2017 College Football Win Totals - Expert Picks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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2017 NCAA Football Win Totals, and Analyst Picks

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With a new season ready to kick off, we decided to take a look at some of the top Over/Under win total lines and pick Analyst picks for the 2017 College Football Season:

Alabama Crimson Tide O/U wins: 10.5

All eyes will be on sophomore QB Jalen Hurts as the Crimson Tide are projected to do what they do every year -- win double-digit regular season games. They're favored in every scheduled game this season, with ESPN power index indicating they have greater than a 75 percent chance of winning in 10 of the 12 simulated regular season contests.

Analyst's Pick: OVER

Clemson Tigers O/U wins: 9.5

Anyone expecting the Tigers to have a major drop off better think again. No Deshaun Watson, no problem as the roster brings back a slew of offensive and defensive lineman to ensure continuity. QB Kelly Bryant should be just fine, even if all he has to do is manage games and let the defense take over. With guys like Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence, Clemson's defense just might be the best unit on that side of the ball nationwide.

Analyst's Pick: OVER

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Washington Huskies O/U wins: 10.5

Led by QB Jake Browning, the Huskies are projected to have a strong regular season campaign -- despite losing John Ross to the NFL. They have a well-balanced receiving corps, a strong running attack with RB Myles Gaskin, and recruited well in the offseason to make up for some losses on the defensive side of the ball.

Analyst's Pick: OVER

USC Trojans O/U wins: 9.5

With five starters -- three offensive lineman and two receivers -- from last year's starting lineup gone, can QB Sam Darnold keep up his level of play? Analyst's Pick: UNDER

Michigan Wolverines O/U wins: 9.5

This is an interesting one. In the same way other programs are benefited by returning certain starters, the Wolverines should struggle since only two of 13 starters on the defensive side return this season. The roster's just so well coached, though, and given the balance they had last season in the air and on the ground, it's tough to pick against them.

Analyst's Pick: OVER

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Analyst Pick: Dodgers vs Diamondbacks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks – 4th of July

July 4th MLB action features a slate of must-watch games, but the night caps off in Los Angeles as the 52-31 Arizona Diamondbacks head to Chavez Ravine for a matchup with Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. L.A. is a home favorite, listed at about -270 on the money line, with Arizona getting +245.

Don't let the odds fool you - this matchup projects to be a lot more competitive than initial Vegas odds indicate. The Diamondbacks have 18 of their 31 losses on the road this season, but enter this series with tons of momentum, coming off a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers have a 2.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks in the NL West heading into Tuesday's matchup.

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Betting Trends

• The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 road games.
• The Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 overall.
• The Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 games on grass.
• The UNDER is 7-1 in the Dodgers' last 8 games following a loss.
• The Dodgers are 46-15 in their last 61 home games.
• The Dodgers are 25-9 in their last 34 games played on a Tuesday.

What to Watch For

Kershaw makes his 18th start of the season, with Patrick Corbin (6-7, 4.76 ERA) on the mound for Arizona. Corbin got the start against the Dodgers on April 15, giving up 5 runs (3 earned) in six innings of a 8-4 loss. Kershaw -- despite his 12-2 record with a 2.32 ERA on the season -- has struggled this year. Well, relatively. He has already given up a career-high 17 home runs, but seems to be getting back on track in his past few starts.

Keep an eye on Dodgers catcher and second baseman Austin Barnes. He had a strong outing against Corbin last time around with a HR against the lefty. Barnes heads into Tuesday's matchup after putting up 7 RBIs and 2 HRs on Friday vs San Diego.

Best Bet(s)

Looking at who's on the mound for L.A., it's tough to suggest any pick other than the Dodgers winning this game. The Dodgers win approximately 65 percent of simulated matchups.

Trends vs Data

AccuScore sim data suggets taking the OVER in this game - the total combined score goes OVER 7.5 in over 57 percent of simulations.

Recent trends between these two teams, however, suggest the opposite. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Diamondbacks' last 6 games when playing on the road against the Dodgers.

With Arizona's relative struggles on the road and Kershaw on the mound, my lean would be on the UNDER.

Analyst Pick: Red Sox vs Blue Jays

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Analyst Pick: Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

The Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays Monday in a matchup that opened with the home side slightly favored at -130 on the money line (ML) in Vegas, indicating a 56.5 percentage chance of winning. The line settled to -123 at the time of publication, with the Blue Jays getting +113 money line odds. The total is set at 9.5.

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Pitching Matchup

Stroman heads into Monday's matchup with a 9-5 record and an ERA of 3.28. He has 93 strikeouts over the 112.1 innings he's pitched this season, allowing about 9.1 hits per 9 innings pitched. Toronto's bullpen hasn't been relatively as great with an ERA of 4.29. The team overall is No. 18 in the majors with an ERA of 4.57.

Boston's Eduard Rodriguez heads into this matchup with a 4-2 record and an ERA of 3.54. He has given up 49 hits in the 61 innings pitched this season, allowing about 7.2 hits per 9 innings pitched. He's backed up by a bullpen that has an ERA of just 3.08, with the team overall allowing 8.6 hits per nine innings. They're No. 3 in the majors with a team ERA of 3.79.

