2018 NHL Playoffs Projections

Written by AccuScore Staff
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2018 NHL Playoffs Projections & Analysis

At the start of the season, AccuScore predicted 8 teams in each conferences would reach the playoffs, so let’s take a look how season has progressed so far and AccuScore's projections of the final stretch of the regular season.

When comparing the Eastern Conference predictions to current standings, six teams predicted to reach playoffs are currently within the top 8: Tampa Bay, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Washington, Philadelphia and Columbus. With a strong start to the season, New Jersey surprised the projections. Even though they are currently sitting on the edge, it looks like they will make the playoffs this year.

Boston has discovered the form it had a few years ago. The Bruins are cruising to the playoffs and are prepared for a long run in the playoffs. These two teams were not projected to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season, but right now, the season simulations show them as being Stanley Cup Finals contenders.

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In the Western Conference, the season has been a bit more unpredictable with high flying teams from a year ago like the Edmonton Oilers and Chicago Blackhawks are currently on the wrong side of the playoffs line. In the predictions before the season five out of eight teams predicted to reach playoffs are currently going to the postseason: Nashville, Winnipeg, San Jose, Anaheim and Dallas.

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Los Angeles and Minnesota are current playoffs teams, which isn't a shock to the system because they were both predicted to be in the playoffs battle before the season. However, the Las Vegas Golden Knights have played beyond any expectations. They are almost sure winners of their division and with the way they have played this season, success during the postseason is not out of the question.

Season simulations show that all 8 teams currently in line for the postseason will continue to the playoffs. The toughest competition will be between the Los Angeles Kings (65% probability to reach playoffs) and the Colorado Avalanche (38% probability to reach playoffs). More detailed article about the playoffs probabilities can be found here.

Accuscore's NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs 2019/2020 Second Round

Predictions and Bracket

The first round of the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs provided huge entertainment and a couple of surprises as well. Reigning champions St. Louis Blues crashed out against the energetic Vancouver Canucks, while the champions a year previous, Washington Capitals were outdone by New York Islanders, coached by their title-winning centurion Barry Trotz. Otherwise, the favorites were the stronger suits as expected.

In the West, Vegas and Colorado dominated their series against Chicago and Arizona respectively and went on to take an easy 4-1 series victory. In the East, the same goes with Boston Bruins against Carolina and Tampa Bay against Columbus where the favorites ran away after slow starts with impressive five-game-series. Dallas Stars had to go to the sixth issue before Calgary Flames went down and the brave Montreal Canadians kept Philadelphia Flyers on their toes to the sixth as well – but eventually it was 6/8 favorites heading to the second round.

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The second round games starting at a full throttle, Colorado Avalanche kicked-off their second round series against Dallas Stars already. Still being the biggest favorites – if only marginally this time, compared to the pre-playoffs predictions – Avalanche were handed a massive blow in game one: not only did the lose 3-5, but their no.1 goalkeeper Philipp Grubauer was injured and Pavel Francouz took his place. The injury somewhat hinders Avalanche’s chances but they are still likely to pave their way to the Stanley Cup finals. However, it might be worth following the goaltending situation when placign the smart bets in Avalanche vs Stars series.

Here’s how the rest of the playoffs play out, according to the simulations.

Click to enlarge in a new tab

As the simulations indicate, we are expecting extremely close and even fought matchups for the rest of the playoffs. While the Avalanche is still narrow favorites, they are already in a pickle against Dallas and Vegas will prove likely prove even a tougher challenge, assuming they’ll overcome the dark horses Vancouver. If the West is mostly even keel, the same goes for the Eastern teams. There’s barely any margin for the favorites in the seven game series and only a couple of percentages separate the winner and the loser – meaning that it comes down to a coin flip.

With the available odds, there’s barely any value left. Accuscore’s simulations tag Colorado still the favorites, with around 15% probability of capturing the Cup. The odds of +595 offer tiny value, but it is slim pickings for all the other teams.

