Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter
All of AccuScore’s NFL Week 4 Picks
Thursday Night Football: Chicago at Green Bay
Week 4 of the NFL slate kicks off Thursday night as the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears in an NFC North showdown. Green Bay's laying more than a TD in some books, with some potential for an upset given the short week. At the time of publication, the Westgate Superbook has the Packers as 7-point favorites with the total setting at 45 after opening at 45.5.
Betting on the Total
Whereas Vegas has the total for this matchup set at 45, our simulation data actually has it a noticeable 3.5 points lower at 41 -- indicating a pick on the UNDER. The total combined score stays below 45 in 59.2 percent of simulations, and stays below 45.5 in in over 61 percent of simulations.
Why bet on the UNDER? The short week isn’t helping the Bears out one bit, but the Packers do enter the matchup with plenty of injury problems.
Betting Trends
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears' last six games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Bears' last 19 games when playing the Packers.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears' last five games when playing on the road against the Packers.
• The Bears are 2-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games on the road.
• The Bears are 2-4 ATS in their last six games when playing on the road against the Packers.
• The Bears are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when playing the Packers.
What to Watch For
The Chicago Bears have been fairly impressive this season -- given their shortage of talent on either side of the ball beyond a handful of positions. They did average 5.8 yards per carry last week behind RBs Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard. The Packers rank 25th in run defense, allowing 4.5 yards per carry.
Howard is projected to finish with 86 yards on 18 carries; Cohen with 15 yards on three carries.
There's no doubt Chicago QB Mike Glennon has no weapons to throw it to, but the turnovers have just got to stop. Also, throwing just one completion on four targets compared to12 checkdowns to running backs on 22 passes is not starting NFL material.
He averages almost as many INTs per sim as TDs [0.8 to 0.9].
Analyst's Pick
Our analyst is coming off a double-winner on Monday night where he got his spread and pick total on point. What's he going with for Thursday night?
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