Key Stat No. 1: Boston is No. 2 in opponent strikeouts per walk at 1.98.

Key Stat No. 2: The Red Sox rank No. 2 of 30 MLB teams in opponent strikeouts per nine innings (7.12), a few ticks behind league-leading Houston (6.86).

Key Stat No. 3: Boston is No. 4 in terms opponent stolen base percentage; Toronto, on the other hand, is ranked No. 28 of 30 in the same category.

What to Watch For

Stroman has been fairly impressive this season for Toronto, entering this matchup after giving up just one run and six hits his last time out (July 8). He was favored slightly on the money line (-137) and came through for bettors. Batters are connecting on his pitches less than 32 percent of the time, and just a shade over 18 percent of his fly balls end up as HRs.

Betting Trends

Toronto is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.
• Toronto is 2-5 in their last 7 vs. the AL East.
• Toronto is 6-15 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Toronto is 6-13 in Stroman’s last 19 road starts.
• Boston is 11-4 in their last 15 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Boston is 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last five starts at home.
• The UNDER is 18-6-3 in Toronto's last 27 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• The UNDER is 6-2 in Boston's last eight home games.
• The UNDER is 4-0 in Rodriguez’s last 4 home starts.
• The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 22 starts vs. the AL East.
• The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two sides in Boston.

Analyst's Pick

Boston averages 4.8 runs per game in 2017; Toronto averages 4.16. The averages for this current season indicate a pick on the UNDER.

The Red Sox are struggling on offense over the last week or so, and best of all, the UNDER is a our-star AccuScore hot trend pick.

I'll take the UNDER.

Friday's Analyst Pick: Cardinals vs Pirates

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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MLB Friday: Cardinals at Pirates

Friday features a slate of MLB action and it's about time. Monday and Tuesday might have been entertaining in terms of fanfare, but regular game action means one thing - attractive wagering opportunities.

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Betting Trends

Let's take a look at a matchup and what stands out.

Cardinals @ Pirates | Friday, 4:05 PM Pacific

The Pittsburgh Pirates -- assuming weather doesn't become a factor -- will host the St. Louis Cardinals with the home side slightly favored (-120) and the total set at 8. The Cards have Mike Leake (6-7, 3.12 ERA) on the mound, matched up across from the Pirates' Gerrit Cole (7-7, 4.43).

From the St. Louis side, Leake enters the matchup with 74 strikeouts over his 109.2 innings pitched this season; he has given up 102 hits. He allows 8.4 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.96. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.12. As a team, St. Louis allows 8.5 hits per nine innings, striking out 8.4 batters. They are 6th in the league in team earned run average at 3.97.

For Pittsburgh, Cole has 94 strikeouts over the 107.2 innings he has pitched, giving up 113 hits.. He's also given up 113 hits. He allows 9.4 hits per nine innings. As a team, Pittsburgh is 12th in the league in team ERA 4.19.

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Analyst's Pick: Pittsburgh has a slight edge being at home, but their bullpen ranks No. 23 in the league in terms of giving up HRs. With AccuScore data heavily suggesting the UNDER, the lean is on the Cards and the UNDER. St. Louis is 7-2 straight up (SU) in their last nine against Pittsburgh.

Another trend that points towards going with AccuScore's St. Louis pick is the fact that Pittsburgh struggles after wins this season. They're 1-5 SU in their last six games after a win.

Cards get the slight upset win on the road with the total staying UNDER 8

Royals vs Orioles: Expert Analysis, Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles

The Kansas City Royals head to Oriole Park Monday for a matchup with Ubaldo Jimenez and the Baltimore Orioles, with the home side opening as slight underdogs on the money line (+113). Kansas City, with Danny Duffy set to start, opened at -123 on the money line, with the total set at 10.

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Pitching Matchup

Duffy (7-6) enters Monday's matchup with an ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.27. He gives up about 8.9 hits per nine innings, on pace with the rest of his team as the Royals as a whole allow 8.8 hits per nine innings. As a team, Kansas City is No. 11 in the majors with an ERA of 4.15. They have been extraordinary in terms of home runs (HR) given up, ranking No. 28 in the MLB with 108 allowed HRs.

Jimenez (4-7), with his ERA of 6.93 and a 1.56 WHIP, gives up about 9.9 hits per nine innings pitched, a stark difference when comparing to Duffy's numbers. He is on pace with his team, though, as Baltimore gives up the same 9.9 hits per nine innings as a team. They're No. 29 in the majors in team ERA (5.15), and have given up 154 HRs this season -- third most in the majors.

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data - Value on the Home 'Dog

We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data are on opposite sides of the money line. Whereas Vegas odds have Baltimore as slight home underdogs, the sim data has them as favorites -- indicating a pick on the Orioles.

The Orioles win about 51 percent of simulations, making the +105 odds at the time of publication fairly attractive.

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Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sims