• Accuscore Expert Analyst Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators

    NHL on Wednesday: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators

    In the Eastern Conference lopsided matchup the Senators host Lightning in Ottawa. The Sens are at the bottom of the conference right above dead last Buffalo, while Tampa Bay is going strong at the top of the East.

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    Last season’s conference finalists are in deep crisis. The owner has stated they’re likely to cut salaries by more than 10M$, which means everyone is for sale. Things are not that much better on the ice. Only 51 points in 58 games means the Senators are effectively out of the playoffs already, adding to the pressure of cutting costs. They’ve only won two games in regulation from the past 15. However, at home they’ve been remarkably better, winning five straight – albeit three in overtime or shootout. When the season is practically over for the Senators, it remains to be seen how much fight they still have in them in this dire situation.

    Accuscore’s record in picking Tampa Bay games on the road is 20-13 with a profit of +406 for the season and picking Tampa Bay games against teams under .500 is 18-8 with a profit of +343.

    Conference leading Tampa Bay have had their problems after almost invincible beginning to the season, but they’ve managed to put up a decent sequence in the past 10 games, with six wins and four losses. Their bad stretch included five losses in seven games. While Lightning still doesn’t look as good as they did to start the season, they’ve managed to score aplenty and lead the conference in goals scored.

    Lightning has scored a hefty 3.58 goals per game overall and 3.45 on the road. Senators have allowed 3.52 overall and 3.5 at home. Tampa Bay’s defense has been decent on the road, allowing 2.66 while Ottawa’s offense has been abysmal at home, only scoring 2.25 goals on average. The visitors have a huge edge in quality of roster and Ottawa is also playing the second game of back-to-backs after featuring in Chicago tonight. Returning home after road trip is never easy and Tampa Bay are huge favorites in this one.

    Accuscore’s simulations

    In Accuscore simulations Tampa Bay wins 60.5% of the games. The hosts remain at 39.5%. There’s good value in picking Tampa Bay while the odds are still somewhat under the 60%. The best value is found in 3-way though, with Tampa Bay 52% favorites to win it in regulation and the odds offer in the region of 48%.

    The game is rather high-scoring in simulations, with an average of 6.5 goals scored. The hosts manage to put 3.0 past Andrey Vasilevskiy, led by Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman. The visitors however do one better and score on average 3.5 goals past Craig Anderson. Lightning’s most likely scorers feature Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and this season’s breakthrough player Yanni Gourde.

    Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov scores a goal with 41.7% likelihood and at least one point with 68.7% probability. Ottawa’s Mark Stone is the most likely goal scorer for his team with 31% and Erik Karlsson is the most likely to pick up at least one point with 53% probability.

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    Analyst Picks

    Can’t look past the Lightning here as Ottawa is in all kinds of trouble on and off the ice. The offense of the visitors is overwhelming compared to the hosting defense, so it’s likely to be a goals galore as well.

    • There’s excellent value in Tampa Bay ML win, which should be taken with odds of -153 | 1.65
    • 3-way bet for Tampa Bayworks even better with odds better than -104 | 1.96
    • The total goes over 5.5 in 60.3 % of the simulations, so take the over with odds of -151 | 1.66
  • Accuscore Impact Analysis - NHL Trade Deadline Splashes 2018/2019

    This season the NHL trade deadline on February 25th finally saw some big fish change their habitats, whereas previously it’s been just about as interesting as watching grass grow. Several teams pulled the trigger on anticipated headline deals, while some certain trade baits were left untouched. We are of course interested on how these decisions affect the outcomes of coming regular season games and more importantly, the playoffs.

    By running Accuscore’s simulations before and after the deadline trades – or actually a bit before as some decisive moves were already made previous week, we can determine the impact these changes have had on the teams, both in the short and the long run.

    Overall the changes definitely made a couple of teams stronger and of course then left a couple of stragglers weaker. Interestingly though, with less than 20 games left in the regular season, the impact on the predicted point totals changed only very slightly. This is probably due to the fact that teams growing stronger were already comparatively strong and most of the strong teams got better – and respectively the bad teams were already bad. Let’s see what effect the trades have had on some of the contenders and their likely playoff partners.

