Premier League Expert Analysis: Arsenal vs Manchester City

Arsenal - Manchester City

Thursday evening offers football fanatics a massive fixture in the Premier League with Arsenal hosting league leading Manchester City. Still going strong (pun intended) with Arsene Wenger at helm, Arsenal is sixth in the EPL, chasing the top-4 by 10 points and a game in hand. Manchester City on top has taken a 13-point lead over their rivals United, with also this game in hand.

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Arsenal has once again been the letdown of the season, as they’ve not managed to put up a serious challenge against the top teams. In addition, they’ve recently lost to Swansea and Bournemouth, while drawing with the likes of WBA and West Ham. Safe to say, “Wenger Out” movement has never been stronger – despite the acquisitions of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan in exchange for Alexis Sanchez.

Arsenal has won 13 and lost eight games, while drawing six. At home they’ve been a bit better, 3^rd in Premier League actually. They’ve only lost once in Emirates, winning 10 of 13 and gathering 32 points. The Gunners have scored on average 2.77 goals at home, quite a contrast to abysmal record of 1.07 on the road. Defensively they’ve been solid at home as well, allowing only 1.08 goals.

Manchester City has done what was expected of them and Pep Guardiola has built a team that plays to its strengths. Which seems to be everything on the pitch. City has lost one game in the EPL all season, when Liverpool managed a 4-3 victory at Anfield midway through January.

Otherwise City’s spotless record is ruined by road draws with Burnley and Crystal Palace, but with 23 wins in 27 games they’re sitting far ahead on the top of the league. City is also a great away team, leading the league with 10-2-1 record on the road. They’ve scored 2.23 goals on average and allowed only 0.77 on their road games. The approach has been way more defensive on the road: at home City has scored 3.57 while allowing the similar 0.71 goals per game.

The teams met only a couple of days ago in Carabao Cup final on Wembley. Manchester City took the spoils with a confident performance 0-3 and left plenty of Arsenal fans fuming. City only shot three times on goal and scored three goals, yet none can be blamed on the Arsenal keeper. City completely outplayed Arsenal and it remains to be seen if the tables have turned come Thursday evening.

Both teams have a congested schedule ahead, as they’re playing another EPL game on Sunday and then in continental competition midweek: City hosts Basel after 0-4 victory in UCL on Wednesday and Arsenal travels to Milan for 1^st leg of European League 2^nd knockout stage for Thursday. However, it’s unlikely we see any unnecessary rotation in a top tier matchup like this.

Accuscore’s Premier League Side Value picks have made fantastic profits once again this season, going 150-306 with a profit of +7382, with 100 unit even stakes!You can find all the football betting record archives and trends HERE

Accuscore Simulations

Manchester City comes out as clear favorites for their visit at the Emirates. In simulations, City wins with 63.9% probability, cementing their lead in the EPL. The game ends in a draw with 20.6% probability, while Arsenal is given only 15.6% chance to take all the three points at home. The value still lies with Manchester City, but the lines are moving fast so be quick to catch over 7% side value for the visitors!

We are likely to see some attacking football as Manchester City is likely to go for the jugular after gaining the upper hand in the previous game. In simulations the visitors score 2.59 goals on average and the home team Arsenal is likely to score as well, averaging 1.27 per simulations. Total is likely to go as high as 3.86 – despite both team’s impressive defensive records.

The most likely players to score a goal are the big guns up front, Sergio Agüero for City and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for Arsenal. Agüero scores with a 59% likelihood while Aubameyang finds the net with 40% chance. City’s support is strong with Raheem Sterling (36.76%), Leroy Sane (25.74%) and Kevin De Bruyne (24.62%). Arsenal somewhat lacks in that department, with only Aaron Ramsey closing in on 20% with 17.72 percent probability to score.

Expert Picks

As the noose tightens around Arsenal’s neck, City are playing with no real pressure and took the minor domestic cup with ease just a couple of days ago ahead of their hosts. No matter how you look at this game, City is the most likely winner here. Check the best odds to play from oddsportal.com or similar!

• Manchester City to win, 63.9 % - take the home win with odds of 1.57 | -177 or better
• Over 3.0 goals, 54% - take over 3.0 goals with odds of 1.86 | -116
• Agüero to score.59% - odds of 1.70 | -143
• Aubameyang to score,40% - odds of 2.5 | +150

More Accuscore analysis, expert picks and predictions available ataccuscore.eu!

Soccer Picks +$35k Profit This Season!

Written by AccuScore Staff
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Soccer Profits Sky High

Since start of the soccer season in Europe Accuscore predictions have been very accurate. By betting every game with over 20% value compared to bookmakers odds, our customers have collected over 21,000 dollars profit with an assumed 100 dollar bet . In practice, this means about 400% ROI as there is usually 4000-5000 invested in the games during the weekends.

