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NFL Experts Cannot Predict - Except One, But Algorithms Can

The NFL Playoffs are starting this week. Many of the usual suspects are hunting for the Super Bowl. Before we get to AccuScore’s playoff predictions, let’s take a look at football experts’ prediction accuracy during the 2019 regular season.

Nflpickwatch.com has tracked more than 80 NFL experts, listing all game winner predictions for each expert all season long. AccuScore was the most accurate predictor this year, according to NFLpickwatch. Was this just luck or is there some more qualified answers why AccuScore’s simulations did so well?

Thanksfully, nflpickwatch,com has tracked NFL experts since 2014. During these six seasons, there have been 32 experts (or fan groups like ESPN fans) that have predicted over 1500 games. This sample size can be considered big enough to make some conclusions about accuracy.

Out of top 10 predictors, two were actual persons (Jamey Eisenberg, CBS and K.J. Joyner ESPN), three were generated by crowdsourcing (Pickwatch fans, Expert consensus and ESPN Fans) - Yahoo Users were number 11, one was Vegas favorite based on betting markets and four were algorithm based prediction companies (TeamRankings, Numberfire, Accuscore and Fivethirtyeight).

After Yahoo users at 11th place, all the other 21 experts were traditional experts, i.e. people seen on TV or read from the internet. Maybe we based our bets or fantasy football team selections on these experts’ comments and advice. During this season, an interesting fact is that the NFL Networks’ top expert quartet--Rich Eisen, Michael Irwin, Kurt Warner and Steve Mariucci--were among the bottom 5 experts being tracked. For their purposes, the topics they discuss are far more important to their jobs than the predictions they provide.

AccuScore NFL Spread and Totals Picks record

It is interesting to note that companies that provide predictions and picks for individuals are doing much better compared to individual experts. Also, it’s not exactly a surprise that the betting market is one of the best indications of the game winners in the NFL. It is rewarding to hit big on an underdog, but in the long run, dull favorites with side value bring wins to your pocket in sports betting.

How much do you end up winning by picking straight up winners correct in the NFL? During the current season, Accuscore was the most accurate picker of the winners. If you would bet 100 for every game during the season, you would end up having $454 in your pocket at the end of the season. Not a fortune, but better than nothing.

Naturally, the better approach is to compare win probabilities and betting odds from bookmakers side-by-side to find value opportunities to take advantage of. Based on AccuScore’s simulations, $100 bets for every game based on moneyline side value generated $3,097 profit at the end of the season. That’s dramatically better than the $454 profit from straight moneyline betting and ignoring which moneyline odds actually offer value.

Based on these numbers, the best approach to win in the NFL betting is to follow the algorithm based predictions and compare those probabilities to the best odds from sportsbooks. Forget the “experts” -- except maybe one.

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2019 NFL Experts Predictions

Today’s Free Sports Predictions

Date	Team	Acc Sim%	Odds%	PS	OU Acc OU	ML	SV	Total
2025-06-26 13:10:00 26/06 13:10 AM	ATH DET	33.1 66.9	41.8 58.2	DET 0	N/A 8

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What is Accuscore?

Accuscore provides predictive analytics on sports, based on the company’s own algorithmic simulation engine which has been under constant development for almost two decades. Sports predictions are an outcome of simulations in which individual games are simulated for thousands of times in order to arrive to the most likely results. These results are then used to create analytical predictions, content and advice for bettors, pundits or any stakeholders in the industry or media field. For the individual US users, Accuscore’s predictions can be accessed through subscription to BetQL.

The Accuscore simulation engine uses the relevant historical data of the players, teams and leagues to predict the outcomes of the games before they have started. The simulation results are based on the individual player performances and weighted according to the teams’ form, opponent and other circumstances that have been proven relevant to the outcome of the match. We have managed to filter out the unnecessary data-points by determining which are important and which are not – this has taken several hundreds of thousands of simulations, cross-references and comparisons of simulation results to actual outcomes.

Accuscore aims to provide independent, unbiased and objective sports predictions for all the customers. We strive to be transparent and all our simulations results are available in the archives. Throughout the years Accuscore has worked with several betting companies, for example Pinnacle and Coolbet, media houses such as Telia and Sporing News, sports teams and leagues, and of course individuals through our subscription service.

Our capabilities include tailoring the sports predictions service to any B2B need with different licensing models, revenue sharing programs or affiliate markets. We can package content based on the simulations in several different ways, which can include automated widgets, unique articles, videos or pure numbers from a feed – whatever suits your needs!

Which sports does Accuscore cover?

Currently Accuscore provides detailed sports predictions for most of the popular sports and leagues in the World. The current offering includes:

American Football: NFL and College Football
Basketball: NBA and College Basketball
Baseball: MLB baseball
Ice Hockey: NHL, Finnish Liiga, Swedish SHL and World Championships
Football (soccer) leagues:
- Champions League
- English Premier League
- Spanish La Liga
- Italian Serie A
- German Bundesliga
- French Ligue 1
- Scottish Premier League
- Portuguese Liga
- Netherlands Eredivisie
- Mexican Liga MX
- North-American MLS
- Chinese Super League
- English Championship, League One and League Two
- Major international tournaments: World Cup, Euro, Copa America

Accuscore’s newly implemented model for eSports is currently in its testing phase and the CSGO (Counter Strike: Global Offensive) sports predictions can be found from our sister site.

We also have capability to add leagues on request and provide unique, tailor-made service.

How to use Accuscore sports predictions?

Accuscore’s simulations provide various advantages for both businesses and individuals. The simulations are based on a sovereign algorithmic system and all the simulations are always ran the exact same way. The only variables are the data inputs which the simulation engine then uses to create the sports predictions according to the algorithmic model. The model has a proven track record and for example the NFL picks have provided constant profit over the years.

The simulations provide probabilities for the outcomes of the games which include – depending of the sport – for example the most likely final result, the amount of goals or points and player performances. These sport predictions can be compared to odds in order to make a more educated betting decision or they can be used to support, oppose or adjust ones view on the betting market.

For businesses the sports predictions provide an opportunity to use original content in various forms which can be modified to suit any need, for example: providing more information to customers, attracting traffic or users, as unique content to publish or for other marketing purposes such as short videos for social media. We are happy to tailor our service for each B2B customer.

How to join Accuscore and secure the best sports predictions?

The best way to start using the Accuscore sports predictions is to subscribe to our service which includes a free seven-day trial period. Subscription allows access to all the sports predictions, historical archives and articles. If you are not happy with the service, you can cancel the subscription within the seven-day period with no cost.

We are also providing a daily free preview on the Accuscore site, so be sure to check back regularly to catch the prediction for the oncoming game. Occasionally we are also providing picks from our experts, based on the simulations. The picks can be found from our free expert picks page.

For any B2B needs, feel free to contact us through customer service or look us up at LinkedIn or Facebook !