    Trade deadline winners

    Columbus Blue Jackets

    Not only did the Blue Jackets finally add a legitimate presence at the centre in Ottawa’s Matt Duchene and necessary depth in mid-6 wing in Ryan Dzingel, but they managed to hold on to talisman Artemi Panarin and no.1 goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. Addition of hard-nosed defenseman Adam McQuaid and backup keeper Keith Kinkaid added some icing to the cake. With the moves, Columbus grew significantly stronger in offense and more reliable in the back. More notably, the trades allow moving the current players to their more suitable roles, namely a step or two down the hierarchy.

    Pre-DL: to make playoffs 83%, to win division 15%, point total 94

    Post-DL: to make playoffs 97%, to win division 20%, point total 98


    Vegas Golden Knights

    Arguably the best player and probably one of the most undervalued two-way forwards in the game, Mark Stone left Ottawa for the Golden Knights. One of the most constant performers in struggling Senators, Stone brings a truckload of offensive talent to Vegas – something the team has been lacking. Stone instantly became Golden Knights best scorer with almost 20-point margin with his 62 points in 59 games. Rarely has an impact of a single addition been as big as Stone’s is for Vegas. And they know it, since instantly after the trade the former Senator signed an 8-year $76M contract, making him the highest paid Golden Knight in history.

    Pre-DL: to make playoffs 71%, to win division 0.03%, point total 88

    Post-DL: to make playoffs 84%, to win division 0.10%, point total 91


    Nashville Predators

    Boasting an already strong team, Nashville Predators upgraded a couple of key positions albeit not growing stronger depth-wise. Kevin Fiala and Ryan Hartmann were sent away and in return the Predators acquired Mikael Granlund and Wayne Simmonds. While Granlund provides some much needed talent in the offensive end with his hockey IQ and passing ability, Simmonds brings in another tough net-front presence which will be much needed in the post-season. Although Simmonds has disappointed this season, change of scenery might spark a little life on the big forward. Bottom-6 veteran centerman Brian Boyle joined already earlier, providing some depth to the offence. Fiala and Hartmann were solid roster players, but it seems their replacements add some value to Pred’s Stanley Cup run.

    While the regular season’s predictions improved only marginally for the Predators after trade deadline, the impact on probabilities to win a playoff series increased with almost 5% against their Western Conference rivals – except for the Jets.

    Winnipeg Jets

    Also considered one of the frontrunners for Stanley Cup in the western conference, Jets did what they did last season: acquired a center for top-6. Last year it was Paul Stastny, now in Vegas and this year it is Ranger’s Kevin Hayes, a big body as is Jets’ configuration with some excellent prowess in both ends of the ice. He’s been a solid +40 point scorer in more or less chaotic Rangers team and is expected to jump in to help the likes of Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers to score the goals. Jets also bolstered their D with Panthers’ Bogdan Kiselevich, who adds depth to injury ridden defensive core missing Josh Morrissey and Dustin Byfuglien. Buffalo’s defender Nathan Beaulieu came in as a reclamation project after failing to make an impact in his two seasons and just might get a chance in the coming weeks. Matt Hendricks came in as a veteran presence to the dressing room and will probably spend a lot of time as a healthy scratch mentoring the youngster and filling in the 4th line if necessary.

    Like with Predators, Jets’ predictions for regular season improve only slightly due to the additions. And as is with the Predators, Jets’ chances of winning a playoff series improved closer to 4% - except against the Predators.

    No-impact exchanges

    Several teams consider contenders made some roster changes which have no impact according to the simulations. Some teams needed to shake it up without really improving that much and some teams preferred more suitable players for different role – be as it may, the following trades provided some headlines but didn’t affect or had a marginal effect on Accuscore’s regular season predictions and the playoffs-scenarios.

    Washington Capitals acquired defenseman Nick Jensen from Detroit Red Wings in exchange to Madison Bowey. While Jensen is a definite upgrade to Bowey as of now, the impact in solid Capitals defence is minimal at best. Carl Hagelin’s arrival from LA Kings should provide some depth in offense, but his numbers this season and last season are so poor his impact is marginal as well.

