Accuscore’s Most Reliable NFL Picks in 2019

Remember NFL season 2019? There were plenty of surprises and plenty of let-downs, with Patriots crashing out of playoffs early and Cowboys, Rams nor Chargers even making it to the post season. Predicting those unpredictable is extremely hard, but Accuscore still managed to make the best of it, as is depicted in the NFL Pickwatch article. But which team was the most reliant one and should we expect the same trend next season? And on the other hand, which team caused the biggest losses and was indeed the most unpredictable, at least for Accuscore’s algorithms.

Accuscore is making NFL picks for each and every game – among others – and the results can be tracked more than 10 years in the past. Let’s have a look at last season’s selections.

Point Spread Cash Cows

There were two teams standing out in predicting the NFL point spread: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs. Accuscore predicted the point spread correct 13 times in Rams’ 16 games and 14 times in Chiefs 19 games, making the percentages 81% and 74% and profits of +970 and +810.

On the other end of the spectrum were Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars. Green Bay was a serious buzzkill all of the last season and from their 18 games Accuscore only got 4 correct with one push, resulting in -1030 deficit. Jaguars was not that much better, with a result of -710 and 5-11 record in Accuscore’s Point Spread predictions.

Notably, only nine teams returned a negative profits from the point spread, the total adding up to +3710.

Over/Under Heroes and Zeroes

The NFL over under lines seem to have been much closer to truth in Vegas bookmakers’ papers. There was still a couple of very profitable teams, headlined by Seattle Seahawks with 13-5 record and +750 profit and 72% hit-rate. In the other end, Chicago Bears totaled a lousy -1020 and a record of 3-12-1. The rest of the teams were rather closely packed in between and it will be intriguing to see how the new season will play out regarding the totals and the lines set by the bookmakers.

Game Winners

Not taking the odds into consideration is not the best measurement or advice when it comes to betting, but the bragging rights can be achieved by knowing that of course Tennessee will beat the Patriots. Accuscore was astonishingly accurate in the match winner prediction, getting 67% correct from all the games, with a record of 179-88. There was some fluctuation here as well: Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins games resulted in over 80% of correct winners predicted by Accuscore, while Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans crashed well under 50%.

Overall these money line picks would’ve returned a profit of +3095 with an even 100 stake.

Dolphins vs Patriots: NFL Monday Analyst Preview & Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Dolphins vs Patriots: Monday Night Football Analyst Preview

Monday Night Football action this week takes us to Miami as the 5-7 Dolphins host the 10-2 New England Patriots in a matchup that has the road team as heavy 11-point favorites. Miami did get a 35-9 victory over Denver, and QB Jay Cutler will look to use that momentum against a New England franchise he has never beaten.

Vegas Odds
The spread has held constant since opening, but the total dropped about 1-1.5 points since opening at 48.5.

Betting Line: New England Patriots -11
Total: 47.5

At the time of publication, close to 64 percent of the public were laying the points and taking the Pats.

58-plus percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games.
- The Patriots are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Patriots’ last eight games as the favorite.

What to Watch For
Cutler vs New England: In his three career matchups against the Patriots, Cutler has lost by 34, 29, and 29 points, respectively.

Cutler is projected to finish with 226 points, 1 TD and 1 INT.

Tom Brady Good-to-Go: Despite reports earlier in the week, Brady (Achilles) will not carry an injury designation into MNF -- according to Doug Kyed of NESN.com. He didn't practice Saturday, but received treatment instead and looks to be good-to-go for Monday.

Brady is projected to finish with 243 yards and 2+ TDs.

Silver Lining: One of the bright spots for Miami lately has been RB Kenyan Drake. Drake had a convincing 120-yard performance in Miami's win over Denver, and will need to have another big-time performance if Miami is going to cover and keep it close.

Drake is projected to finish with 67 yards on 14 carries. He does average 0.5 TDs per sim, so expect him to find the end-zone once on Monday.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL Sunday: LA Rams at Ten Titans Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

NFL Sunday: Week 16 - LA Rams at Tennessee Titans

The Los Angeles Rams may have secured the NFC West division title last week with their road win in Seattle, but they'll be looking to keep this remarkable season going on the right track as they head to Tennessee for a matchup with the Titans. These two sides haven't played each other since 2013, when the Rams won 28-21 still representing the city of St. Louis.

All of AccuScore's NFL picks
Our computer has simulated every game 10,000 times like it does every week. Entering Week 16, the computer is 118-93-11, +1460 profit on all Over/Under picks this season: Week 16 NFL picks

Vegas Odds
The spread has stayed steady since the Rams opened as 6.5-point favorites. The total dropped about 1.5 points in most books since opening at 49.

Betting Line: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 Total:47.5

At the time of publication, 68 percent of the public were laying the points and picking the Rams.

63 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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What to Watch For
Playoff Picture: Mariota finished last week's 25-23 loss to the San Francisco 49ers completing 23-of-33 passes for 241 yards and 2 TDs. Mariota connected successfully with seven different receivers.

Mariota is projected to finish with 221 passing yards, 1 TD, and 31 rushing yards on 4 attempts.

Runnin' Wild: Rams RB Todd Gurley had himself a game last week, finishing with 4 TDs and 152 yards on 21 carries. The Rams dominated the Seahawks in Seattle, winning 42-7, and Gurley showed why he's one of the best as he went practically untouched on a 57-yard run. Tennessee is solid against the run, but it's nothing Gurley can't handle.

Gurley is projected to finish with 116 yards on 18-to-19 carries and 1 TD.

Analyst's Pick
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Saturday's Analyst Preview: Packers vs Vikings Pick