• Accuscore's MLB 2020 Championship Series Predictions

    Four teams remain in the MLB’s expanded playoffs 2020 and the no.1 seeds from both leagues are still going strong. The Yankees put up an admirable fight against the Tampa Bay Rays, but the American League regular season winners held their ground and took a late 2-1 victory in the deciding game 5 of the divisional series. While being touted as one of the best pitching squads in the league, before the decider it was the Rays hitters coming in strong and outscoring the Yankees heavies in high-scoring fixtures. Pitchers then got the job done in game 5.

    The lowest seeded team in the American League, Houston Astros sent Oakland Athletics packing, despite entering the playoffs with a losing record. Astros hitters found their form at the eleventh hour and blasted 33 runs against the A’s struggling pitchers allowing 3-1 win in the series. Astros pitching squad didn’t always impress, but with the firepower available, they seem capable of outscoring their opponents.

    The National League was much more predictable and both favorites, Dodgers and Braves blew through without much trouble, sweeping their respective opponents Padres and Marlins in three. The top of the line pitchers were impeccable through the series and solid hitting provided all-around overwhelming displays against the much weaker opponents. But now the top teams face each other and it will be a whole new ballgame.

    Accuscore's MLB 2020 Playoffs Predictions for Championship Series

    Accuscore’s Picks and Predictions

    The Dodgers are still favorites to go all the way, but the Braves are putting up a remarkable challenge. We raised Braves as one of the dark horses (odds of +1700) in the World Series race before the season and they still have a chance. In the simulations, Dodgers take the series with 60% probability, with 4-2 being the most likely result with 20% probability. There is a tiny ounce of value in picking the Braves to surprise the Dodgers, with odds of +184 | 2.84 available – the value is less than 5% but there it is and at least to start with, the sharp money is supporting Braves as well . Another value bet could be made for Dodgers winning the series in seven games, with odds of +500 | 6.00 available, but the value is less than 2% here.

    In the American League, it all seems very even throughout the simulations results. Rays are the favorites but only with a two-percent margin. We are likely to see six or more games with over 60% probability and it is going to be a thrilling series. The oddsmakers indicate Rays a clear favorite, so there’s a good opportunity to play against the house - like plenty of public bets seem to be - and take the Astros to end up in the World Series with odds of +140 | 2.40 available and some 6% of value to be gained compared to simulations and 48% probability to progress.For those loving the long shots, there’s some value in taking the Astros in five or six games, with odds of +800 | 9.00 and +750 | 8.50 – value is around 2-3% here.

    With the Championship Series being as close as it is, there’s not much value in picking the World Series winners as of yet – or rather, anymore. Dodgers and Rays are the clear favorites and if we’d have to pick, we would still go with the Dodgers. Their probability to win is around 37% and the odds indicate closer to 40%, so there is no value to be had at the moment. Besides, we already took that value at +335 earlier on!

  • Expert Betting Analysis: Dodgers vs D-Backs

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    MLB Thursday: LA Dodgers vs Arizona D-Backs – Analyst Picks

    With 80 wins already recorded on the season, the LA Dodgers head into Thursday's matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks playing like title-level squad, making it impossible to keep pace with them in the standings. Their newest addition in Yu Darvish gets his second start for the Dodgers, matched up across from Arizona's Anthony Banda.

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    Betting Trends

    • The Dodgers are 44-8 in their last 52 overall.
    • The Dodgers are 44-8 in their last 52 games on grass.
    • The Dodgers are 43-8 in their last 51 games as a favorite.
    • The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 Thu. games.
    • The Diamondbacks are 41-18 in their last 59 home games.

    All of Today's MLB Picks: AccuScore's Baseball Picks

    Trends vs AccuScore Sim Data

    We’re always interested when we our simulation data goes against recent betting trends or Vegas odds makers. That’s exactly what we’ve got in tonight’smatchup with recent trends suggesting the UNDER on the total (9). The UNDER is 7-2 in Arizona’s last nine Thursday games as an underdog.

    AccuScore sim data has the OVER as a two-star (out of four) hot trend, with about 54 percent of sims going OVER 9.

    Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Expert Picks

    Vegas vs AccuScore

    Despite the Dodgers playing at a ridiculous level right now, AccuScore sim data suggests a whole lot more value on the home ‘dogs than to Vegas odds. Arizona’s getting +170 on the money line at the time of publication, indicating about a 37 percent chance of winning. AccuScore sim data, however, has Arizona winning close to 49 percent of sims.

