Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @Rohitghosh

NCAA Tournament: First Four Games

AccuScore has expert picks Against the Spread and on Over/Unders for every single game in the NCAA tournament, including all four of these play-in games. All NCAA Tournament Picks are star-rated. Join now using the "MMadness" coupon code and get $100 off an annual membership (33% off!). AccuScore has picks for every game, so Join AccuScore Today!

No. 16 Albany vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary's - Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. ET. Winner faces No. 1 Florida.

Albany earned an NCAA Tournament berth after beating Stony Brook in the final of the America East Conference title game. Similarly, Mount St. Mary’s had some trouble getting conference wins earlier in the season, but seemed to a flip a switch in the post-season, winning the Northeastern Conference championship over Robert Morris.

Experience goes a long way, and Albany’s in the tournament for the second straight year. Looking at recent trends, the safer bet is to take Albany on the spread and money line. They are 6-0 against the spread (ATS) in the last 6 games, and 10-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Albany, on average, holds teams to below 64 points per game on 41.9 percent FG shooting. Mount St. Mary’s is No. 50 in the nation with 76.3 points per game, and ranks No. 11 in the nation with 8.9 3-point field goals per game. They are No. 9 in the nation in points off three-pointers, averaging 26.6 points per game from made three-point shots. As is often the case, it’ll be a battle of two different styles of play.

AccuScore has Albany as slight 53 percent favorites to win Tuesday. The average score in simulations is 69-68, with Mount St. Mary’s having a 57.3 percent chance of covering the +2.5 spread.

No. 12 N.C. State vs. No. 12 Xavier Tuesday, 9:10 p.m. ET. Winner faces No. 5 Saint Louis.

Despite being just 3-9 against top-50 teams, NC State somehow found a way to get in to the NCAA Tournament. They did, however, take down Syracuse last week at a neutral site and have NBA-caliber talent in T.J. Warren. Warren led the ACC with nearly 25 points per game and will be the biggest matchup nightmare in the first four. Keep an eye on Xavier’s Semaj Christon - 6’3” guard who just might take the spotlight from Warren.

Xavier puts up about 72 points per game and should face little resistance on that end of the floor from an NC State team that gives up nearly 70 points per game. Neither side is expected to blow the other one out, giving extra weight to NC State’s 21-7 ATS record in last 28 neutral site games. Eight of NC State’s last nine games have gone OVER. Whether or not you, as the bettor, put much weight on this factor of luck, but Xavier is one of the leaders in the nation in lowest FT% against.

AccuScore has Xavier as solid 63 percent favorites. The average score in simulations is 72-68, with Xavier having a 54.4 percent chance of covering the -2.5 spread. Warren is projected to finish Tuesday’s game with 26 points (53% FG), 5 rebounds. Christon is projected to get 18 points (49%), 5 assists, 3 rebounds.

No. 16 Cal Poly vs. No. 16 Texas Southern Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. ET. Winner faces No. 1 Wichita State.

Cal Poly had lost nine of its previous 11 games before running the table in the Big West Tournament. The Mustangs have no business being in the tournament, and their play-in game vs Texas Southern University (TSU) should show that. TSU also has very little talent to stay competitive against the top-64 teams, and their lack of defense is a huge red-flag when looking at this matchup. They give up 74 points per game and allow opponents to shoot 35.9 percent from beyond the arc.

Keep an eye on TSU’s Aaric Murray, who had 27 points and 10 rebounds in the SWAC championship game. He dropped 48 on Temple earlier in the season.

Cal Poly is the current favorite (-2), but is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games.

No. 11 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Iowa Wednesday, 9:10 p.m. ET. Winner faces No. 6 UMass.

The Tennessee-Iowa matchup is easily the most exciting one of the First Four. Tennessee is an elite defensive team, limiting opponents to just 40.8 percent shooting from the field. They have held their last five opponents to below 56 points. Anyone looking at 1H odds, Iowa is No. 3 in the nation in first half point differential with +8.9. Iowa’s offense is also one of the most efficient, ranking No. 12 with an efficiency of 1.125.

Players to Watch: Jordan McRae (Tennessee) | Roy Devyn Marble (Iowa) - McRae, who averages 18.6 points per game, is projected to finish with 17 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists; Marble, who averages 17.3 per game, is projected to finish with 17 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists.

AccuScore has Tennessee as 59 percent favorites to defeat Iowa, with the average margin of victory being 2.4 points in simulations. Tennessee is favored by 3 points (-3).

It's the best time time to sign up with the tournament just getting going... Join AccuScore Today!