However, it's not just side value bets providing the profit. Total goals have been good way to cash in. With another 100 bucks bet per game, our customers have end up with over 14,000 in pure profit this season.

This total profit of over $35k is already more than last season, when we recorded a strong posting of 33,500 profit from side value and total bets during the season! If you're not betting soccer using AccuScore yet...um, why not?

Soccer Profits Come from the Mediterranean

During the last few weeks the best performing league has been Serie A. With side value bets, the total profit assuming 100 dollar bets was +1270 dollars. Bundesliga and Premiership in England were also performing steadily, as those have been doing since start of the season. Profits from Bundesliga were +514 and from EPL +481 with the same bet size as in Serie A. Since the start of the season, our customers that have bet the games over 20% side value in Serie A and EPL have recorded +6571 and +6263 dollars profits, respectively.

While totals have not been as profitable as side value bets, mainly due to poor accuracy in Liga MX total goal predictions, there have been bright spots in Over/Under betting. Our customers who bet total markets in English Championship games received over 400 profit during last few weeks from those games. Ligue 1 in France has been another profitable league to bet totals in recent games.

As the weekend is full of soccer action around the world, Here are some major trends to keep in mind - Assumes 100 USD bet size:

Since start of the season:
Side value over 20%: +21231
Totals: +14121

From 12th February to 8th of March
-Side value over 20%: +1155
-Totals: -301

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Note: Membership includes ALL sports, including forecasts, odds analysis and goal scoring probabilities for every match in the Premier League, Championship, League One, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, Liga MX, MLS and League 2.

Top Betting Trends: NHL & Soccer

Written by AccuScore Staff
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Top Trends: NHL and Soccer Start 2018 Strong

The NHL regular season has just crossed mid-season mark, and Accuscore's betting results have continued steadily returning profits when betting on game winners via money line and Side value bets. When betting every single game for 100 dollars, you would have pocketed over 1700 from side value bets and just about the same amount from money line bets since start of the 2017-18 season.

HOT TRENDS: NHL
LA Kings and the Columbus Blue Jackets home games have been the most profitable ones when finding side value. Both have recorder over 800 profit out of 22 and 23 games respectively. In money line betting best teams have been the Winnipeg Jets home games and St. Louis Blues on the road. By betting all these games you have ended up over 2000 profit since start of the season.

One team that has been profitable cross all betting markets: Side value, money line and totals, is the Buffalo Sabres. Accuscore projected that the Sabres have inflated value in the betting lines this year, and that has been the case thus far this season.

If you are interested in ice hockey as a key betting sport, you must take a closer look at Finnish ice hockey league, too - Liiga. Since start of the season, betting totals have been one of the most profitable market across all sports and leagues. By betting 100 dollars to every 500+ games, you have collected over 8200 profit from these bets. And as there are only maximum 8 games per day, you don’t need break your bank to start winning.

All of today's NHL picks: NHL picks
All of today's Liiga Picks:LIIGA picks

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Hot Soccer Trends
Some of the soccer leagues took a break during the holidays, but there were still plenty of good games to bet. Since the start of the major soccer leagues in August, Accuscore predictions have brought more than generous return for our subscribers. By betting standard 100 dollars for every side value bet over 20% and every single totals bet from the Premier League, Championship, LaLiga, SerieA, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Liga MX, MLS + UK League 1 and 2 (From November onward), you would have collected hefty profit of 24,800 dollars!

If you think that you would need tens of thousands bankroll to execute this, that is not needed. Actually due to steady upward results and games split into multiple days, you could start profitable soccer betting with few thousand and watch the wallet bulk up.

When looking at league level, LaLiga and SerieA have generated over 6000 profit each by totals and 20%+ side value bets. EPL has performed better when betting each and every side value bet. That has resulted so far profit of +5280. Since our last Trends update a couple weeks ago, all these leagues have generated profit. EPL over 200, but SerieA and LaLiga around 800 each.

It is interesting to see that betting totals in all leagues have been profitable week after week. There is only one two week period when this market was not on profit since start of the 2016-2017 season. During this season it has been profitable between every period we have monitored it.

All EPL picks: Premier League Picks
Spain's Top Picks: La Liga Picks
Italy's Top picks: Serie A Picks
Germany's Top picks: Bundesliga Picks

Betting totals looks like good way of making steady money in some ice hockey leagues, soccer, NBA as well as NFL, where Accuscore predictions have brought 1680 dollars profit with one hundred dollars bets in every game during this season