have never been shy to contradict the public opinion or market odds – more often than not with excellent success. This time around the FIFA World Cup Group Stage simulations offer no massive surprises, but a couple of smaller upsets might be in the air.

In Group A the Russians will be challenged by Egypt, especially if Mohamed Salah is able to perform at his best. In Group C, Peru has shown some incredible poise in making it to the World Cup from the tough South American qualification and will be a thorn in the side of the Danes. The Argentinians, led by Leo Messi are likely to take the Group D by storm, but the fight for the second spot is wide open between Croatia, Nigeria and Iceland. Elsewhere, Mexico might be in a bit of a pickle with feisty Swedes and South Koreans, but are still likely to push through from Group F, which Germany of course is most likely to win.

Probably the only “major” upset in the simulations comes from Group E, where Serbia is pulling one over Switzerland. Costa Rica is not a pushover either and might cause some problems for the two qualification hopefuls – but of course not for the Brazilians, who are likely to dominate the group. Groups G and H look pretty much exactly as expected.

What’s your take on Accuscore’s FIFA World Cup 2018 Group Stage simulations? Agree or disagree? Join the conversation in Facebook or Twitter!

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Accuscore’s Championship Season 2019/2020 Preview

Promotion hopefuls and big disappointments

The UK boasts one of the World’s toughest football leagues, the Championship at least if asked from the British followers. Second tier to the fabled Premier League, it’s a stepping stone for many players and clubs as well. Season is as tough as it gets, with 46 games played in 9 months – but there’s more. Two top teams win straight promotion to the Premier League but the teams seeded 3 to 6 get to play a gruesome playoff-series to figure out the final promotion spot. For many, the Championship’s playoff’s and especially the final, is the true pinnacle of the footballing season.

Whilst Championship lacks the big-money signings and the glory that Premier League is known for, the intensity and the quality of play is surprisingly high in the second tier. Almost every season there are big surprises and massive disappointments – exactly what makes a league worth following. Last season’s dark horse were the winners Norwich, predicted 11^th by bookmakers (and 16^th by us…) while the biggest favorites Stoke City fell to 12^th. None of the promoted teams were predicted top-6 by the bookmakers nor Accuscore. Let’s see if we can improve this time around!

Accuscore’s Championship Analysis

As we’ve previously pointed out, Championship is hard to predict and not even the bookmakers have solved the puzzle. There are a couple of interesting differences between the bookmakers’ assessments and Accuscore’s simulations that we’d like to point out. While it’s difficult to pick one team to win it all, there are loads of outright options to choose from. We take a look at the most attractive odds for promotion candidates as well as one team that looks like a good pick to go down.

Attractive odds for Promotion

 

Brentford

Brentford have been almost there for many season, bubbling under but never quite the favorites. They were a disappointing 11^th last season, but managed 3^rd best record at home. Goes without saying that replicating their home form to away would already be enough, but they’ve also grown a tad stronger in all areas and more remarkably the young stars such as Neal Maupay are still around. Brentford are young and ambitious so look for them to make a push for promotion through playoffs if not straight. They’re valued at 5.50 to win promotion and we do like that!

Nottingham

Another team that has left their fans ripping hair out of their head for more than once. Last season they were touted in top 4 but fell to 9^th and another managerial victim was produced. Current manager, Sabri Lamouchi is a huge question mark, but the players at his disposal are better than the results last season indicated. They’ve lost a couple of players but brought in interesting names as well. Nottingham is a definite dark horse, but they might just fade away if Lamouchi doesn’t get a flying start. It’s more of a longshot, but Forest is placed only 10^th by bookmakers while Accuscore’s simulation push them to 7^th. There’s nice value in punting for promotion with odds of 8.00!

Middlesbrough

Getting a bit repetitive, but Middlesbrough crashing out of top-6 last season was a massive surprise to everyone. Tony Pulis did a decent job, but it just wasn’t enough for promotion-hungry M’boro. Assistant Jonathan Woodgate has everything to lose, but the team looks competitive and the starting XI is arguably top-6 quality. Good mix of experience and raw talent, but not much depth. There could be more to come from the transfer market, but we like Middlesbrough in the playoffs, which is three spots higher than the bookmakers. After that, everything’s possible and the odds of 7.00 for promotion is too good to pass by.

