Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Analyst Pick: Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
The Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays Monday in a matchup that opened with the home side slightly favored at -130 on the money line (ML) in Vegas, indicating a 56.5 percentage chance of winning. The line settled to -123 at the time of publication, with the Blue Jays getting +113 money line odds. The total is set at 9.5.
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Stroman heads into Monday's matchup with a 9-5 record and an ERA of 3.28. He has 93 strikeouts over the 112.1 innings he's pitched this season, allowing about 9.1 hits per 9 innings pitched. Toronto's bullpen hasn't been relatively as great with an ERA of 4.29. The team overall is No. 18 in the majors with an ERA of 4.57.
Boston's Eduard Rodriguez heads into this matchup with a 4-2 record and an ERA of 3.54. He has given up 49 hits in the 61 innings pitched this season, allowing about 7.2 hits per 9 innings pitched. He's backed up by a bullpen that has an ERA of just 3.08, with the team overall allowing 8.6 hits per nine innings. They're No. 3 in the majors with a team ERA of 3.79.
Key Stat No. 1: Boston is No. 2 in opponent strikeouts per walk at 1.98.
Key Stat No. 2: The Red Sox rank No. 2 of 30 MLB teams in opponent strikeouts per nine innings (7.12), a few ticks behind league-leading Houston (6.86).
Key Stat No. 3: Boston is No. 4 in terms opponent stolen base percentage; Toronto, on the other hand, is ranked No. 28 of 30 in the same category.
What to Watch For
Stroman has been fairly impressive this season for Toronto, entering this matchup after giving up just one run and six hits his last time out (July 8). He was favored slightly on the money line (-137) and came through for bettors. Batters are connecting on his pitches less than 32 percent of the time, and just a shade over 18 percent of his fly balls end up as HRs.
Toronto is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.
• Toronto is 2-5 in their last 7 vs. the AL East.
• Toronto is 6-15 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Toronto is 6-13 in Stroman’s last 19 road starts.
• Boston is 11-4 in their last 15 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Boston is 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last five starts at home.
• The UNDER is 18-6-3 in Toronto's last 27 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• The UNDER is 6-2 in Boston's last eight home games.
• The UNDER is 4-0 in Rodriguez’s last 4 home starts.
• The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 22 starts vs. the AL East.
• The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two sides in Boston.
Boston averages 4.8 runs per game in 2017; Toronto averages 4.16. The averages for this current season indicate a pick on the UNDER.
The Red Sox are struggling on offense over the last week or so, and best of all, the UNDER is a our-star AccuScore hot trend pick.
I'll take the UNDER.