Analysis: Clippers Trade Blake Griffin to Pistons

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Blake Griffin Traded to Detroit - Analysis

The biggest trade during this NBA season sent shock waves through the Association, as the LA Clippers traded their biggest star Blake Griffin, along with Brice Johnson and Willie Reed to the Detroit Pistons for Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic as well as first and second round draft picks. Harris and Bradley were starting in Detroit and it is expected that they’ll be starting for the Clippers now.

Even though these kinds of trades have long-term impact that go beyond a single season, Accuscore simulated rest of the season before and after the trade to compare the immediate impact of this trade on both teams for the remainder of the season. Both teams are in a playoff race. Detroit is currently just below a playoffs spot at 9th in the Eastern Conference. That is an exactly same position where the LA Clippers sit in the Western Conference.

The simulations before the trade gave the Clippers 63% chances of reaching the playoffs, which was higher than Detroit’s 40% probability for a postseason berth.

The simulations after the trade don’t show dramatic improvements for either team. Actually, both teams look to have lower probabilities to reach the playoffs this season. The postseason probability for the Detroit Pistons look to be just under 38%. For the LA Clippers same number drops to 61%.

Clearly, both teams did not make this trade for its impact on the current season alone. This is a long-term move by both organizations, and AccuScore's simulations only further confirm that fact.

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NBA: Pistons at Magic - Trends & Picks

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NBA Friday: Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic - Free Preview

AccuScore simulates every game 10,000 times based on historical data and compares its results to the public odds to derive value and make picks

On Friday night in Orlando, the Detroit Pistons are the slightest of favorites at 50.1% to win, according to AccuScore's simulations. While that still makes the Pistons the moneyline favorites, the odds makers have the Pistons at 58.2% to win, so there's side value on picking the Orlando Magic to pull the upset in this game. AccuScore is +1211 on side value picks when the Pistons are on the road this season, so the trends suggest you take notice.

While picking the Magic on the moneyline may be a bit adventurous, the close nature of this game suggests that Orlando +2.5 may be the better play, and it is a 4-star trends pick from AccuScore, with 55.9% of simulations resulting in the Magic either winning outright or losing by 2 or fewer points.

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On the Totals pick, AccuScore again has a 4-star pick for Friday's game with 61% of simulations going UNDER the 214.5 combined points. Our forecast also allows you to adjust the line if you're getting different odds.

Hot Trends
-Detroit Pistons: AccuScore is 21-7, 75% +1330 on picking Totals in away games for the Pistons this season.
-Orlando Magic: AccuScore is 18-11, 62% +590 on picking Totals in home games for the Magic this season.
-Detroit Pistons: AccuScore is 17-11, 61% +1211 on side value picks on all Pistons road games this season
-Orlando Magic: AccuScore is 16-13, 55% +417 on side value picks on all Magic home games this season.

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Player Projections:

Blake Griffin projects to lead Detroit in scoring, averaging 18.4 points and 7.2 rebounds per simulation. Andre Drummond is next on the Pistons with 13.4 points and 13.4 rebounds in the game.

Even Fournier leads the Magic with 15.6 points per simulation, but five different Orlando players averaged double figures in scoring in simulations.