AccuScore NFL Picks Finish Top, Return +6805 Profit

Written by AccuScore Staff
Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

AccuScore Beats Experts, +6805 on Spreads/Side Value Picks

NFL Pickwatch tracked AccuScore’s moneyline picks against the experts from popular outlets like ESPN, NFL Network and Fox Sports, and Yahoo. Guess what? AccuScore topped everyone in straight up picks with a 178-86 record, meaning our computer was correct 67.4% on all picks this season and post season, up from 65.3% a season earlier.

Beyond that, AccuScore’s side value picks, meaning picks based on value against moneyline odds as determined by AccuScore, were +3095 this season. If you took AccuScore’s advice, and put 100 units down on every game, you’d be up 3,095 profit.

Spread Picks

In addition, AccuScore’s spread picks were +3,710 profit, after going 144-99-21, 59.2% this season.

If you made all spread picks and side value picks and blindly followed AccuScore’s advice this season, you’d be up +3,805 units profit entering Super Bowl 54.

This is the best time to join AccuScore, using code NFL125 to get $100 off annual membership, because you’ll get the entire 2020 regular season, along with the 2021 playoffs and Super Bowl 55 expert picks at a special rate of only $249. That’s spread, side value, totals and moneyline picks for every NFL games, including the Chiefs versus the 49ers in Miami for Super Bowl 54.

Join Now!

With this special, you pay an average of less than $21 per month to get expert picks for every game in the NBA, NHL, March Madness, College Football, Premier League, Champions League and about a dozen more top sports leagues worldwide. Use code NFL125 for $100 off an annual membership instantly.

Don’t miss out.
Become an AccuScore member now

Accuscore’s Most Reliable NFL Picks in 2019

Remember NFL season 2019? There were plenty of surprises and plenty of let-downs, with Patriots crashing out of playoffs early and Cowboys, Rams nor Chargers even making it to the post season. Predicting those unpredictable is extremely hard, but Accuscore still managed to make the best of it, as is depicted in the NFL Pickwatch article. But which team was the most reliant one and should we expect the same trend next season? And on the other hand, which team caused the biggest losses and was indeed the most unpredictable, at least for Accuscore’s algorithms.

Accuscore is making NFL picks for each and every game – among others – and the results can be tracked more than 10 years in the past. Let’s have a look at last season’s selections.

Point Spread Cash Cows

There were two teams standing out in predicting the NFL point spread: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs. Accuscore predicted the point spread correct 13 times in Rams’ 16 games and 14 times in Chiefs 19 games, making the percentages 81% and 74% and profits of +970 and +810.

On the other end of the spectrum were Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars. Green Bay was a serious buzzkill all of the last season and from their 18 games Accuscore only got 4 correct with one push, resulting in -1030 deficit. Jaguars was not that much better, with a result of -710 and 5-11 record in Accuscore’s Point Spread predictions.

Notably, only nine teams returned a negative profits from the point spread, the total adding up to +3710.

Over/Under Heroes and Zeroes

The NFL over under lines seem to have been much closer to truth in Vegas bookmakers’ papers. There was still a couple of very profitable teams, headlined by Seattle Seahawks with 13-5 record and +750 profit and 72% hit-rate. In the other end, Chicago Bears totaled a lousy -1020 and a record of 3-12-1. The rest of the teams were rather closely packed in between and it will be intriguing to see how the new season will play out regarding the totals and the lines set by the bookmakers.

Game Winners

Not taking the odds into consideration is not the best measurement or advice when it comes to betting, but the bragging rights can be achieved by knowing that of course Tennessee will beat the Patriots. Accuscore was astonishingly accurate in the match winner prediction, getting 67% correct from all the games, with a record of 179-88. There was some fluctuation here as well: Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins games resulted in over 80% of correct winners predicted by Accuscore, while Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans crashed well under 50%.

Overall these money line picks would’ve returned a profit of +3095 with an even 100 stake.

