Written by Rohit Ghosh
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2017 NBA Finals: Warriors in 5
AccuScore’s computer feels rather strongly that the Golden State Warriors will win the 2017 NBA Finals and win rather comfortably. The Warriors won 88.5% of the 10,000 series played out in the simulated environment, while Cleveland only won 11.5% of the time. It’s not impossible for LeBron James and company to win, but they face long odds. If it’s going to happen, Game 6 gives the Cavs their best chance to win. According to the computer, Warriors in 5 is the most likely outcome with 34.3% of simulations ending with the Warriors standing victorious after 5 games. However, there is a 21.3% chance that this series goes the full 7 games.
NBA Finals Game 1: Cavs at Warriors
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The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers tip off their NBA Finals rematch Thursday at Oracle Arena. Anyone following the league this year knew this rematch was practically inevitable - two stacked teams that were clearly head and shoulders above the competition.
The Warriors are 7-point favorites with the total set at 225.
Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sims
A day ahead of the game, wager tracking data suggested that the majority of the public is leaning towards a Cleveland moneyline pick, with close to 74% of ML dollars on the Cavs (+270) for Game 1.
AccuScore sim data, however, would go against the public trend in this case. The Warriors cover a -7 spread in over 82 percent of simulations, suggesting some value on an ATS pick that generally suggests 52-to-53 percent chance of happening (-110).
The biggest value in Game 1 seems to be on the total though, with AccuScore's simulated total about five points lower than that listed in Vegas.
• The Cavs are 2-5 straight up (SU) in their last seven road games vs the Warriors.
• The Cavaliers are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of 7.0 points or less.
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What to Watch For: Game 1
Steph Curry has quietly had an incredible postseason. Even beyond the remarkable 12-0 start to the playoffs, Curry's numbers have been under-hyped. Currently, he's averaging 28.6 points per game on 43 percent shooting from beyond the arc and 50 percent overall from the field. Outside of someone like LeBron James, there's no one playing better ball than Curry. In the decisive fourth quarter of last year's Game 7 vs the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, Curry was just 1-of-6 from the field. Let's just say he'll look to replace that memory with a better one this time around.
The Cavaliers' offense has been beyond comprehension in the postseason, putting up 120.7 points per 100 possessions. We're expecting them to be just fine on that end of the floor. What potentially could be a nightmare is their struggling defense. In the regular season, only eight teams had a worse defensive rating compared to Cleveland.