Written by Rohit Ghosh
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LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks – 4th of July
July 4th MLB action features a slate of must-watch games, but the night caps off in Los Angeles as the 52-31 Arizona Diamondbacks head to Chavez Ravine for a matchup with Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. L.A. is a home favorite, listed at about -270 on the money line, with Arizona getting +245.
Don't let the odds fool you - this matchup projects to be a lot more competitive than initial Vegas odds indicate. The Diamondbacks have 18 of their 31 losses on the road this season, but enter this series with tons of momentum, coming off a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers have a 2.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks in the NL West heading into Tuesday's matchup.
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• The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 road games.
• The Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 overall.
• The Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 games on grass.
• The UNDER is 7-1 in the Dodgers' last 8 games following a loss.
• The Dodgers are 46-15 in their last 61 home games.
• The Dodgers are 25-9 in their last 34 games played on a Tuesday.
What to Watch For
Kershaw makes his 18th start of the season, with Patrick Corbin (6-7, 4.76 ERA) on the mound for Arizona. Corbin got the start against the Dodgers on April 15, giving up 5 runs (3 earned) in six innings of a 8-4 loss. Kershaw -- despite his 12-2 record with a 2.32 ERA on the season -- has struggled this year. Well, relatively. He has already given up a career-high 17 home runs, but seems to be getting back on track in his past few starts.
Keep an eye on Dodgers catcher and second baseman Austin Barnes. He had a strong outing against Corbin last time around with a HR against the lefty. Barnes heads into Tuesday's matchup after putting up 7 RBIs and 2 HRs on Friday vs San Diego.
Looking at who's on the mound for L.A., it's tough to suggest any pick other than the Dodgers winning this game. The Dodgers win approximately 65 percent of simulated matchups.
Trends vs Data
AccuScore sim data suggets taking the OVER in this game - the total combined score goes OVER 7.5 in over 57 percent of simulations.
Recent trends between these two teams, however, suggest the opposite. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Diamondbacks' last 6 games when playing on the road against the Dodgers.
With Arizona's relative struggles on the road and Kershaw on the mound, my lean would be on the UNDER.