Buffalo Bills Season Preview

June 4th, 2020 - By Brandon Barbour

In just the second season with quarterback Josh Allen and the third season with head coach Sean McDermott, the Buffalo Bills went 10-6 and marched into the postseason in 2019. Ultimately, they would lose the Wild Card game in overtime to the Houston Texans. The Bills were even good going up against legit NFL spreads, as they finished the season 9-6-2 against the line covering 60% of games. This surprisingly made the Bills on of the top NFL picks against the spread for last year’s campaign.

As you already know, Tom Brady is out of New England, opening the door for Buffalo to take control of the AFC East. The Bills had a quiet offseason and return with a very similar starting group on defense. This is great news, especially when you consider they allowed the third-fewest yards per contest in 2019 (298.3) and the second-fewest points per game (16.2).

They also return with the similar offense, but with some additions to take note of. They spent a third-round pick on running back Zack Moss to compliment Devin Singletary. Moss will take over the Frank Gore role as an in between the tackle and goal line runner. At 5’9”, 223 pounds, he’s a bruiser.

The key addition was sending off their first-round selection (and many other picks) to the Minnesota Vikings for Stefon Diggs’ services. The 26-year-old has two-consecutive 1,000 receiving yard seasons, including 18 touchdowns over his last 33 games. He immediately slots in as Buffalo’s top wide out ahead of John Brown and Cole Beasley. This is a major acquisition when you consider that the Bills accumulated the worst drop rate in football last season at a whopping 7.0 percent.

The help is here for Josh Allen. The big quarterback improved his completion rate by 6.0 percent in his sophomore season and reduced his interception rate from 3.8 percent to 2.0 percent. He even put together four fourth quarter comebacks and five game winning drives. If you think Diggs won’t take Allen to new heights, then think again. Diggs posted the 10th-best DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) among wide outs last season, including the seventh-best DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).

The Bills are tied for the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL this season. Luckily for them, the Patriots have the most difficult schedule based off of 2019 opponents’ win percentage. Buffalo lost both meetings with New England last season, so they’ll need to improve against Bill Belichick in 2020 in order to vie for the division.

The Bills are coming, but have they arrived? Signs are pointing towards yes, but the offense will have to prove that they’ve grown. The 2020 NFL season is looking bright in Buffalo. It feels like their time to take a leap and continue heading in the right direction. Expect to see the Bills back in the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under 5.5 Wins?

- by Brandon Barbour

The Cincinnati Bengals have moved on from Andy Dalton with the Joe Burrow era officially beginning. The Bengals didn’t screw this draft up and took the local kid with the top overall selection. They even provided him with a new toy at wide receiver in Tee Higgins in the beginning of the second-round. John Ross finished as the best wide out on the club last season, but his 57th-ranked DYAR shows a lack of talent.

Returning at left tackle is last season’s top selection for Cincinnati. Jonah Williams missed all of 2019 after being the first offensive lineman taken in the draft. This should help an offensive line that tied for the fifth-most allowed sacks (50) in the NFL last season, including a stuffed rate that was tied for fourth-worst at 22 percent. The Bengals were one of the worst teams across the board last year but especially against the spread. The Bengals were 6-10 against the spread and covered 37%. Although they are making updates to the roster this team should never be one of your top NFL picks.

The AFC North is simply a brutal division. The Baltimore Ravens are one of the AFC’s top-two teams and the Cleveland Browns are intriguing on paper. On top of that, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a terrific defense and welcome back Ben Roethlisberger. The Bengals are nowhere near a playoff contender, but how does this bode for their projected win total?

Cincinnati may struggle to win their first game this season. The schedule starts out strong with the Los Angeles Chargers, at the Cleveland Browns, at the Philadelphia Eagles, hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars, at the Baltimore Ravens, at the Indianapolis Colts, hosting the Cleveland Browns, hosting the Tennessee Titans, at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Wow, that’s rough. Maybe, just maybe the team could pounce on the Jaguars to take their first win in week 4. If they miss out on that opportunity, then it’s not that crazy to speculate an 0-9 start. Let’s go with 1-8 to be reasonable.

