prospects based on my success probability model:
Andy Isabella
N'Keal Harry
Marquise Brown
AJ Brown
Scott Miller
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
DK Metcalf
KeeSean Johnson
Greg Dortch
Hakeem Butler
Emanuel Hall
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) March 30, 2019
This generated plenty of Twitter conversation, but there was one question I received more often than any other:
Who the heck is Scott Miller?
It has become obvious to me that not many people are even aware of the Bowling Green product’s existence, let alone his ability. Once we dive into it, I think you’ll like what you see.
Scott Miller the Producer
When Miller first stepped on campus in 2015, Bowling Green was actually fairly strong at the WR position. Both Roger Lewis and Gehrig Dieter were leading wideouts on the team. Lewis went on to be a UDFA for the New York Giants, accruing over 400 yards receiving in 2017, while Dieter would transfer to Alabama, and is now a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s about as loaded as it gets for a MAC school.
Still, Miller found ways to contribute to the team. He was the primary kick returner as a true freshman and played on special teams. Miller’s true freshman season started with a redshirt, but he proved to be too valuable to keep off the field.
Miller’s sophomore season is where things really picked up. Lewis and Dieter were gone, and Miller ascended to the top WR in the offense. He went for 968 yards and 10 touchdowns, which accounted for 36 percent of the receiving yards, and over half the TDs. Statistically, this was his breakout season at just 19.4 years old. No WR in the 2019 draft class broke out earlier than Miller.
After a disappointing 2017 season, Miller bounced back in a big way in 2018. He had over 1,100 yards receiving and nine TDs. Miller accounted for 40 percent of team passing yards, 36 percent of team passing TDs, and over three yards per pass attempt. It was a remarkable season. It is worth noting that this was not a surprise to people following the young WRs career. Miller was on the preseason Biletnikoff Award watch list for the nation’s top WR.
Overall, it was an incredibly productive career for Miller, who checked the following boxes:
- Young breakout age
- Top five in final season receiving yards per team pass attempt
- Produced as a returner
- Has rushing ability on his resume
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Scott Miller the Athlete
Even with all that Miller had accomplished, he was still not getting love from the traditional scouting community. He was rated outside of the top 50 WRs on NFL Draft Scout, and after not receiving an invite to the NFL Combine, there were questions to be answered about his size and athleticism.
He answered them all at his pro day.
Miller was listed at five feet, 11 inches and just 166 pounds by the Bowling Green roster page. He ended up being two inches shorter when measured but weighed in at 174 pounds. Right away, Miller’s chances of finding success became elevated.
Then came the athletic testing. Miller ran a 4.36 40-yard dash. Even if we add some time on to account for it not being laser-timed, that’s an impressive number for any WR prospect. Miller also tested under seven seconds in the three-cone, and over 10 feet in the broad jump. He looked every bit the part of an NFL athlete.
Miller’s SPARQ score was almost identical to slot prospect Mecole Hardman of Georgia, who people have pegged as a mid-round pick. It shows up on #thetape too. The first clip in the highlight video below is of Miller burning four-star Oregon safety Steven Stephens.
Scott Miller Final Verdict
Miller has been getting passed over because of his size and small school, but is someone who should rise throughout the draft process. His production was among the best in the class, and Miller’s ability to contribute on special teams should help him to find his way onto an NFL roster. If he can get onto the field, the model gives Miller a 47 percent chance of finding success from a fantasy perspective.
Miller is productive, athletic, and not so small that he can’t produce in a modern NFL that has been favoring speed and quickness over size at the WR position. In dynasty rookie drafts, Miller is unlikely to be selected at all, and should consistently be someone you take with your third round selection. He undoubtedly has more upside than anyone else you could take in that range of picks.
2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles:
Josh Jacobs
Kelvin Harmon
N’Keal Harry
A.J Brown
Noah Fant
Jazz Ferguson
Miles Boykin
Hakeem Butler
Devin Singletary
Parris Campbell
Gardner Minshew
Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Darrell Henderson
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Andy Isabella
D.K Metcalf
T.J Hockenson
