MLB Analyst Preview: Tigers v Rangers

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Preview (53-64) Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers (56-60)

Projected Pitchers: Justin Verlander (8-7) – 3.97 ERA vs A.J. Griffin (5-3) – 5.40 ERA
Moneyline Odds: Tigers -113, Rangers +103
Total: 10.5

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We've got an AL showdown Monday night between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers, both on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. The Rangers have won two-of-three previous games this season against the Tigers, but head into Monday's matchup as slight home underdogs.

Verlander enters the matchup after giving up just one hit and zero runs in eight innings against the San Diego Padres. The Rangers' bats, though, come into this game with plenty of momentum, winning three of their last four and taking the season series over the Houston Astros.

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data

Vegas has the home Rangers as slight home 'dogs, but AccuScore data actually has Texas winning the majority of games.

With the Rangers winning about 55 percent of sims, AccuScore would have listed them at a -120 or -125 on the money line -- making the +103 very attractive.

Betting Trends
- The Tigers are 2-7 straight up (SU) in their last nine games overall, and on grass.
- The Rangers are 7-1 in Griffin's last eight Tuesday starts.
- The Rangers are 21-7 in Griffin's last 28 starts on grass.
-The Rangers are 10-3 in Griffin's last 13 starts.

Analyst Pick on the Total

Most books in Vegas have the total set at 10 or 10.5, but AccuScore sims actually have that number down at 9 -- indicating a pick on the UNDER.

About 53 percent of sims stay below the total. The UNDER is 7-3-1 in the Tigers' last 11 Tuesday games.

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Rangers vs Marlins - Monday Baseball Analysis

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Date/Time: July 24, 5:05 PM Pacific

Money Line Odds: Marlins +125 odds | Rangers -145 odds
Over Under Total: 11
Pitching Matchup: Adam Conley (2-3, 6.75 ERA) vs. Martin Perez (5-7, 4.72 ERA)

Rangers vs Marlins: Betting Analysis

We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore simulation data are on opposite sides of the money line, and that's exactly the type of situation we have in this matchup.

Whereas the Rangers are home favorites -- with about a 59 percent chance of winning (-145 ML) -- AccuScore sim data actually has the Marlins as slight road favorites. AccuScore sim data would have listed Texas between +110 and +105, suggesting the opposite of value when comparing to the actual odds listed in Vegas.

Miami, though, shows some potential winning over 52 percent of simulated matchups. AccuScore data would have listed them at about -110, making the actual +125 odds fairly attractive.

• The Marlins are 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games on the road.
• The Rangers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
• The Rangers are 2-4 straight up (SU) in their last six vs the Marlins.

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Hot Trend

All signs point to this being a high-scoring contest. Miami is in the bottom third of the league when it comes to defense on the road, giving up about 5 runs per game; Texas, at the same time, is in the top-five in offense at home.

There's a four-star hot trend on the total, with the majority of simulated matchups going OVER.

• The total has gone OVER in four of the Rangers' last six games.

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