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Blake Griffin Traded to Detroit - Analysis

The biggest trade during this NBA season sent shock waves through the Association, as the LA Clippers traded their biggest star Blake Griffin, along with Brice Johnson and Willie Reed to the Detroit Pistons for Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic as well as first and second round draft picks. Harris and Bradley were starting in Detroit and it is expected that they’ll be starting for the Clippers now.

Even though these kinds of trades have long-term impact that go beyond a single season, Accuscore simulated rest of the season before and after the trade to compare the immediate impact of this trade on both teams for the remainder of the season. Both teams are in a playoff race. Detroit is currently just below a playoffs spot at 9th in the Eastern Conference. That is an exactly same position where the LA Clippers sit in the Western Conference.

The simulations before the trade gave the Clippers 63% chances of reaching the playoffs, which was higher than Detroit’s 40% probability for a postseason berth.

The simulations after the trade don’t show dramatic improvements for either team. Actually, both teams look to have lower probabilities to reach the playoffs this season. The postseason probability for the Detroit Pistons look to be just under 38%. For the LA Clippers same number drops to 61%.

Clearly, both teams did not make this trade for its impact on the current season alone. This is a long-term move by both organizations, and AccuScore's simulations only further confirm that fact.

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