 

Bottom feeder club

Luton

All due respect to Luton Town, who fought their way back to the big stage after going practically bankrupt more than a decade ago. Scraping through League One is one thing, but Championship is a whole new ball game for too many of Luton’s players. They have acquired a handful of experienced, quality players, such as Calum McManaman, Martin Cranie, Ryan Tunnicliffe and Jacob Butterfield, who just might be enough to pull first-time-manager Graeme Jones’ squad out of the relegation battle. The Accuscore simulation engine is not that merciful though, and Luton drops five places compared to bookmakers’ assessment. With these odds of 5.50, we’ll go for the jugular!

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Accuscore’s French Ligue 1 Season 2019/2020 Preview

Is there life on France…behind PSG?

The French top tier football league Ligue 1 kicks-off this Friday. There’s been no lack of drama and headlines during the off-season, but it has once again only concentrated on PSG and namely a Brazilian forward called Neymar. The saga continues, but regardless of its ending, PSG is still clear favorites to win the league and there’s barely a challenger on sight. They’ve won six out of seven previous championships, only anomaly being the amazing feat pulled by Monaco in 2017. Monaco’s fall from grace has been nothing but spectacular after the championship and last season saw the famed club in the relegation battle - which they eventually survived by the skin of their teeth and 2 points.

Last season featured some surprising results as well, as 2010/2011 champions LOSC Lille reclaimed some of their old glory and landed the no. 2 spot behind PSG, hence qualifying to the Champions League Group Stage. Monaco’s absence from their usual top-5 position, Saint-Etienne took advantage and pulled a rabbit from their hat finishing 4^th right before Marseille, who were struggling for most of the season.

Challengers remain

The summer’s transfers out included some big names, such as Lille’s Nicolas Pepe, Bordeaux’s Jules Kounde and Lyon’s trio Tanguy Ndombele, Nabil Fekir, Ferland Mendy. As usual, no big name signings outside of PSG were made, but the top teams have their replacements in place. For example, Lyon replaced their losses by going hunting from Lille, landing Brazilian powerhouse Thiago Mendes and mobile left-back, Mali international Youssuf Kone. While Lyon is likely to keep up their pace with excellent young core and hot prospects on the verge of a break-through, hard times might follow in Lille.

Situation in Monaco is interesting, as the tumultuous season finally saw the return of the creator of their recent success Leonardo Jardim as a manager in January. His 17 games in charge were not exactly glorious, but enough to save the team from what looked like a certain relegation. Entering a new season, Monaco is a huge question mark, but they’ve tasted success under Jardim before.

One of last season’s success stories, Saint-Etienne looks to build on their 4^rd place with not much changes. Manager Jean-Louis Gasset moved aside and made way to his long-time assistant Ghislain Printant, but the team remains competitive and they might prove to be a real thing – at least challenging the regular top clubs like Marseille, Monaco, Lyon and Lille.

Enough of the speculation and onto the simulations. This is how the French Ligue 1 Season 2019/2020 is bound to happen, according to Accuscore’s simulation engine.

Accuscore’s best picks for Ligue 1 Season 2019/2020

In the illustration above, we can spot a couple of differences between the oddsmakers assessments and Accuscore’s simulations. PSG is such a clear favorite to win, that the assessment is better to do without that spoilsport. The most attractive odds are bordered in the grid and here’s the analysis regarding those picks.

Saint-Etienne

As stated before, Saint-Etienne got through the summer unscathed and return as competitive as ever. Their system seemed to work perfectly last season and they rarely dropped points – unlike the top teams tend to do in Ligue 1. There were no ups and downs, but they played solid throughout the season, which is a remarkable feat with not that deep quality. On the downside, they didn’t get much stronger either and have some European games to cope with, but Accuscore’s simulations believe their production to keep up to last season and even improve a bit. They are by no means a candidate to challenge PSG, but can easily keep up with the rest.

The odds of 6.00 for top-3 spot and 9.00 to finish just behind PSG are attractive enough to place a bet.

Lyon

Lyon seems like the eternal number two in Ligue 1, but they probably don’t mind. Despite losing key players again this summer, they’ve a great system in place and excellent young core in addition to quality replacements. It’s hard to fathom them falling behind any of their counterparts, unless something goes really wrong to start with. It’s quite a safe bet they’re right up there with PSG, but not quite able to challenge for the title.

The odds of 2.75 for 2^nd place might seem a tad low, but we’d go with a 50/50 chance so that’ll do!

Brest and Dijon

The biggest relegation candidates by far in any oddmakers books and in the last three in Accuscore’s simulations. Both teams are newly promoted and will encounter problems during the season. There are a lot more accomplished teams fighting against the relegation and it’s hard to imagine the likes of Toulouse or Angers to fail in their bid to stay up. The odds are not amazing for Brest or Dijon to go down, but good enough to make it profitable already if one gets relegated.