    Pittsburgh Penguins GM Jim Rutherford continued his shuffling of the deck at the deadline. Already having sent out Carl Hagelin to LA for Tanner Pearson, Pearson was now exchanged for hard-nosed bruiser of a defender Erik Gudbranson of Vancouver. Former 3rd overall pick never filled his potential and is unlikely to have a big impact on Penguins hunt for the Cup, especially since exactly similar calibre Jamie Oleksiak was let go earlier. Coming in already before the deadline were also Florida’s Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann while Derick Brassard and Riley Sheahan went the other way. The moves balance out overall and the impact is literally non-existent.

    Dallas Stars would’ve probably been in the winner side, but Mats Zuccarello’s injury in his first appearance pushed the Stars down a bit – especially with most of the other western contenders growing stronger. Additions of Andrew Cogliano and Jamie Oleksiak already in January and Ben Lovejoy joining in exchange to Connor Carrick are only fringe moves, which are not showing up on simulations. Healthy Zuccarello has a small impact, but in the playoffs Stars did not get remarkably better.

    Toronto made their move already in January, acquiring Jake Muzzin to bolster the defence. Maple Leafs boast such an impressive team that Muzzin addition had no significant impact to their expected results. The same goes for San Jose Sharks, who added forward Gustav Nyquist from Detroit Red Wings. Already having a playoff percentage of 100% and point total prediction at 104, Nyquist makes no difference in Accuscore simulations.

    Colorado Avalanche added centerman Derick Brassard, now with his 3rd team of the season. His numbers are remarkably poor and there’s only a marginal impact on Colorado’s probabilities.

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  • Accuscore's NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs 2019/2020 Second Round

    Predictions and Bracket

    The first round of the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs provided huge entertainment and a couple of surprises as well. Reigning champions St. Louis Blues crashed out against the energetic Vancouver Canucks, while the champions a year previous, Washington Capitals were outdone by New York Islanders, coached by their title-winning centurion Barry Trotz. Otherwise, the favorites were the stronger suits as expected.

    In the West, Vegas and Colorado dominated their series against Chicago and Arizona respectively and went on to take an easy 4-1 series victory. In the East, the same goes with Boston Bruins against Carolina and Tampa Bay against Columbus where the favorites ran away after slow starts with impressive five-game-series. Dallas Stars had to go to the sixth issue before Calgary Flames went down and the brave Montreal Canadians kept Philadelphia Flyers on their toes to the sixth as well – but eventually it was 6/8 favorites heading to the second round.

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    The second round games starting at a full throttle, Colorado Avalanche kicked-off their second round series against Dallas Stars already. Still being the biggest favorites – if only marginally this time, compared to the pre-playoffs predictions – Avalanche were handed a massive blow in game one: not only did the lose 3-5, but their no.1 goalkeeper Philipp Grubauer was injured and Pavel Francouz took his place. The injury somewhat hinders Avalanche’s chances but they are still likely to pave their way to the Stanley Cup finals. However, it might be worth following the goaltending situation when placign the smart bets in Avalanche vs Stars series.

    Here’s how the rest of the playoffs play out, according to the simulations.

    Click to enlarge in a new tabAccuscore's Stanley Cup Playoffs 2019/2020 Bracket and Prediction

    As the simulations indicate, we are expecting extremely close and even fought matchups for the rest of the playoffs. While the Avalanche is still narrow favorites, they are already in a pickle against Dallas and Vegas will prove likely prove even a tougher challenge, assuming they’ll overcome the dark horses Vancouver. If the West is mostly even keel, the same goes for the Eastern teams. There’s barely any margin for the favorites in the seven game series and only a couple of percentages separate the winner and the loser – meaning that it comes down to a coin flip.

    With the available odds, there’s barely any value left. Accuscore’s simulations tag Colorado still the favorites, with around 15% probability of capturing the Cup. The odds of +595 offer tiny value, but it is slim pickings for all the other teams.

