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  • 2017 NBA Finals Predictions

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    2017 NBA Finals: Warriors in 5

    AccuScore’s computer feels rather strongly that the Golden State Warriors will win the 2017 NBA Finals and win rather comfortably. The Warriors won 88.5% of the 10,000 series played out in the simulated environment, while Cleveland only won 11.5% of the time. It’s not impossible for LeBron James and company to win, but they face long odds. If it’s going to happen, Game 6 gives the Cavs their best chance to win. According to the computer, Warriors in 5 is the most likely outcome with 34.3% of simulations ending with the Warriors standing victorious after 5 games. However, there is a 21.3% chance that this series goes the full 7 games.

    NBA Finals Game 1: Cavs at Warriors

    NBA Finals 2017 - Game 1 prediction
    Click Here for FREE NBA Finals Game 1 Forecast

    The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers tip off their NBA Finals rematch Thursday at Oracle Arena. Anyone following the league this year knew this rematch was practically inevitable - two stacked teams that were clearly head and shoulders above the competition.

    The Warriors are 7-point favorites with the total set at 225.

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sims

    A day ahead of the game, wager tracking data suggested that the majority of the public is leaning towards a Cleveland moneyline pick, with close to 74% of ML dollars on the Cavs (+270) for Game 1.

    AccuScore sim data, however, would go against the public trend in this case. The Warriors cover a -7 spread in over 82 percent of simulations, suggesting some value on an ATS pick that generally suggests 52-to-53 percent chance of happening (-110).

    The biggest value in Game 1 seems to be on the total though, with AccuScore's simulated total about five points lower than that listed in Vegas.

    Betting Trends
    • The Cavs are 2-5 straight up (SU) in their last seven road games vs the Warriors.

    • The Cavaliers are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of 7.0 points or less.

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    What to Watch For: Game 1

    Steph Curry has quietly had an incredible postseason. Even beyond the remarkable 12-0 start to the playoffs, Curry's numbers have been under-hyped. Currently, he's averaging 28.6 points per game on 43 percent shooting from beyond the arc and 50 percent overall from the field. Outside of someone like LeBron James, there's no one playing better ball than Curry. In the decisive fourth quarter of last year's Game 7 vs the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, Curry was just 1-of-6 from the field. Let's just say he'll look to replace that memory with a better one this time around.

    The Cavaliers' offense has been beyond comprehension in the postseason, putting up 120.7 points per 100 possessions. We're expecting them to be just fine on that end of the floor. What potentially could be a nightmare is their struggling defense. In the regular season, only eight teams had a worse defensive rating compared to Cleveland.

  • 2019 NBA Finals Pick: Warriors in 6 Over Raptors

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    2019 NBA Finals: Warriors Heavy Favorites Over Raptors

    This shouldn't come as a shocker: The Golden State Warriors are heavy favorites to beat the Toronto Raptors. AccuScore's 10,000 simulations on the series have the Warriors winning nearly 80% of the time, which means the current Vegas odds at Warriors to win at -280 offer notable value. The longer the series goes, the better the Raptors' odds of winning the series, with Game 7 providing Toronto its best chance of pulling the upset..



    The Warriors' best odds of winning the series come in Game 6 on their home court, with a five-game gentleman's sweep the next most likely outcome of the series. A true sweep has a nearly 18% chance, which points to how poorly this series could go for the Raptors even if Kevin Durant isn't around to start the series. The Warriors actually have a better chance of winning in four games than they have of winning in seven games. If the series goes to a decisive 7th game, the Raptors will have home court advantage and the mismatch turns into a slightly deformed coin flip. The Warriors technically still have the edge in a Game 7, but the last time the Warriors ended up in Game 7 of the Finals, things did not turn out well for the crew from Golden State.

    For the start of the series, at least, it should be fascinating to watch Stephen Curry lead the Warriors against Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors in Canada.

    AccuScore has expert picks for every game of the 2019 NBA Finals, against the spread, side value and on totals.
    NBA Finals Expert Picks

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  • NBA Finals 2018: Warriors HEAVY Favorites

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    2018 NBA Finals: Predictions

    A year ago, AccuScore said the Golden State Warriors would win in five games and that’s exactly what happened.

    With the NBA Finals tipping-off on Thursday, AccuScore again employed its simulation engine to figure out the chances for each team to win and calculate out what the most likely outcome would be. Well, the Golden State Warriors are an absurd 88.6% to win the series with a 21.6% chance of sweeping the Cavaliers.

    Yes, this is a mismatch and far more of a mismatch than the Warriors versus the Rockets was projected to be and eventually turned out to be. Even with LeBron James playing as an all-time great, the Warriors’ array of superstars is far too much for one man to carry a team across the finish line.

    The most likely outcome in the 2018 NBA Finals is a Cavaliers’ victory in five games, 24.4%, or six games, 26.8%. On the flip side, the Cavs’ best odds of a series win comes in seven games at 4.1%, meaning Cleveland winning the series would be a massive upset.

    Game 1 Expert Picks: Spreads/Totals/Player Props

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    Without LeBron
    To highlight the importance of LeBron James, our computer also ran the simulations without James to determine the impact a player of his caliber would have on the series. If LeBron wasn’t on the Cavaliers, the Warriors’ likelihood jumps to 95.4% with the most likely outcome a sweep at 32.3%. Without James, the Cavs’ chances of winning are in less than half.

    Without Steph Curry
    If James is playing and Stephen Curry was to sit out the series, Golden State is still the favorite because of Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, but the Warriors’ odds of winning drop dramatically to 68.7% with the series projected to extend to six or seven games. The Cavs are still not likely to win the series, but the prospects are far more realistic without Curry on the court draining three-pointers.

    Conclusion

    Of course, both LeBron and Steph are playing, so the Cavs are facing long odds. To put the reality of the discrepancy into focus, the Warriors are almost two times more likely to sweep the Cavaliers than Cleveland is to win the series—and that’s with LeBron healthy. More than 50% of simulations have the Warriors winning in either five or six games, with the series going six games edging out a repeat of 2017’s five-game “gentleman’s sweep.”