After the brutal start, Cincinnati will visit the Washington Redskins, host the New York Giants, visit the Miami Dolphins, host the Dallas Cowboys, host the Pittsburgh Steelers, visit the Houston Texans, and finish by hosting the Baltimore Ravens. Ok, this gets a bit more interesting. The Redskins and Giants contests should be very interesting. By this time, it’s fair to think that the offense and Burrow could be clicking a bit more. Let’s say they win both. Best case scenario, they’re 3-8 at this point.

The Dolphins are much improved and could be starting Tua Tagovailoa by this point, making a terrific rookie quarterback battle. Even if the Bengals pull this one out, the remaining schedule is brutal and they’d be stuck at four wins. Let’s say the Ravens are resting many starters for week 17 and the Bengals steal one. That puts them at 5-11, still under their NFL over under line of 5.5 wins. While the last two wins mentioned aren’t as practical, they’re possible. Even with the doubt, the Bengals fall short of their projected win total by sportsbooks.

This is quite a time to be a rookie quarterback in a league that’s built off repetitions, chemistry and timing with teammates, and overall knowledge. With the Covid-19 epidemic hammering sports leagues, practicing with large groups has been impossible. The 2020 season was already going to be a challenge for rookie quarterback Burrow, but this is a whole new challenge. The other teams in the AFC North won’t be dealing with the same offseason burden, as they have been with their organizations long enough to be comfortable without the reps. The future is definitely bright for the Bengals, but betting under 5.5 wins is a no-brainer, and it will be interesting to see what the NFL point spreads look like when real teams go up against this Bengals squad.

Green Bay Packers Season Preview

- By Brandon Barbour

After a controversial draft that saw the Green Bay Packers spend their top draft selection on Aaron Rodgers’ replacement, many are wondering what to expect from the Wisconsin team in 2020. They made a run to the NFC Championship game and were whacked by the San Francisco 49ers (37-20) for the second time over the entire season.

Green Bay’s defense was above-average in 2019. They allowed the ninth-fewest points per contest (19.6), despite allowing the 15th-most yards per game (352.6). Their 25 takeaways tied for the seventh-most in the league. The defense wasn’t an issue last season and they won’t be in 2020, as the majority of this defense is returning. The Packers played pretty well on both sides of the ball which made them one of top NFL picks ATS for last year. The Pack finished the season 11-7 against the spread, which made them #6 overall at covering NFL point spreads.

The Packers lost Geronimo Allison to the Detroit Lions in the offseason and added Devin Funchess from the Carolina Panthers. It’s unclear where Funchess stacks up on their depth chart, but he will run with Davante Adams, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and Allen Lazard. This is an area that most thought the Packers would spend a draft pick on upgrading, but instead, they added a tight end and a running back.

The Packers selected A.J. Dillon in the second round of the draft, a nice compliment to Aaron Jones. Dillon should take over as the goal line and between the tackle rusher and kick Jamaal Williams down a notch. This is an indication that the team is ready to pound the rock in 2020. Green Bay was in the middle of the pack in pass percentage last year (59.81 percent of plays), so expect that number to decline a bit. Jones posted the fourth-best DYAR among running backs last season.

The Green Bay offense posted 23.5 points per game last season, good for 15th-most in the NFL. This is why fans expected the club to spend on a wide out in a draft that was wealthy in that department. Sure, the Packers won 13 games and their division last season; however, they won eight of those games by one score or less.

Rodgers can only do so much. He still managed the eighth-best DYAR among quarterbacks last season. He only threw four interceptions on 569 pass attempts, partly because he throws it away often and doesn’t take unnecessary risks. The offense may need to take more of those risks in 2020.

The Packers draw a schedule that’s smack dab in the middle as far as strength of schedule goes. They’ll play the entire NFC South this season, the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans, etc. Unfortunately, it just seems implausible that the Packers will reach 13 wins again. The Packers swept their division last season, so don’t expect a repeat 6-0 against the NFC North again.

The Minnesota Vikings are hot on their tail and looking for a rebound season. They’ll compete for the division in a major way with the Packers. As mentioned, the Packers won a ton of close games in 2019. Can this possibly continue moving forward? The challenges that await the Packers are the same ones from last season. How will they put up enough points to make a Super Bowl run? Will their offense be enough to get them back into the postseason?