    Available odds for Stanley Cup winner

    Vegas Golden Knights +330

    Tampa Bay Lightning +450

    Boston Bruins +550

    Colorado Avalanche +595

    Dallas Stars +600

    Philadelphia Flyers +610

    New York Islanders +900

    Vancouver Canucks +1400

  • Accuscore's NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs 2020 Preview and Predictions

    Let's get ready to rumble in NHL playoffs

    Ice hockey in August? Why not?! The NHL season restarts this weekend with a revamped playoff-format and an intriguing set-up, as the “new normal” in sports dictates. All the games are to be played in Canada, Edmonton serving as the host for the Western Conference teams and Toronto hosting the Eastern teams. The playoffs will be played with 24 teams, the top 4 of each conference heading straight to the first round after deciding the seeding in a round-robin group, and the rest of the teams battling in a best-of-five series to determine the other four first round teams. The qualifying round pairs have been decided by the regular season standings at the time of the break.

    Top dogs natural favorites

    Before the playoffs, the teams gaining a free pass to the first playoff round are of course biggest favorites, but not only because they get to skip one round. The round robin serves as a great match practice and allows the teams a not-so-important stretch to get back in form. For the others, it’s do or die from the beginning – and we are always looking for surprises.

    At the moment, Easter Conference is dominating the Stanley Cup winner’s race, with four eastern teams in top six – according to the Vegas’ NHL spreads. Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning share the burden of being favorites with odds of +650 each. Western Conference duo Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche follow, with odds of +800 and +900 respectively. Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers and reigning champions St. Louis Blues man the next three positions with odds of +1000 and Dallas Stars compliments the top eight with +1500.

    In Accuscore simulations, the round robin between the top teams is extremely even, as expected. However, there’s a small disagreement between the favorites suggested by the odds and Accuscore simulations. The Western side of the stage is dominated by Colorado Avalanche, while the East is taken by Tampa Bay Lightning. In fact, Colorado is the team most likely to go all the way and hoist the Stanley Cup, according to the simulations. But as always, there are plenty of obstacles on the way and countless variables to tackle.

    The Best of the Rest

    The format makes it rather difficult to challenge the top four of each conference. The first qualification round sees some heated matchups, with teams normally in the playoff-battle at the end of regular season now facing off in a best of five series.

    According to Vegas lines, rising from the qualification round to Stanley Cup Champion is not impossible but a rocky road nevertheless. Pittsburgh Penguins, a declining powerhouse of the East, is deemed the most likely team to beat the odds of +1500. The tournament hosts Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs follow further back with the odds of +2300 and +2900.

    Interestingly some of the pre-season favorites, such as Nashville Predators (+3500), Calgary Flames (+3700) and Winnipeg Jets (+5000), have fallen from grace in the eyes of Vegas oddsmakers. Indeed, their season’s had been disappointing when the forced break hit, but have they managed to get their act together during the lengthy hiatus?

    According to Accuscore’s simulations, yes and no. The Predators are likely to run over Arizona to make it to the first round, where they can challenge any of the top-4 teams. The Flames on the other hand, seem to continue their poor run and allow another challenger, Winnipeg to progress. Jets then get ousted by the eventual Stanley Cup winners, Colorado Avalanche in the first round.

    Playoffs Power Ranking

    With too many variables still in play to determine the bracket all the way, the easiest and most accurate way to predict the outcome, is to simply use Accuscore’s simulation engine to pit each team against each other and then calculate the results and see who comes on top. Here’s the order of things, if the old sporting cliché “you have to beat everyone to be the champions” would indeed be correct:

    1. Colorado Avalanche
    2. Tampa Bay Lightning
    3. St. Louis Blues
    4. Boston Bruins
    5. Edmonton Oilers
    6. Vegas Golden Knights
    7. Nashville Predators
    8. Philadelphia Flyers
    9. Florida Panthers
    10. Winnipeg Jets
    11. Dallas Stars
    12. Washington Capitals
    13. Toronto Maple Leafs
    14. Pittsburgh Penguins
    15. Carolina Hurricanes
    16. Vancouver Canucks


    While the ranking follows the odds for Stanley Cup Champions quite closely, there’s still a couple of good selections to go for. First of all, Colorado Avalanche is beating any of their opponents in best of seven series in the simulations. Their odds of +900 are so attractive that there’s a good pick for a surprise winner.

    For a bit of a longer shot, the hosting Edmonton could be in for a surprise in the fast and furious playoff-format. Familiar surroundings might give an edge even if there’s not home crowd support. The team is not necessarily best suited for a long regular season and heavy playoff load, but now the tournament is more like a start of the new season. The odds for Oilers hover around +2300, which looks nice and is worth a punt.

