Stage 2 Final Round Game Previews
One of the main CS:GO events of the season, ESL Pro League has reached the final round of the stage 2 in Europe. Four out of the six qualified teams still have a lot to play for as fnatic, mousesports and Natus Vincere are all at 9 points after winning three and losing one, while Astralis is a peg below with 6 points but still in contest. OG and FaZe are already out of the contest and are appropriately facing each other in the final round in a meaningless game for both.
FaZe – OG
The teams are only playing for pride – and a bit of cash – anymore as the 2nd stage ended in disappointment for both. Currently 9th in the world ranking, FaZe wasn’t able to win a single game in the latter stage, despite grabbing map wins from NaVi, mousesports and fnatic – just not enough to secure wins from any. They did face OG in the first stage, beating them comfortably 2-0, with double 16-7 results in Nuke and Dust2.
OG is still in the development phase and they showed some fantastic performances on the way, but couldn’t turn the games in their advantage when needed. OG took a win over fnatic, but lost straight up 2-0 to both Astralis and mousesports. While there’s still a lot of work to be done on the drawing board and the playing field, the team showed off their huge potential occasionally and are on the right track.
Accuscore’s simulations predict a much closer match than the odds indicate in this bottom of the table matchup. Playing without any pressure could easily tip the scales towards the underdog OG, boasting hefty odds of around +175. Accuscore predicts OG to win with 49% probability, which would translate to odds of about +105.
Natus Vincere – fnatic
NaVi captured the world ranking #1 spot last month from Astralis, but changing from LAN’s to Online has not been the easiest of transitions for the team. They have still played remarkably well and managed to win the clutch situations, constantly turning the close-fought matchups to their favor. That is a definite sign of a great team and while it might sometimes seem that they are out of it, the bounce back is imminent. You can never count NaVi out. They only lost to mousesports in the stage 2, winning the others 2-1 – with seemingly doing the bare minimum. They did beat fnatic rather comfortably 2-0 in stage 1, winning Ovepass 16-10 and Nuke 16-11.
Fnatic stands at 5th in the world rankings and have had a good run in ESL. They lost only once in stage 2, after OG took a thriller of a match 2-1. Fnatic bounced back by fantastically beating the surging mousesports 2-0 on their way to climbing on top of the table. They have done well against the top teams, beating Astralis, FaZe and NiP 2-1 in ESL Pro League.
Accuscore simulations expect a close game, with NaVi only a slight favorite with 55.8% (-126) probability of winning, leaving 44.2% (+126) to fnatic. It’s very likely that both teams capture one map and fnatic has a chance to upset as well – they are trending up, while NaVi has had some issues in their last two games.
Astralis – mousesports
Tagged as the best team in the world, Astralis had to surrender their world rankings throne last month to NaVi and they have had some problems – albeit expectedly – in adjusting to online gaming. Probably the most professional team in the scene, Astralis has no apparent weaknesses and have been convincing in their last two games, beating OG and FaZe 2-0 with not much sweat. But before that they did lose in stage 2 to fnatic and NaVi, both 2-1, so there’s room for improvement for the Danish pro’s as well. Taking part in limited events, Astralis has last faced mousesports in December 2019, then losing 1-2 at last season’s finals.
The current number four in the world rankings, mousesports has regained some momentum in the EPL and impressed many after comfortably capturing their Stage 1 top spot, losing only once in the process. They’ve continued on the same road in Stage 2, winning NaVi and OG easily 2-0 and getting one over FaZe 2-1. The last round saw mousesports take a surprising tumble against fnatic, who took a well-deserved 2-0 victory. Mousesports is now facing perhaps their biggest challenge of the tournament, but they’ve already proven they can beat Astralis and after the loss to fnatic, they have a chip on their shoulder.
In Accuscore simulations, Astralis is a favorite but not quite as clearly as the odds would indicate. Mousesports has had a great run so far and they are likely to capture at least one map against Astralis, if not the whole game. Accuscore’s simulations indicate Astralis to be 55.3% (-124) favorites with mousesports challenging with 44.7% (+123).