There aren’t many teams in 2020 that have as many question marks as the Packers do. It’s unclear what their end result will be, but we can think of a few possibilities, all varying from one extreme to the other. The uncertainty revolving around the Packers is alarming. We’ll have to wait and see what coach Matt LaFleur and company have in store for 2020.

If you are going to be betting the NFL this upcoming season make sure to take a look at these sportsbook promos from local sportsbooks near you because they will give you free money once you create an account.

How To: AccuScore's NFL Picks and College Football Picks Explained

Understanding AccuScore’s Football Picks

Need help understanding AccuScore's football picks? AccuScore may look a bit different because we've updated our look to make things easier for our members. It's still the same great simulations and layout, but now, it's easier to read than ever.

There are two views: The Graph View and the Grid View (better for college football).

The Graph View: UPDATED

After updating our graph view, spread and totals picks are clearer to see than ever before.

For each pick above, we have assigned a number to help explain how to read each of AccuScore's expert picks for every game: Totals, Spreads, Side Value and Moneyline:

1. The Totals pick in this example is "OVER 45.5 points" and 60.9% of simulations have resulted in the games going OVER. This is listed as a one star trends pick (out of 4 stars).

2. The spread pick in this example is "PHI -9.5" because Philadelphia covered the 9.5 points spread in 51.3% of simulations. This pick is identified as a 2-star trends pick, which serves as a good example to remind you that the trends rating is not based on the computer's probability but on the historical trends of how the computer has performed with the teams and other historical trends.

3.The side value pick was the New York Giants, because the moneyline odds at +340 offered 3.4% value when converting Vegas odds into a percentage. This is also represented by the inside circle in the graph. The Vegas odds were giving the Giants a 22.8% chance to win, while AccuScore calculated that the Giants had a 26% chance to win. This means there is 3.2% side value on picking the Giants at +340.

4.The moneyline pick is pretty straight forward in that AccuScore's simulations resulted in the Philadelphia Eagles winning 73.9% of the time in this example. If there is any team that is more than 50% to win, it is the moneyline pick.

If you click on the “full forecast” box, you can play around with slider tools that allow you to adjust the spreads and totals lines to see AccuScore's probabilities at various other lines. Also, the full forecast has player projections for both teams.

Grid View

To get to the grid view, take a look at the red arrow above and click on the three lines. The graph symbol allows you to switch back to the graph view. Due to the number of games in College Football, the grid view is now the default view. Also, you can type in team abbreviations in the search box (green arrow) and find any game you’re looking for faster. The graph view is the default view for most other sports, but switching to the grid view is the same process for every sport.

Understanding the Grid View



Let’s use an example from a college football game to illustrate the grid view: LATech vs Arkansas

Let’s go column by column to understand what everything means in the grid view. Acc Sim% simply lists AccuScore’s simulation calculations, which list Arkansas as an 88% favorite. Conversely, Louisiana Tech only won 11% of simulations. That’s easy enough.

Odds% is AccuScore converting the public odds into a percentage. Before you freak out and think something is wrong, the percentage is over 100% because bookies add a bit of juice to their end. While we removed that juice in the past and converted odds to be out of 100%, leaving the juice in actually allows for a clearer look at true side value because it doesn’t arbitrarily push down Vegas’ odds as a percentage.

In this case, Vegas oddsmakers are saying there is a 97.22% chance of Arkansas winning and only a 5.69% chance of LATech winning. Looking at it side-by-side with AccuScore’s Sim%, the side value is clearly on LATech.

The next column is “PS” and “ACC PS.” The top number is the point spread set by bookmakers, which is Arkansas -25. Below it, AccuScore lists the point spread line we believe it should be: Arkansas -21. Since Vegas is overinflating Arkansas, the point spread pick is Louisiana Tech.

Next, we have the “OU” and “Acc OU” column. Similar to the last column, the first number (52) is the Over/Under line set by Vegas oddsmakers. The number below it is the Over/Under line AccuScore calculated. Since AccuScore’s line is higher than the public odds, the pick is the OVER.