    Definitely a biggest surprise in the Accuscore simulations comes from Florida. And no, Tampa Bay’s success would not be a surprise. In simulations, Florida Panthers are beating their qualifying round opponents quite easily and fight toe-to-toe with Washington Capitals, prevailing by mere fractions of a percent. But the results show that they can actually beat most of their counterparts, although then being completely outplayed by the top 8 teams. Still, shooting long with the Panthers could be worthwhile with ridiculous +5500 odds.

    It is always worth keeping in mind that the first round pairings are yet to be decided and there’s plenty that can change until the Stanley Cup is decided in early October.

    But based on what we know, this is where we are at!



  • NHL Free Agency 2017: Winners & Losers

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    NHL Free Agency 2017

    NHL free agency is not match with a free spending in NBA, but there has been interesting developments with trades, expansion draft, entry draft, re-signs and free agent signings during last few weeks. Accuscore uses its own player analytics to evaluate winners and losers since start of June. As this advanced player analytics cover only NHL players, we don’t take into consideration entry draft impacts.

    Las Vegas Golden Knights starts first season in NHL. As there is no historical record of the team, we have excluded them from this analysis. However, all players that have departed from other teams during expansion draft, impact in their last season teams.

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    The table below shows top teams that have improved most during last weeks. This includes also their current players that they have re-signed during this period.

    NHL Free Agency winners

    As goalies are the most important single players in every team, those changes are clearly part of many top teams transactions. Anaheim signed one of the top goaltenders, Ryan Miller that is greatly improving their position when looking purely numbers. Re-signatures of Patrick Eaves and Cam Fowler are other remarkable transactions to raise Ducks to top of our list.

    Montreal made one move that reflects here above anything else. Carey Price extended his stay in Montreal with 8-years contract. Without this, Montreal’s combined rating would be -1.78 and considered not so great result of first days of free agency.

    Carolina and San Jose are on the list mainly due to many core players’ new contracts. Carolina added Justin Williams and Trevor van Riemsdyk which will improve team at least for the next season. San Jose couldn’t keep Patrick Marleau, but all other key members stay with the team.

    Dallas has been splashing over 11 millions of the next season’s cap hit to jumpstart the offense that was not able to keep up with the pace year ago. Alexander Radulov and Martin Hanzal would provide needed boost for Stars. Dallas is basically improved most when we concentrate only on free agent signings.

    Winnipeg and Tampa Bay are in top10 only due to contracts of goalies - Steven Mason and Peter Budaj respectively. Without those additions, that many don’t consider great goalies, these teams combined rating would hover around zero.

    Toronto has done reasonably good job since end of the season. They have acquired players that are all above “threshold” player. This “threshold” player is generally player that can be signed from free agent pool during the season. Sounds trivial that you would sign better players during off-season, but that hasn’t happen for many teams.

    Another team that has done good job is New Jersey. With the re-signed goalie Keith Kincaid and recent trade of Marcus Johansson, they can expect much better result from the upcoming season than we have seen during last season when Devils have been in the basement of their division.


    As the free agency is at the end more or less zero sum game, there must be some teams that have not improved, but regressed when we are looking for advanced player analytics from the last season.

    NHL Free Agency Losers

    Minnesota is doing partial house cleaning after quick exit from the playoffs first round. Even though they recorded best regular season results in franchise’s history, there are notable core players that have been traded or let to go during last weeks. Moreover, the nucleus of the team is still in place and the expectation is that this team will fight in the playoffs during upcoming season as well.

    Florida’ season was a disappointment already in regular season. The biggest setback for them is the departure of young center Jonathan Marchessault who was their best player (except goalies) during the last season according to Accuscore’s advanced player analytics. Thomas Vanek and Jaromir Jagr will be missed from Panthers offense in the next season as well.

    In Chicago there has been some departures of relatively good players, but only the return of Brandon Saad from Columbus can be considered as an improvement. As Chicago has been Stanley Cup contender year after year, this small regression during last weeks won’t have big impact to the next season’s target. That would be bringing Stanley Cup back to the windy city.

