Expect a close game with the Miami Dolphins winning 42.0% of simulations, and the San Francisco 49ers 58.0% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Miami Dolphins commit fewer turnovers in 32.0% of simulations and they go on to win 73.0% when they take care of the ball. The San Francisco 49ers wins 74.0% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 286.0 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (42.0% chance) then he helps his team win 45%. Jimmy Garoppolo is averaging 288.0 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (40.0% chance) then he helps his team win 63%.
| Miami Dolphins | | San Francisco 49ers | | |
|---|
| All Games | 10-8-0 | All Games | 13-7-0 | |
| Road Games | 50-50-00 | Home Games | 9-2-0 | No Edge |
| When Underdog | 6-3-0 | When Favored | 13-5-0 | |
| Non-Division Opp | 4-7-0 | Non-Division Opp | 6-7-0 | |
| Opp .500+ Record | 3-4-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 6-3-0 | |
| Miami Dolphins | | San Francisco 49ers | | |
|---|
| All Games | 10-7-0 | All Games | 12-8-0 | |
| Road Games | 50-30-00 | Home Games | 4-4-0 | No Edge |
| When Underdog | 6-4-0 | When Favored | 6-7-0 | |
| Non-Division Opp | 6-5-0 | Non-Division Opp | 9-4-0 | |
| Opp .500+ Record | 76-47-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 95-65-0 | |
| Miami Dolphins | | San Francisco 49ers | | |
|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 9-9-0 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 10-10-0 | OVER |
| On Road | 8-2-0 | At Home | 6-5-0 | OVER |
| All Totals Last Season | 7-10-0 | All Totals Last Season | 9-11-0 | UNDER |
| On Road Last Season | 2-6-0 | At Home Last Season | 4-4-0 | UNDER |
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