Take Brest to go down with odds of 2.75 and Dijon to go down with 2.88 – one of two will do!

Reims

A bit of a stretch, but the odds are attractive. Reims was one of the better small teams last season, finishing 8^th, but many times there’s a bit of a sophomore slump after overachieving. Their team is not that strong and they no longer have the element of surprise on their side. Reims also failed to acquire any improvements during the off-season, which might prove costly in the battle for Ligue 1 survival. Reims is no the most likely team to go down, but in Accuscore simulations they struggle mainly against their own level teams down the table.

Odds of 7.00 for Reims to go down are a bit too high and we’ll take this long shot with ease.

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Accuscore’s La Liga Season 2019/2020 Preview and Predictions

Nothing new under the Spanish sun

Spanish football league La Liga kicks-off this weekend and we could’ve copy/pasted this article from last year, since not much has changed after Barcelona’s triumphant fourth championship in five seasons. Only Real Madrid twice and Atletico Madrid in that oddball year of 2014 have managed to dethrone Barcelona in the past decade and it seems highly unlikely this year as well. Stranger things have happened, though, but not in Spain.

Barcelona leads the way heading to the new season with acquisitions of highly rated Ajax midfielder Frenkie de Jong and Atletico Madrid’s prolific forward Antoine Griezmann. With the offense already loaded with talent, Barcelona became even more dangerous up front which might ease the burden on Leo Messi, who has been suffering from minor injuries. The repetition of the past two successful seasons seems inevitable, as they are by far the strongest team in every position and have depth like no other team in the World. Barcelona’s odds to win the league are slashed to 1.67 | -149, which is not attractive enough for a shot – even if it’s a likely winner.

With the obvious now written down, let’s have a look at the Accuscore’s simulations for the oncoming season.

Challenging Barcelona

Challengers are once again as usual, Real and Atletico Madrid. Real has struggled domestically after the departure of Christiano Ronaldo and they’ve yet to find a new leader especially in the offensive end. Now they’re putting their faith in Chelsea’s fantastic Eden Hazard, who seems like a perfect fit for Zinedine Zidane’s resurrection project. The likes of Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Casemiro patrol the midfield and the team has good balance overall. Acquisitions of defender Eder Militao and left-back Ferland Mendy provide much needed competition and depth to the defensive end, where Sergio Ramos and Marcelo have carried a huge load in the past seasons. Real is likely to do better than last season, when they lost incredible 12 times. Still, Barcelona is way ahead and it’s hard to see them stumble. Real to win the league with odds of 3.40 | +240 is there-there if it’s worth a shot – in simulations they are 10 points behind, but win the league with ~30% probability.

Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid is now without their talisman Antoine Griezmann, but acquired “new CR7” in Portuguese wonderkid Joao Felix. It’s the same old story for Atletico, flying under the radar and fighting relentlessly with the big boys. They’ve bolstered the team with tough and hard-working players like Porto’s midfielder Hector Herrera and central back Felipe, while bringing in Real’s outcast midfielder Marcos Llorente and Spurs fullback Kieran Trippier. Diego Simeone knows exactly how to win the league without the superheroes, but it would definitely need a slip up from both of the giants. It’s an unlikely scenario so there’s not much to bet on Atletico this time around.

Fighting for Europe

Behind the big three comes a couple of hopefuls to capture the coveted Champions League seeding at 4^th. Europa-league games are a fine target as well and this time there’s only the 5^th and 6^th achieving that chance – down from last season’s seven.

Valencia and Sevilla are the most likely UCL-candidates, but are both way behind the top three. Valencia took the fourth spot last season and will have some burden from the Champions League this season. However, they’ve got adequate depth in that regard and have otherwise been able to stay competitive. Sevilla, on the other hand, have a new manager Julen Lopetegui, who’s been busy molding the team to his liking. Gone are the likes of Wissam Ben Yeder, Pablo Sarabia and Quincy Promes, replaced by dynamic Rony Lopes, Lucas Ocampos and Oliver Torres. Sevilla’s attacking style is likely to be balanced at least a bit, with acquisitions of highly rated Ligue 1 central backs Jules Koundje and Diego Carlos. Sevilla and Valencia are fighting equally for the 4^th place, but Valencia might have a slight advantage due to fielding a well-gelled team from the start. Odds for Valencia to make it to top-4 are 2.50 | +150 and Sevilla 3.50 | +250, which are nicely playable – you choose which to go for!

