NFL Thursday: Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints - Free Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Falcons vs Saints - NFL Thursday Odds & Analyst Pick

Week 14 in the NFL kicks off Thursday night in Atlanta as the Falcons host the New Orleans Saints on a weekend where the Saints will look to sneak into second place in the NFC -- with either the Eagles or Vikings loss. Atlanta, on the other hand, needs to win to stay in the wild card race.

Vegas Odds
There has been a lot of movement on the spread since New Orleans opened as 4-point favorites. Some books even had the spread switch completely to the other side, moving five points to make the Falcons a 1-point favorite. At the time of publication, though, most books across Vegas had this matchup as a pick 'em.

The total opened at 54.5 before dropping a couple points.

Betting Line: Pick 'Em or New Orleans Saints -1
Total: 52

At the time of publication, close to 57 percent of the public were taking New Orleans on the road.

56 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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Betting Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of New Orleans' last 15 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 25 games

What to Watch For

Public Action: According to a recent report, publicly backed teams are just 4-8-1 in Thursday night games this season. With the Saints getting the majority of the public action, there's some solace in knowing the simulation data is supporting the home side -- and going against Vegas.

Backs Running Wild: New Orleans RB Albin Kamara had nine carries for 60 yards and two TDs and caught five of six targets for 66 yards in last week's 31-21 win over the Carolina Panthers. His production has been ridiculous, especially when you consider he never really gets close to 20 touches. It's practically a guarantee of late that he'll find the end zone.

Matty Ice: Falcons QB Matt Ryan completed 16 of 29 passes for 173 yards during last week's14-9 loss to the Vikings. Ryan was pretty, pretty bad last week, recording his lowest total yardage for the season. Ryan is projected to finish Thursday night's game with 289 yards, 2 TDs and a win.

FREE Analyst's Pick

Analyst Pick: Atlanta covering/winning.

AccuScore has all expert picks for NFL Thursday, Sunday and Monday all live: All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

NFL Thursday: Bears at Packers Picks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

All of AccuScore’s NFL Week 4 Picks

Thursday Night Football: Chicago at Green Bay

Week 4 of the NFL slate kicks off Thursday night as the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears in an NFC North showdown. Green Bay's laying more than a TD in some books, with some potential for an upset given the short week. At the time of publication, the Westgate Superbook has the Packers as 7-point favorites with the total setting at 45 after opening at 45.5.

Betting on the Total

Whereas Vegas has the total for this matchup set at 45, our simulation data actually has it a noticeable 3.5 points lower at 41 -- indicating a pick on the UNDER. The total combined score stays below 45 in 59.2 percent of simulations, and stays below 45.5 in in over 61 percent of simulations.

Why bet on the UNDER? The short week isn’t helping the Bears out one bit, but the Packers do enter the matchup with plenty of injury problems.

Betting Trends
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears' last six games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Bears' last 19 games when playing the Packers.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears' last five games when playing on the road against the Packers.
• The Bears are 2-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games on the road.
• The Bears are 2-4 ATS in their last six games when playing on the road against the Packers.
• The Bears are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when playing the Packers.

What to Watch For

The Chicago Bears have been fairly impressive this season -- given their shortage of talent on either side of the ball beyond a handful of positions. They did average 5.8 yards per carry last week behind RBs Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard. The Packers rank 25th in run defense, allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

Howard is projected to finish with 86 yards on 18 carries; Cohen with 15 yards on three carries.

There's no doubt Chicago QB Mike Glennon has no weapons to throw it to, but the turnovers have just got to stop. Also, throwing just one completion on four targets compared to12 checkdowns to running backs on 22 passes is not starting NFL material.

He averages almost as many INTs per sim as TDs [0.8 to 0.9].

Analyst's Pick

Our analyst is coming off a double-winner on Monday night where he got his spread and pick total on point. What's he going with for Thursday night?

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NFL: Colts vs Broncos - Preview & Expert Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Bronocos: Thursday Night Football Analyst Preview

Week 15 in the NFL kicks off Thursday night in Indianapolis as the Colts host the Denver Broncos in a matchup that really has no impact on the postseason as both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The two teams are a combined 2-15 straight up (SU) this year, and 4-13 against the spread (ATS).

Not an easy one to pick when you've got two sub-par teams, but let's take a closer look at where the value is in this matchup.

Vegas Odds

There hasn't been a whole lot of movement since the lines opened, just about a half-point here and there depending on where you're looking. The Broncos opened as 3-point favorites before settling in at -2.5 in most books while the total had a similar half-point drop from 41.

Betting Line: Denver Broncos -2.5
Total: 40.5

At the time of publication, 58 percent of the public were laying the points and taking the Broncos.

52-plus percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
-Indy's last five games have gone UNDER the total.
-The Broncos ended a 7-game ATS losing streak vs the Colts when they played last season.
-The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven games when the Colts are home underdogs.

What to Watch For

Can Siemian Make It Happen?: Colts QB Trevor Siemian had his best game of the season last week against the New York Jets, throwing for 200 yards and 1 TD. That brings his TD-to-INT ratio on the season to 12-to-13. Not too surprising given the Colts' struggles at the QB spot, but WR Demaryius Thomas has just four TDs on the season, and zero games with over 100 yards.

Siemian is projected to finish with 229 yards and 1 TD. Thomas is projected to finish with 47 yards on 4 receptions.

Colts Offense Often a No-Show: The offensive side of the ball has been absolutely horrendous this year for Indy. They're averaging just 16.3 points per game, and Brissett has been average at best. Well, maybe slightly above average since he does have 11 TDs to 7 INTs on the season.

Brissett is projected to finish with 255 yards and 1 TD. He averages 0.6 INTs per sim, so there's a pretty good chance he gets one in the game, but would take the UNDER on any prop bet that's over 1.

Analyst's Pick
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