Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Date/Time: July 24, 5:05 PM Pacific
Money Line Odds: Marlins +125 odds | Rangers -145 odds
Over Under Total: 11
Pitching Matchup: Adam Conley (2-3, 6.75 ERA) vs. Martin Perez (5-7, 4.72 ERA)
Rangers vs Marlins: Betting Analysis
We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore simulation data are on opposite sides of the money line, and that's exactly the type of situation we have in this matchup.
Whereas the Rangers are home favorites -- with about a 59 percent chance of winning (-145 ML) -- AccuScore sim data actually has the Marlins as slight road favorites. AccuScore sim data would have listed Texas between +110 and +105, suggesting the opposite of value when comparing to the actual odds listed in Vegas.
Miami, though, shows some potential winning over 52 percent of simulated matchups. AccuScore data would have listed them at about -110, making the actual +125 odds fairly attractive.
• The Marlins are 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games on the road.
• The Rangers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
• The Rangers are 2-4 straight up (SU) in their last six vs the Marlins.
All of Today's AccuScore Baseball Picks
All signs point to this being a high-scoring contest. Miami is in the bottom third of the league when it comes to defense on the road, giving up about 5 runs per game; Texas, at the same time, is in the top-five in offense at home.
There's a four-star hot trend on the total, with the majority of simulated matchups going OVER.
• The total has gone OVER in four of the Rangers' last six games.
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