Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland A's Trend

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Baseball action continues as we hit hump day with 15 games on the MLB slate. We're always interested when Vegas odds differ from AccuScore simulation data and there are multiple games like that today.

Let's take a closer look at one such matchup.

All of Today's AccuScore Baseball Picks (Includes free full forecast of the Cubs vs Braves)

Tampa Bay @ Oakland

Jacob Faria takes the mound for the Rays, matched up across from the A's Sonny Gray -- who just might be pitching his last start with Oakland. Faria gets the start Wednesday with a chance to get a 3-0 sweep of Oakland this week.

Why are we interested in this matchup? Vegas odds indicate the A's as slight favorites; our data, however, suggests a pick on the road 'dogs.

The Lean Towards Faria -- Simply put, he's been fantastic this season with an ERA of 2.00 and a WHIP of 0.98. With seven quality starts already this season, it's clear that he's figured out how to stump batters. He's projected to pitch close to seven winnings with an ERA of 2.5 Wednesday.

Value Pick: Whereas the odds indicate Tampa Bay as the underdog, our data has them winning over 55 percent of simulated matchups. A quality start by Faria increases the Rays' winning probability from 55 percent to 72 percent.

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OVER/UNDER Betting Trend

The UNDER is 8-2 in Oakland's last 10 games after a loss. They came up short 4-3 on Tuesday vs TB.

Yankees vs Rays: MLB Analysis

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

We've got a fun one on deck Thursday as Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays head to Yankee Stadium to face CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees. New York's a slight home favorite to win the matchup (-105) with the total at 8.5.

Pitching Matchup

Archer's been fairly pedestrian this season, entering Thursday's matchup with an ERA of 3.77 and a 7-6 record. Good news for the Rays, though, is the fact that their bullpen is in the top third of the league with an overall ERA of 4.1. They've given up their fair share of bombs -- ranking No. 19 with 118 home runs -- to go along with an average of 8.4 hits per nine innings.

Sabathia, with his 9-3 record and an ERA of 3.44, continues to shine when given the chance. He is 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA in his last three starts. Fun fact - Sabathia has allowed one run in 10 innings against the Rays this season. Teams are hitting just .208 against the Yankees bullpen. New York's bullpen is even better than Tampa Bay's, ranking No. 6 in the league in team ERA at 3.86.

All of AccuScore Expert Baseball Picks

Comparing the Numbers

Tampa Bay is 24-26 on the road, with 26 of the 50 games going OVER the total, 22 staying UNDER, and two pushes. The Rays -- on average -- score 4.6 runs per game and give up 4.1.

New York is 27-17 at home this season, with 25 of the 44 games going OVER, 18 staying UNDER, and one push. The Yankees are averaging approximately 5.3 runs per game while giving up 3.9.

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Vegas Odds vs AccuScore

While Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites, AccuScore data ups that winning probability up to 61 percent. AccuScore sim data would have actually listed New York at a -155 on the money line, making the -105 they opened at fairly attractive.

At the time of publication, New York is hovering between -115 and -120 on the money line in most books in Vegas.