Analyst Pick: Dodgers vs Diamondbacks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks – 4th of July

July 4th MLB action features a slate of must-watch games, but the night caps off in Los Angeles as the 52-31 Arizona Diamondbacks head to Chavez Ravine for a matchup with Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. L.A. is a home favorite, listed at about -270 on the money line, with Arizona getting +245.

Don't let the odds fool you - this matchup projects to be a lot more competitive than initial Vegas odds indicate. The Diamondbacks have 18 of their 31 losses on the road this season, but enter this series with tons of momentum, coming off a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers have a 2.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks in the NL West heading into Tuesday's matchup.

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Betting Trends

• The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 road games.
• The Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 overall.
• The Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 games on grass.
• The UNDER is 7-1 in the Dodgers' last 8 games following a loss.
• The Dodgers are 46-15 in their last 61 home games.
• The Dodgers are 25-9 in their last 34 games played on a Tuesday.

What to Watch For

Kershaw makes his 18th start of the season, with Patrick Corbin (6-7, 4.76 ERA) on the mound for Arizona. Corbin got the start against the Dodgers on April 15, giving up 5 runs (3 earned) in six innings of a 8-4 loss. Kershaw -- despite his 12-2 record with a 2.32 ERA on the season -- has struggled this year. Well, relatively. He has already given up a career-high 17 home runs, but seems to be getting back on track in his past few starts.

Keep an eye on Dodgers catcher and second baseman Austin Barnes. He had a strong outing against Corbin last time around with a HR against the lefty. Barnes heads into Tuesday's matchup after putting up 7 RBIs and 2 HRs on Friday vs San Diego.

Best Bet(s)

Looking at who's on the mound for L.A., it's tough to suggest any pick other than the Dodgers winning this game. The Dodgers win approximately 65 percent of simulated matchups.

Trends vs Data

AccuScore sim data suggets taking the OVER in this game - the total combined score goes OVER 7.5 in over 57 percent of simulations.

Recent trends between these two teams, however, suggest the opposite. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Diamondbacks' last 6 games when playing on the road against the Dodgers.

With Arizona's relative struggles on the road and Kershaw on the mound, my lean would be on the UNDER.

Dodgers vs Giants: Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Dodgers vs Giants: Sunday Analyst Pick

The San Francisco Giants are already looking ahead to next season, already 25 games below .500 and in no position to make matters better in 2017. So for now, they'll look to get their satisfaction by trying to slow down the rival Los Angeles Dodgers who are now 33.5 games ahead of the Giants in the standings.

Madison Bumgarner (1-4, 3.38 ERA) for SF; Ryu Hyun-Jin (3-6, 4.17 ERA) for the Dodgers.

Let's take a look at there there might be some value in this contest.

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Preview

Burgarner gets the start in place of right hander Matt Cain, and it'll take one of his legendary performances to get the win Sunday. The Giants were limited to just four hits and 1 run on Saturday, with their bullpen being practically non-existant - pitching just 2 2/3 innings so far in the series.

For the Dodgers, all eyes will be on Ryu and whether or not he can manage the game well enough to allow the L.A. offense to take over. In his only start against the Giants this year, he allowed 1 run over 6 innings in 1-2 loss.

The Dodgers are heavily favored on the money line (-265) and rightfully so. The Dodgers win close to 67 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

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Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sims

Is the -265 worth the odds on the money line? While the Giants are expected to keep the game close, a look at the probabilities confirms the confidence AccuSore data has in the home side.

A -265 on the money line indicates about a 72-to-73 percent chance of winning. AccuScore data -- completely separate from Vegas odds -- has that winning probability around 67 percent. As such, AccuScore would have listed the Dodgers' ML odds at about -205, making the -265 not very attractive.

Betting Trends vs AccuScore Hot Trends
• SF is 1-6 in its last seven vs the NL West.
• Dodgers are 44-12 in their last 56 home games.
• The OVER is 7-2-2 in SF's last 11 Sunday games.
• The OVER is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last five home games.

Here we're specifically focused on the total. Recent trends as you can see suggest taking the OVER. The Dodgers get runs on the board at home -- clearly -- and Ryu on the mound indicates the Giants' bats might get going. Ryu has averaged just 5.1 innings pitched in the last month, struggling to go deep in his starts.

Whereas Vegas has their total set at 9, AccuScore data actually has it at 8, indicating a pick on the UNDER. The total combined score stays below 9 in over 53 percent of simulations, a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The majority of Ryu's games this season have finished below the total.

Analyst's Pick
Dodgers get the sweep, and the UNDER.