    AccuScore would have listed the home ‘dogs at about +105, suggesting some good value on the +170 listed in Vegas.

  • MLB Opening Day: Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins

    The 2018 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season officially kicks off this week on March 29. With all 30 MLB teams in action Thursday, let's take a closer look at two games and where the value's at. This year's opening day will be the earliest start to the season in league history. 

     
    Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins
     
    Let's be honest -- it always comes down to the pitching matchups. The first game we'll look at is the Miami Marlins hosting the Chicago Cubs, with Jon Lester and Jose Urena up for their respective squads. 
     
    What to Watch For
     
    Marlins' Main Man: Jose Urena had a strong campaign last year, finishing with a 3.82 ERA and a 14-7 record. He's now entering his fourth year in the majors, and what will be important to keep an eye on is his opposing batting average. He was at .238 last year, the best of his career, and among the lowest in the league. 
     
    Urena is projected to finish with 5 innings pitched Thursday, giving up 3.0 earned runs and about 6 hits; he averages five-to-six strikeouts per simulated matchup. 
     
    It's important to keep in mind the Miami rotation last season recorded a 4.82 ERA and had just 34 saves in 61 opportunities. That 4.82 ERA was No. 26 of 30 in the major. 
     
    Chicago's Bats: Last season, the Cubs' batting lineup recorded a .255 average.
     
    Albert Almora and Kris Bryant lead the way in sims for Chicago, with Almora averaging 1.6 hits per sim with 4.5 at bats per sim, and Bryant with 1.4 hits per sim with 4.2 at bats per sim. Bryant does have a higher probability of hitting a homerun, averaging 0.22 HRs per sim compared to Almora's 0.14. The Cubs average 5.3 runs score per sim, compared to 4.9 for the Marlins. 
     
    Key Betting Trends
    • The Cubs are 1-4 straight up (SU) in their last five games going back to last year.
    • The Cubs are 7-3 SU in its last 10 games vs the Marlins.
    • The Cubs are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against the Marlins.
    Analyst's Pick
     
    Miami.
     
    Vegas opened this matchup with the Cubs as money line favorites (-192) and the total set at 8. The Marlins are getting +180 on the money line, indicating about a 35.7 chance of winning for Miami. They, however, win over 46 percent of simulated matchups, providing a ton of value on them in most books.
     
    The Cubs are 2-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last 8 games on the road vs the Marlins. 
  • MLB Opening Day: San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers

    The 2018 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season officially kicks off this week on March 29. With all 30 MLB teams in action Thursday, let's take a closer look at two games and where the value's at. This year's opening day will be the earliest start to the season in league history.
     
    San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers
     
    Clayton Kershaw against divisional rivals on opening day? Sign us up. 
     
    What to Watch For
     
    Dodgers' Leadoff Man and Center Fielder: Chris Taylor will become an all-too-familiar name for Dodgers fans as he is projected to lead off for the home side on opening day. He actually opened 2017 in the minors before a breakout season and is locked in at leadoff -- largely becuse of his power and athleticism. 
     
    Taylor averages about 4 at bats per sim, 1.4 hits per sim, and 0.8 runs per sim; he has the second-lowest probability of hitting a homerun amongst the top seven batters in the Dodgers lineup. 
     
    Injuries: Dodgers' Justin Turner is currently on the disabled list and is expected to be out for 1-to-2 months with a broken wrist. 
     
    Projected Leaders: Andrew McCutchen, batting at the No. 3 spot for SF, has the highest probability of hitting a HR for his side. He averages 0.15 HRs per sim, averaging 0.5 RBIs per sim. For the Dodgers, it's Cody Bellinger. He averages 0.30 HRs per sim, and 0.7 RBIs per sim. 
     
    Key Betting Trends
    • The Giants are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Giants' last 15 games going back to last season.
    • San Francisco is 2-6 straight up (SU) in its last 8 games on the road going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Giants' last 6 games on the road going back to last season.
    • The Giants are 1-4 ATS and SU in their last five games vs the Dodgers going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Giants' last five games vs the Dodgers.
    • The Giants are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road vs the Dodgers.
    Analyst's Pick
     
    The UNDER.
     
    We've got Kershaw on the mound, plus the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Giants' last 5 games on the road vs the Dodgers.
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