The final three columns are ML, SV, and Total, and all of them simply list the star-rated picks. As the season continues, we will have more trends and 3 and 4-star picks. Using the arrows, members can sort games by star-ratings and instantly find all games offering 4-star totals picks.

Note: AccuScore still offers the ability to change lines and change spreads by clicking on the team names in the grid view. Also, you can see written previews for every game, top trends and player projections.

More Than a Trend: Algorithms Dominate Traditional NFL Experts

Written by AccuScore Staff
Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

Special: All-access membership at 20% off using code NFLplayoffs20
Join AccuScore today!

NFL Experts Cannot Predict - Except One, But Algorithms Can

The NFL Playoffs are starting this week. Many of the usual suspects are hunting for the Super Bowl. Before we get to AccuScore’s playoff predictions, let’s take a look at football experts’ prediction accuracy during the 2019 regular season.

Nflpickwatch.com has tracked more than 80 NFL experts, listing all game winner predictions for each expert all season long. AccuScore was the most accurate predictor this year, according to NFLpickwatch. Was this just luck or is there some more qualified answers why AccuScore’s simulations did so well?

Thanksfully, nflpickwatch,com has tracked NFL experts since 2014. During these six seasons, there have been 32 experts (or fan groups like ESPN fans) that have predicted over 1500 games. This sample size can be considered big enough to make some conclusions about accuracy.

Out of top 10 predictors, two were actual persons (Jamey Eisenberg, CBS and K.J. Joyner ESPN), three were generated by crowdsourcing (Pickwatch fans, Expert consensus and ESPN Fans) - Yahoo Users were number 11, one was Vegas favorite based on betting markets and four were algorithm based prediction companies (TeamRankings, Numberfire, Accuscore and Fivethirtyeight).

After Yahoo users at 11th place, all the other 21 experts were traditional experts, i.e. people seen on TV or read from the internet. Maybe we based our bets or fantasy football team selections on these experts’ comments and advice. During this season, an interesting fact is that the NFL Networks’ top expert quartet--Rich Eisen, Michael Irwin, Kurt Warner and Steve Mariucci--were among the bottom 5 experts being tracked. For their purposes, the topics they discuss are far more important to their jobs than the predictions they provide.

It is interesting to note that companies that provide predictions and picks for individuals are doing much better compared to individual experts. Also, it’s not exactly a surprise that the betting market is one of the best indications of the game winners in the NFL. It is rewarding to hit big on an underdog, but in the long run, dull favorites with side value bring wins to your pocket in sports betting.

How much do you end up winning by picking straight up winners correct in the NFL? During the current season, Accuscore was the most accurate picker of the winners. If you would bet 100 for every game during the season, you would end up having $454 in your pocket at the end of the season. Not a fortune, but better than nothing.

Naturally, the better approach is to compare win probabilities and betting odds from bookmakers side-by-side to find value opportunities to take advantage of. Based on AccuScore’s simulations, $100 bets for every game based on moneyline side value generated $3,097 profit at the end of the season. That’s dramatically better than the $454 profit from straight moneyline betting and ignoring which moneyline odds actually offer value.

Based on these numbers, the best approach to win in the NFL betting is to follow the algorithm based predictions and compare those probabilities to the best odds from sportsbooks. Forget the “experts” -- except maybe one.

Not a Member? Join now for an all-access membership at 20% off using code NFLplayoffs20
Become a member today!

NFL Week 1 Recap

Week 1 in the NFL is in the books and we are happy to finally have the NFL back. Below is a recap of some of our favorite games from the weekend, and some advice for what to do for week 2.