Moving down the table to the Europa-league hopefuls, there’s a bunch of candidates relatively close to one another. Within six points in the simulations are Getafe, Athletic Bilbao, Real Betis, Real Sociedad and Villarreal. Now, Villarreal is predicted to top 6 by many oddsmakers, but their last season was catastrophic seeing them succumb to 14^th and they’ve not grown that much stronger during the summer. On top of that, their closest rivals look more competitive this time around so Villarreal is predicted only tenth in Accuscore simulations. Getafe is the highest riser, mostly due to excellent last season and a team that looked only to get better under the guidance of Pepe Bordalás. Not much has changed from last season, except for a bit of experience brought in. Getafe is in for another successful season, with odds of 4.00 | +300 for achieving top 6.

Another team grown a tad stronger during the summer is Real Betis. Especially the acquisition of prolific striker Borja Iglesias from Espanyol was a coup, while Nabil Fekir and Juanmi provide adequate support. Quite unproven manager Rubi is a questionmark, but Betis is definitely challenging for top 6 spot as well. The odds for the feat are 4.33 | +333, which makes Betis a good bet for top 6 seeding.

Going down

Surprisingly the trio going down in Accuscore simulations is almost the same as the odds indicate. Only exception is Granada, who is likely to stay up according to Accuscore’s simulations and head down by the bookmakers. Valladolid is quite simply the weakest team this season, with newly promoted Mallorca. They escaped relegation last season by four points, mostly due to Girona’s disastrous last couple of weeks. This time Valladolid is not likely to be as lucky and down they go. Odds of 2.88 | +188 are good enough for a punt. Taking the place of Granada in Accuscore’s most likely relegation candidates is Deportivo Alaves. Alaves had a successful season last time around and they climbed to 11^th. However, they head to the season with a new and unproven manager and first time ever, any expectations. The battle at the relegation line will be tough, but with odds of 3.25 | +225, Alaves is a good pick.

Accuscore’s La Liga 2019/2020 Outright Picks

To win: Real Madrid 3.40 | +240

Top-4: Valencia 2.50 | +150, Sevilla 3.50 | +250

Top-6: Getafe 4.00 | +300, Real Betis 4.33 | +333

Relegation: Valladolid 2.88 | +188, Deportivo Alaves 3.25 | +225

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Accuscore’s Scottish Premiership Season 2019/20 Preview

Scotland’s Premiership – Not a surprise in sight?

After Glasgow Rangers’ sudden fall from grace, there’s only been one ruler in Scottish football and it remains so until this day. Glasgow Celtic has now won eight championships in a row and it seems futile to try and challenge them. Last season Celtic led the way by 11 points after regular season and finished off 9 points ahead of their rivals after the Championship Group. Remarkably, however, that 9 points margin is by far the smallest in the past eight years of Celtic rule. Are the winds changing in Scottish football?

According to Accuscore simulations, no. Glasgow Celtic are as clear front-runners as they’ve ever been. After Celtic, it all becomes much more interesting: Glasgow Rangers are still the second best, but they’re now facing serious challenge from the likes of Aberdeen and the Edinburgh duo Hearts & Hibernian. Could it be the first time since the beginning of time, or at least the Scottish Premier League, that the winner would be other than Celtic or Rangers? Here’s how the table is likely to look after 33 games of regular season is done.

 

Accuscore’s best Scottish eggs

According to the simulations, not much has changed up there in Scotland. The Glasgow duo are very much alike as they were last season and are still the strongest clubs around. And the challengers are the usual suspects as well. Same old, same old, but Is there any value in outright bets at all? We think so!

In Accuscore simulations, St. Johnstone and Kilmarnock have literally changed places compared to the bookmakers’ assessment, which gives a nice edge to go for the opposite selection: St. Johnstone to make it to top 6 with odds of 2.50 and Kilmarnock to fall to bottom 6 with odds of 2.30. Admittedly it’s not the sexiest of bets out there, but it’s the one that actually boasts some value.

Kilmarnock had a splendid last season, going on to challenge the Glasgow teams and finally ending up 3^rd. The manager Steve Clark got a call-up to Scottish national team and Kilmarnock now have an unproven manager Angelo Alessio. They have not grown any stronger compared to the competition and there’s a lot of questions on how the team will play after Clarke’s success. Struggles are imminent, say the simulations.

St. Johnstone, on the other hand, showed some promise gain at times, but succumbed out of the Championship Group by six points after abysmal results towards the end of the season against teams lower in the table. Long serving manager Tommy Wright has been with the team for six years and made it to top 6 in the first four. With the most reputable player Tony Watt gone to Russia, there’s some big shoes to fill, but ample replacement already available with the likes of Matty Kennedy ready to improve from last season’s six goals and six assists.

