Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Dodgers vs Giants: Sunday Analyst Pick
The San Francisco Giants are already looking ahead to next season, already 25 games below .500 and in no position to make matters better in 2017. So for now, they'll look to get their satisfaction by trying to slow down the rival Los Angeles Dodgers who are now 33.5 games ahead of the Giants in the standings.
Madison Bumgarner (1-4, 3.38 ERA) for SF; Ryu Hyun-Jin (3-6, 4.17 ERA) for the Dodgers.
Let's take a look at there there might be some value in this contest.
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Burgarner gets the start in place of right hander Matt Cain, and it'll take one of his legendary performances to get the win Sunday. The Giants were limited to just four hits and 1 run on Saturday, with their bullpen being practically non-existant - pitching just 2 2/3 innings so far in the series.
For the Dodgers, all eyes will be on Ryu and whether or not he can manage the game well enough to allow the L.A. offense to take over. In his only start against the Giants this year, he allowed 1 run over 6 innings in 1-2 loss.
The Dodgers are heavily favored on the money line (-265) and rightfully so. The Dodgers win close to 67 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
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Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sims
Is the -265 worth the odds on the money line? While the Giants are expected to keep the game close, a look at the probabilities confirms the confidence AccuSore data has in the home side.
A -265 on the money line indicates about a 72-to-73 percent chance of winning. AccuScore data -- completely separate from Vegas odds -- has that winning probability around 67 percent. As such, AccuScore would have listed the Dodgers' ML odds at about -205, making the -265 not very attractive.
Betting Trends vs AccuScore Hot Trends
• SF is 1-6 in its last seven vs the NL West.
• Dodgers are 44-12 in their last 56 home games.
• The OVER is 7-2-2 in SF's last 11 Sunday games.
• The OVER is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last five home games.
Here we're specifically focused on the total. Recent trends as you can see suggest taking the OVER. The Dodgers get runs on the board at home -- clearly -- and Ryu on the mound indicates the Giants' bats might get going. Ryu has averaged just 5.1 innings pitched in the last month, struggling to go deep in his starts.
Whereas Vegas has their total set at 9, AccuScore data actually has it at 8, indicating a pick on the UNDER. The total combined score stays below 9 in over 53 percent of simulations, a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The majority of Ryu's games this season have finished below the total.
Dodgers get the sweep, and the UNDER.