Miami Dolphins 11 - 21 New England Patriots

The Patriots played their first game without Tom Brady in nearly two decades and found themselves on the winning end of the contest -- a stellar rushing performance from Cam Newton carried New England to a 21-11 win over the Dolphins. The Patriots led 7-3 at halftime but pulled away in the second half with two more touchdowns. Newton completed 15 of his 19 passes for 155 yards, but the former Panthers star made his biggest impact on the ground with 75 yards and two touchdowns in 15 rushes -- Newton led the Patriots in both passing and rushing yards. Julian Edelman was New England’s biggest receiving threat, as the speedy wideout recorded 57 yards in five receptions. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 20 of his 30 passes for 191 yards, but the turnovers killed him -- he tossed three interceptions. DeVante Parker was Miami’s top offensive performer with 47 yards on four receptions. The Patriots edged the Dolphins in total yards by a sizable margin (357 to 269) despite the fact the Dolphins led in passing yards 182 to 140. New England won this game on the ground.

If you are betting the NFL check out our friends at BetQL and theirNFL best bets to see which way their model is betting for every game and every

Green Bay Packers 43 - 34 Minnesota Vikings

The Packers and the Vikings played one of the most intense, scoring-free games in Week 1 of the 2020 NFL regular season, as both teams combined for 77 points -- 38 of those in the fourth quarter alone -- and 904 total yards, including both teams surpassing the 240-yard mark when it came to passing yards. The Packers pulled away in the second quarter when they outscored the Vikings 19-3 and, even though Minnesota attempted a late comeback when they won the second quarter by a 24-14 score, they didn’t have enough time to turn things around. Aaron Rodgers, who made one of the most dazzling plays of Week 1 with an epic TD pass to Davante Adams, completed 32 of his 44 passes for 364 yards and four touchdowns, while Adams himself had quite a night -- 14 receptions, 156 yards, and two scores. Kirk Cousins completed 19 of his 25 passes for 259 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Dalvin Cook recorded 50 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries, and Adam Thielen registered 110 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions.

This game had the over under hit pretty quick, and if you want to get some more over under locks for week 2 check outBetQL’s over under picks dashboard, with BetQL you can see their model rating for each game and find out which way the pros & public are betting 

Cleveland Browns 6 - 38 Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens delivered a statement performance in Week 1 against their division-rival Browns, scoring 38 points on them while allowing just six points -- despite the fact that the Browns racked up 306 total yards. The Ravens, however, finished with 377 total yards and were particularly effective in key situations -- they converted 54 percent of their third-down opportunities. The game was close during the first quarter, as the Ravens edged Cleveland 10-6, but they pulled away for good in the second quarter onwards, scoring 28 unanswered points. Lamar Jackson completed 20 of 25 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns, and the star quarterback also added 45 yards on the ground. Mark Andrews recorded 58 yards and two scores on five receptions. Baker Mayfield only completed 21 of his 39 passes for one touchdown and one interception. Kareem Hunt racked up 72 yards on 13 carries, while Jarvis Landry had 61 yards on five receptions.

The experts nailed the Ravens pick on the head for week 1, and if you want to find out who the experts are betting for week 2 you can take a look atBetQL’s NFL picks against the spread to see which way the experts are betting for every game. 

NFL Week 2 Recap

Week 2 in the NFL did not disappoint we had a ton of great games, and a lot of big wins. We hope you are following ourpicks against the spread, but don’t worry we have another week coming up here soon which is another opportunity to build your bank roll. Check out some of our favorite games from week 2 below, and click around to get ready for week 3. 

 

Atlanta Falcons 39 - 40 Dallas Cowboys

The Falcons have produced another epic meltdown, as they had a 99.9 percent probability to win this game but ended losing it late in the final quarter. The Falcons raced out to a 20-0 lead in the first quarter and were up 29-10 by halftime, as they controlled the flow of the game during the first three quarters with ease -- they held a 15-point lead (39-24) in the fourth quarter as well. The Cowboys then produced three unanswered scoring drives and came away with the victory with a 46-yard field goal from Greg Zuerlein with only four seconds left on the clock. Dak Prescott completed 34 of 47 passes for 450 yards and one touchdown while adding 18 yards and three scores through the ground. Ezekiel Elliott recorded 89 yards and a score on 22 carries, while CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper each reached the 100-yard plateau when it came to receiving yards. Matt Ryan tossed four touchdown passes and racked up 273 aerial yards, but it wasn’t enough -- Calvin Ridley was the biggest beneficiary of Ryan’s performance since he ended with 109 yards and two scores in seven receptions.