Another team sticking out from the crowd is newly (again) promoted Ross County. They’ve been up and down, but now there’s a handful of new players and they’re intending to stay up for good. It’s definitely as bad a team as the bookmakers would like us to believe, but there’s hardly any bets to go for. If you are brave or crazy, squint your eyes enough and have deep pockets, go for top 6 placement with odds of 17.00!

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GUIDE: AccuScore's NFL and College Football Picks

Understanding AccuScore’s New Football Simulations

Been away for a while? AccuScore may looks a bit different. Take a deep breath. The simulations haven’t changed, but the look has. So, we’re going to walk you through how to find your football picks and also how to read the new simulations.

There are two views: The Graph View and the Grid View.

The Graph View

Side Value and Moneyline

As this was a pretty big change, it took us a moment to get everything into the graph view, but now we have it. Let’s take a look at an example from NCAA Football below.

In the example above, there is a 4-star moneyline pick and 2-star side value pick. The Moneyline pick is clearly Arkansas, represented by the outside circle. Also, the 88.8% of simulations resulted in Arkansas winning, which written below the team’s symbol. This is the moneyline pick. AccuScore’s simulations are represented by the outside circle.



The side value, however, is represented by the inside circle, and as you can see in the image above, the odds only give Louisiana Tech a 5.69% chance of winning versus AccuScore giving Louisiana Tech an 11% chance of winning, so there is side value on picking the underdog here.

Over/Under and Point Spread Picks

In the illustration below, you’ll find a green arrow and a red arrow. The green arrow is AccuScore’s Totals pick. In the example below, AccuScore is picking the Over in this game, which is a two-star pick. Below the stars, the “52” represents the line, so AccuScore is saying this game will go OVER 52. The 58.4% shows you what percentage of simulations went OVER 52. If you click on the “free picks” or “more info” box, you can play around with slider tools to adjust the lines if you’re getting a different line.



The red arrow shows AccuScore’s pick against the spread. In this game, the pick is LA Tech +25, which is a two-star pick. Again, the 56% represents the percentage of simulations that saw LA Tech losing by 25 or fewer points or winning outright.

Grid View

To get to the grid view, take a look at the red arrow above and click on the three lines. The graph symbol allows you to switch back to the graph view. Due to the number of games in College Football, the grid view is now the default view. Also, you can type in team abbreviations in the search box (green arrow) and find any game you’re looking for faster. The graph view is the default view for most other sports, but switching to the grid view is the same process for every sport.

Understanding the Grid View



Let’s use the same example we’ve been using and the same game that’s listed in the above illustration of the grid view: LATech vs Arkansas

Let’s go column by column to understand what everything means in the grid view. Acc Sim% simply lists AccuScore’s simulation calculations, which list Arkansas as an 88% favorite. Conversely, Louisiana Tech only won 11% of simulations. That’s easy enough.

Odds% is AccuScore converting the public odds into a percentage. Before you freak out and think something is wrong, the percentage is over 100% because bookies add a bit of juice to their end. While we removed that juice in the past and converted odds to be out of 100%, leaving the juice in actually allows for a clearer look at true side value because it doesn’t arbitrarily push down Vegas’ odds as a percentage.

In this case, Vegas oddsmakers are saying there is a 97.22% chance of Arkansas winning and only a 5.69% chance of LATech winning. Looking at it side-by-side with AccuScore’s Sim%, the side value is clearly on LATech.

The next column is “PS” and “ACC PS.” The top number is the point spread set by bookmakers, which is Arkansas -25. Below it, AccuScore lists the point spread line we believe it should be: Arkansas -21. Since Vegas is overinflating Arkansas, the point spread pick is Louisiana Tech.

Next, we have the “OU” and “Acc OU” column. Similar to the last column, the first number (52) is the Over/Under line set by Vegas oddsmakers. The number below it is the Over/Under line AccuScore calculated. Since AccuScore’s line is higher than the public odds, the pick is the OVER.

The final three columns are ML, SV, and Total, and all of them simply list the star-rated picks. As the season continues, we will have more trends and 3 and 4-star picks. Using the arrows, members can sort games by star-ratings and instantly find all games offering 4-star totals picks.

Note: AccuScore still offers the ability to change lines and change spreads by clicking on the team names in the grid view. Also, you can see written previews for every game, top trends and player projections.