Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Baseball action continues as we hit hump day with 15 games on the MLB slate. We're always interested when Vegas odds differ from AccuScore simulation data and there are multiple games like that today.

Let's take a closer look at one such matchup.

All of Today's AccuScore Baseball Picks (Includes free full forecast of the Cubs vs Braves)

Tampa Bay @ Oakland

Jacob Faria takes the mound for the Rays, matched up across from the A's Sonny Gray -- who just might be pitching his last start with Oakland. Faria gets the start Wednesday with a chance to get a 3-0 sweep of Oakland this week.

Why are we interested in this matchup? Vegas odds indicate the A's as slight favorites; our data, however, suggests a pick on the road 'dogs.

The Lean Towards Faria -- Simply put, he's been fantastic this season with an ERA of 2.00 and a WHIP of 0.98. With seven quality starts already this season, it's clear that he's figured out how to stump batters. He's projected to pitch close to seven winnings with an ERA of 2.5 Wednesday.

Value Pick: Whereas the odds indicate Tampa Bay as the underdog, our data has them winning over 55 percent of simulated matchups. A quality start by Faria increases the Rays' winning probability from 55 percent to 72 percent.

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OVER/UNDER Betting Trend

The UNDER is 8-2 in Oakland's last 10 games after a loss. They came up short 4-3 on Tuesday vs TB.

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