Check out our friends at BetQL to see thepublic picks for every game and every bet type during the NFL season. 

 

Detroit Lions 21 - 42 Green Bay Packers

The Lions got off to an impressive start against the Packers and held a 14-3 lead following the first quarter, but Green Bay would outscore Detroit 39-7 in the remaining three quarters to secure a comfortable win at Lambeau Field. Lions’ receiver Marvin Jones completed 84 straight games with a catch and produced a score on four receptions, while Adrian Peterson notched 41 yards on seven rushing attempts. Matthew Stafford was far from his best, though, completing “only” 20 of his 33 passes for 244 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. At the other end, Aaron Rodgers wasn’t that much better -- completed 18 of 30 passes for 240 yards and two scores -- but the real star of the game was Aaron Jones, who racked up 168 yards and two touchdowns in just 18 carries, averaging an impressive 9.3 yards per attempt. Jones also added four receptions for 68 yards and another touchdown.

No matter how you like to bet on football our friends at BetQL have you covered. If you are looking for the most updatedmoneyline odds, spreads, or picks BetQL has it all for every game and every bet type. 

 

Carolina Panthers 17 - 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady tossed a first-quarter touchdown pass to Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette added two rushing scores as the Buccaneers secured their first win of the season with a 31-17 victory over the Panthers on Sunday afternoon. The biggest story of the game wasn’t Brady’s first win as Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback, however, because star running back Christian McCaffrey limped out of the game after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter and is expected to be out for “multiple weeks”. Brady was sharp, completing 23 of 35 passes for 217 yards, a touchdown and an interception, but Fournette carried the Buccaneers in this one with 103 yards and two touchdowns in only 12 carries. Mike Evans racked up 104 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions. As for the Panthers, Bridgewater completed 33 of 42 passes for 367 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, while McCaffrey had 18 carries for 59 yards and two scores. D.J. Moore (120 yards on eight receptions) and Robby Anderson (109 yards on nine grabs) each topped the 100-yard plateau for the Panthers.

BetQL is your one stop shop for all football betting data. If you are shopping for odds, checking for line movement, or looking to get in on the2nd half line BetQL has you covered. It is the ultimate sports betting tool. 

NFL: Betting Against the Spread

Most Surprising Team Against the Spread:
Los Angeles Rams

• Despite going 9-7 and missing the playoffs in 2019, the Los Angeles Rams were one of the best NFL picks against the spread, and were the second-best team (behind the Chiefs) against the spread, covering 66.7% of their games.

• The Rams were impressive last season when playing away from home last year, going 4-4. However, a couple of those losses were close enough to beat the spread. 

• Los Angeles was wildly inconsistent in 2019, which is why they missed the playoffs. But the Rams still had enough talent to beat quality teams, blowout poor teams, and keep pace with any team in the league.

• Given the team’s consistency last season and a difficult schedule in 2020 that includes seven games with playoff teams from last year, don’t bet on the Rams covering 66.7% of their games this season.

Road Warriors
Everybody knows that it’s not easy going on the road in the NFL, even for good teams. But the Rams were a solid 4-4 away from home in 2019, including three wins in the Eastern Time Zone. Granted, they were favored in those three games, but they covered all three of them. In their most difficult road games, the Rams lost by one point to the Seahawks and three points to the 49ers, beating the spread in both games. That led to a 6-2 ATS record on the road in 2019.

Any Given Day
The biggest reason why the Rams missed the playoffs last year was their inconsistency and propensity simply not showing up at times. They spoiled a 3-0 start with a 15-point home loss to the Buccaneers. They were blown out 45-6 at home against the Ravens. They also lost in Dallas 44-21 late in the season despite being slight road favorites. However, the Rams could go toe-to-toe with elite teams on any given day. As mentioned, they managed close road losses with the Seahawks and 49ers and beat Seattle at home. They also thrashed the Saints 27-9 in Week 2. On their good days, the Rams could take care of business against lesser teams, blowing out the Falcons, Bengals, and Cardinals while also beating the Browns and Bears by at least a touchdown.

