Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Preview (53-64) Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers (56-60)

Projected Pitchers: Justin Verlander (8-7) – 3.97 ERA vs A.J. Griffin (5-3) – 5.40 ERA
Moneyline Odds: Tigers -113, Rangers +103
Total: 10.5

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We've got an AL showdown Monday night between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers, both on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. The Rangers have won two-of-three previous games this season against the Tigers, but head into Monday's matchup as slight home underdogs.

Verlander enters the matchup after giving up just one hit and zero runs in eight innings against the San Diego Padres. The Rangers' bats, though, come into this game with plenty of momentum, winning three of their last four and taking the season series over the Houston Astros.

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data

Vegas has the home Rangers as slight home 'dogs, but AccuScore data actually has Texas winning the majority of games.

With the Rangers winning about 55 percent of sims, AccuScore would have listed them at a -120 or -125 on the money line -- making the +103 very attractive.

Betting Trends
- The Tigers are 2-7 straight up (SU) in their last nine games overall, and on grass.
- The Rangers are 7-1 in Griffin's last eight Tuesday starts.
- The Rangers are 21-7 in Griffin's last 28 starts on grass.
-The Rangers are 10-3 in Griffin's last 13 starts.

Analyst Pick on the Total

Most books in Vegas have the total set at 10 or 10.5, but AccuScore sims actually have that number down at 9 -- indicating a pick on the UNDER.

About 53 percent of sims stay below the total. The UNDER is 7-3-1 in the Tigers' last 11 Tuesday games.

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