Available odds for Stanley Cup winner

Vegas Golden Knights +330

Tampa Bay Lightning +450

Boston Bruins +550

Colorado Avalanche +595

Dallas Stars +600

Philadelphia Flyers +610

New York Islanders +900

Vancouver Canucks +1400

Accuscore’s NHL 2018/2019 Season Preview and Predictions

The winter is coming and so is the brand new NHL season. We’re looking at another 1271 regular season games, starting from tonight and lasting until early April 2019. There’s been some major movements in the league, but the strong teams are still strong and the weak are still weak – or are they?

The summer was riddled with big name transactions, as John Tavares finally quit New York and headed back home to Toronto. Ottawa’s turmoil continued as arguably the best defender in the league, Erik Karlsson has left the Canadian capital for what can only be described as a ridiculous return from San Jose Sharks.

Last season finally saw Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals hoist the Stanley Cup – and it’s been a summer of celebration for the Caps fans and players alike, as we’ve witnessed through various channels over the internet. Will the Capitals recover from the hangover to challenge once again?

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With the training camps over and rosters set for the opening night, Accuscore’s supercomputer has worked its magic once again and pre-determined the outcome of the NHL regular season 2018/2019 by simulating each and every game for 10 000 times.

This is how the regular season standings are most likely to look after it’s all done and dusted on April 6^th 2019:

Accuscore’s Regular Season Outright Total Picks

In the Western Conference there’re not a lot of surprises. According to the simulations, both Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames manage to gather three more wins than the Vegas line would suggest. The line is rather high for the Jets at 106.5, but considering they already posted 114 points last season, it’s worth a shot. Flames on the other hand missed playoffs last season with a meager 84 points, but they’re a stronger group this time around and likely to make the playoffs. The line of 93.5 means that if they’re in the battle for the playoffs, it should be a piece of cake.

The other end of the table sees Colorado Avalanche collapsing again far out of the playoff position. There are several question marks over the team, especially depth-wise but their young core might also surprise. Even if Accuscore’s numbers indicate they only reach 79 points, the line of 90.5 is a tad too low to go for the under – in case they are able to hang in for the playoff battle, there could be some moves to further enhance their chances.

In the Eastern Conference the top looks very familiar and the bottom is quite as expected as well. Tampa Bay ended up with 113 points last season, and they’re not any less convincing this time around. Gathering more points than last season from their weakened Eastern Conference bottom feeders should not be a problem and the line of 107.5 points seems reachable. At the other end of the queue, there’s New Jersey Devils who are in a somewhat problematic rebuilding phase. Superstar Tayler Hall is likely to win a couple of games for his team, but otherwise the young core is unlikely to be able to push for playoffs and the line of 91.5 is a tad high. To add insult to injury, no.1 goalkeeper Cory Schneider is out for indefinite amount of time to start the season. Sorry Devils, this is not your season yet.

Western Conference Picks

Winnipeg Jets 106.5 points: OVER

Calgary Flames 93.5 points: OVER

 

Eastern Conference Picks

Tampa Bay Lightning 107.5 points: OVER

New Jersey Devils 91.5 points: UNDER

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NHL PREVIEWS AUGUST 20TH

NHL Action Tonight

New York Islanders vs Washington Capitals

The Islanders had a decent shot at sweeping the Capitals in the 2019-20 Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round during Game 4, but they couldn’t take advantage of their chances and surrendered a 1-0 lead to lose by a 3-1 score. However, New York still owns a healthy 3-1 lead in the series and there would have to be a miracle for them to be eliminated by the Capitals. Washington, however, looked massively improved in Game 4 and Alex Ovechkin is coming off a two-goal performance, meaning the Islanders could be bound to deal against one of the best scoring threats in league history once again. The Islanders were outshot 29-26 in Game 4, and the trend might continue given the fact Washington must take risks offensively -- there’s no tomorrow for them since they’re down 3-1 in the series. Semyon Varlamov (Islanders) and Braden Holtby (Capitals) will start between the posts once again.