Hold Your Bets
The level of inconsistency the Rams showcased last season makes them a poor candidate to repeat their 66.7% ATS winning percentage in 2020. With the 49ers winning the NFC last year and the Cardinals on the rise, the NFC West is a treacherous division. The Rams will play seven games against teams that made the playoffs last year with four of those games coming on the road. Los Angeles will also play five road games in the Eastern Time Zone, including games against the Eagles, Bills, and Buccaneers. Such a schedule will make it difficult for the Rams to find consistency and make it difficult for bettors to put their faith in L.A. to cover week after week.

San Francisco 49ers: Over/Under 10.5 Wins?

June 2nd, 2020 - By Brandon Barbour

After going 13-3 in 2019, the San Francisco 49ers are hopeful of making another Super Bowl run. With regular-season NFL over unders as one of the main futures bets to focus on in the sport, bettors are breaking down schedules and offseason moves to figure out where they can make some cash. The 49ers have a 10.5 line for their win total in 2020. Which side of this bet should you hammer?

 

Offseason Moves

It was a fairly quiet offseason for San Francisco. They traded away DeForest Buckner, Marquise Goodwin, and Matt Breida. For Buckner, they received the Indianapolis Colts first-round selection, and replaced their defensive-lineman with a younger, cheaper lineman in Javon Kinlaw. Late round picks were swapped in the deals involving Goodwin and Breida.

The 49ers also let Emmanuel Sanders walk in free agency to the New Orleans Saints. They spent a late first-round pick on a new wide out in Brandon Aiyuk to fill the hole. Longtime offensive lineman, Joe Staley, decided to hang it up and call it a career. This prompted the 49ers to swoop in and pull off a trade with the Washington Redskins to acquire Trent Williams, a terrific offensive tackle. Despite losing some offensive weapons, the 49ers return with a very similar squad and starting cast.

 

Schedule And Outlook

Now, let’s break down the schedule. It wouldn’t be shocking if San Francisco got off to a raging start. Last year the Niners were one of the top NFL picks against the spread, they covered the spread in 61% of their games, so you have to think they will be close to this mark this upcoming year. They’ll host the Arizona Cardinals, visit the New York Jets, visit the New York Giants, host the Philadelphia Eagles, host the Miami Dolphins, and host the Los Angeles Rams. Clearly, the Eagles are the challenge in the first six weeks. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the team started 6-0 or 5-1.

This is where the schedule gets rough. They’ll visit the New England Patriots, visit the Seattle Seahawks, host the Green Bay Packers (Thursday Night Football), and visit the New Orleans Saints before a week 11 bye. That’s a ton of travel and a battle with the Packers on short rest. Let’s say San Francisco splits the four games. Worst case scenario, they’ve started out 7-3 and finished off the worst part of their schedule in 2020. Not bad! As a bettor you also have to be keeping your eye on the NFL spreads to make sure you are getting value on the bets. Against these other top tier NFL teams even the smallest point spread can make a difference.

After the rough patch, the 49ers will visit the Rams, host the Buffalo Bills, host the Washington Redskins, visit the Dallas Cowboys, visit the Cardinals, and host the Seahawks. Conservatively, San Francisco would end up with at least 11 wins with the potential to win 12 or even 13.

Last season, the 49ers went 5-1 against their division. The Cardinals and Seahawks will be better, no doubt, but the 49ers are still boasting a championship roster. It’s very possible that San Francisco only has three different playoff teams to get through on the schedule (Eagles, Seahawks, Saints). No one knows exactly what to expect from the Patriots, Packers, or Cowboys. So, while the schedule may appear scary, it isn’t so bad.

This will be coach Kyle Shanahan’s fourth seasons with the club. He has built a championship roster and has fully implemented his ways into the organization. Last season was Jimmy Garoppolo’s first full season with the offensive guru, so expect some growth from the quarterback in 2020. All signs point to the 49ers going over 10.5 wins. This feels like a bet worth making.

You can place risk free bets for this upcoming NFL season by taking a look at these sportsbook bonus codes from BetQL. Find a local sportsbook and create a new account to get free money to bet with.