    Arizona’s number is impacted by the departure of the goalie Mike Smith. They have added only one player that can be consider below “threshold” player and by that they actually have improved their team. It would be interesting to see how well one of the best backup goalie Antti Raanta will do in the desert.

    Columbus added russian magician Artemi Panarin from Chicago, but that won’t cover all departed core offensive players. Saad, Hartnell and Gagner will be missed in Columbus. Especially if team is not repeating the great run of the dark months of the regular season like they did this year.

    Nashville and Pittsburgh seem to have normal traffic of the team that has been fighting in Stanley Cup finals. Both teams lost good players in expansion draft, but returning to finals next season won’t be any surprise for these teams.

    Colorado has been quiet during free agency. That is a bit surprise for a team that won only 22 games during last season and hasn’t won playoffs series in 10 years. Signing Nail Yakupov is not answer for the future. As the free agency continues, some teams may improve their positions before the start of the season. Also development of the young players and top draft picks will influence on teams that are relying more on junior scouting and drafting than improving the team through free agency.

  • NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Qualifying Round - Part 1

    Summer of Hockey is here!

    The NHL playoffs start now, the first of August. Regular season’s top four teams from both conferences have made their way to the actual playoffs already, but the rest of the pack is in for some qualifying action. Best of five series is played within the conferences between teams placed 5.-12. in the regular season. The first five pairs are on fire already tonight and here’s Accuscore’s prediction for those.

    Western Conference

    5. Edmonton Oilers – 12. Chicago Blackhawks

    The Oilers get to play on their home ice, even if there’s not support this time. Far better team by all measurements, Edmonton should get an easy pass over Chicago, who were all but eliminated from the playoffs when the season was put on hold. Connor McDavid and Leon Dreiseitl are likely to get one over Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. In Accuscore’s simulations, Oilers take the series by 67% probability and in four games with 27% likelihood.

    8. Calgary Flames – 9. Winnipeg Jets

    Both teams were in for a disappointment, but can redeem their season with the revamped playoffs. Jets were in trouble with their defense and without Vezina candidate Connor Hellebuyck’s heroics, might have missed their new chance as well. Calgary seemed flat overall and it remains to be seen if they can find a new gear to their game. Both need to improve in order to challenge anyone in the next round, and Accuscore simulations indicate that would be Jets, with 64% probability to beat the Flames. But it is close and most likely to go to 5 games, Jets prevailing in the last moment with 26% probability.

    Eastern Conference

    6. Carolina Hurricanes – 11. New York Rangers

    The last year’s dark horse Carolina is at it again, with their young team flying high heading to the break. They’re facing an uneven Rangers team, who had trouble keeping up to the playoff hunt earlier and are unlikely to pose much of a threat to better organized and disciplined Hurricanes. In Accuscore simulations, Hurricanes take the battle with 60% probability, but Rangers are not an easy target and take it to game 5. Hurricanes take the spoils in 5 with 23% probability.

    7. New York Islanders – 10. Florida Panthers

    Overall an all-around even series between two teams lurking in shadows behind the favorites. Not much was expected from Islanders, but they’ve grinded their way to the playoffs and the team is built for rough postseason hockey – but the playoffs this time are a different world, with no traveling and arguably less hardships of the long season. Florida might be somewhat talented team in the offense, but left a lot to be desired for in the regular season. Still, Accuscore’s simulations indicate the Panthers to finish off Islanders with 63% probability after a long and hard battle in game 5. It’s 26% likelihood for the Panthers to grab a victory at the latest moment possible.

    5. Pittsburgh Penguins – 12. Montreal Canadiens

    Penguin’s season had been a roller coaster of good and bad and everything in between. The veteran superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, supported by the likes of Kris Letang and Jake Guentzel were on and off all season, but the potential to contend for the Stanley Cup is still there. Defense is suspect and goaltending situation a question mark, but Canadiens should not pose a challenge. Their hopes were already gone, but the young team can now head to tease the Penguins with nothing to lose – and with Carey Price between the pipes, anything can happen. Accuscore simulations have Penguins as clear favorites for 67% probability to progress to the 1st round, and we see Penguins win in 4 with 26% probability.


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