 

Dallas Stars vs Calgary Flames

The Stars’ calling card ahead of the 2019-20 NHL Playoffs was their defense and, even though they struggled at first in their first-round series against the Flames, they changed that in Game 5. Dallas limited Calgary to just one goal and 29 shots while earning a huge 2-1 win that lifted them to a 3-2 lead in the series. Dallas recorded 32 shots in Game 5 and, even though their offense doesn’t really stand out, it must be noted that the Stars have outshot the Flames in each of the last four games of the series, including a 62-shot rampage in Game 4 where they found the back of the net five times. Dallas has enough firepower to get past the Flames and the recent tendencies might suggest the Flames won’t last long in the playoffs, especially if star winger Keith Tkachuk is unable to play in Game 6. The Stars are likely to start Anton Khudobin once again, while the Flames will give Cam Talbot the starting nod.

 

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NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs 2019 - Bracket and Predictions

Accuscore's 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

It's playoff time in the NHL, which means Accuscore's bracket and predictions all the way until the Stanley Cup Finals is decided. For all the picks and predictions during the NHL Playoffs 2019, JOIN ACCUSCORE NOW by using code "NHL25" for 25% off the membership price!

Accuscore's NHL Playoffs 2019 Bracket

After simulating every NHL Playoffs 2019 game for 10 000 times, Accuscore has come up with the most likely scenario from the first face-off to the hoisting of the Stanley Cup and this is how it looks like: click to enlarge in a new tab

Accuscore's NHL Playoffs 2019 Predictions

There are a couple of surprises is the Accuscore NHL Playoffs 2019 simulations. Depending on your bookmaker, you might find different sorts of betting options and as usual we'll provide the predictions with our odds. You can then make the choice according to your options. Here are the best value picks based on the pre-playoffs predictions as compared to available odds:

Toronto Maple Leafs to beat Boston Bruins

Widely regarded as a piece of cake for the Bruins, Accuscore's simulations are determined it'll go the other way. The teams faced off last year in the same setting and Toronto has only gotten better since then. Boston is a strong, hardened team, but Mike Babcock and his young troops are in for a fight and are playing with a chip on their shoulder from last year's narrow 4-3 defeat. Boston did win three of four regular season matchups, so they've got a small edge from past meetings. However, with the odds set clearly against the Maple Leafs, the young guns are certainly worth a shot. Take Toronto to progress with odds of -150 | 1.67 or better!

Washington Capitals to finish off Carolina Hurricanes

The reigning champions had their usual issues during the regular season and it can be questioned how much hunger the team has left after finally entering the winners circle. However, the team is top notch all over, with enormous amount of playoffs experience - and now the Capitals know what it takes to go all the way. Carolina Hurricanes has been an inspiring sparkle all season, but the team is inexperienced and not quite there yet when it comes to killing of even matched games. Their time will come, for sure, but it's too early for now. Take Washington Capitals with the odds of -210 | 1.48 or better!

Western Conference regular season winners Calgary Flames over Colorado Avalanche

The Flames were in flames most of the season, led by suberb performances by Norris-candidate Mike Giordano and red-hot goalkeeper David Rittich. The team has been built with patience and it's finally coming to fruition after some difficult times. Flames boasts top quality offensive talent, a deep secondary scoring unit and excellent defensive core in addition to sublime goaltending. The group is inexperienced in the playoffs, but it should not prove to be a problem in the first round - especially against equally inexperienced Colorado Avalanche, who are quite frankly not even close to Flames regarding quality down the line. Their top line is fantastic, but not quite enough to challenge the Flames this time around. Take the Flames to continute from the pair with odds of -256 | 1.39 or better!

Keep an eye out for the next edition of Accuscore's NHL Playoffs 2019 predictions after the 1st round! We'll review the previous picks and provide an updated bracket and predictions then. And remember, in order to gain access to all NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs picks and predictions, SIGN UP NOW with a code "NHL25" in order to receive 25% off of the membership price!