Written by Rohit Ghosh
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AFC West – 2016 NFL Division Preview
Denver Broncos
The defending champions head into the 2016-2017 season led by a strong defense and an offense that should be able to do just enough to compete every night. Last season was proof the model works, and even with a few key losses, the defensive line in Denver is still one of the best.
More importantly, the best secondary in the league - led by Aquib Talib, Chris Harris, Bradley Robey - returns at full force.
Something to watch for as the season progresses is how the offensive line adjusts. Just how quickly that process unfolds will dictate how Denver fares towards the second half of the regular season.
What do the sims say? With the total number of wins set at 9 for Denver, it's best to stay away - at least based on AccuScore data. Denver wins exactly 9.0 games in season simulations.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City seems to be on the cusp every year. Despite starting last season's 1-5, the Chiefs somehow won 10 regular season games and won a postseason game.
Kansas City had a busy offseason, ultimately resigning their defensive stars in Eric Berry, Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali and Jaye Howard. The Chiefs' front seven will continue to be a reliable point of focus on the roster, thanks to Johnson, Hali and Howard. Throw in rookie Chris Jones from this last draft and Andy Reid's 3-4 defense should be able to stop the run as we've become accustomed to.
What will ultimately be the story this season is how Jamaal Charles runs the ball after returning from an ACL injury. With Alex Smith leading the way at QB, Jamaal Charles is the Chiefs' long big-play threat.
What do the sims say? Vegas has Kansas City's win total listed at 9.5. AccuScore suggests taking the UNDER on that total, with the Chiefs averaging about 8.4 wins in season sims.
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Oakland Raiders
The No. 1 problem Oakland has had in recent memory is their QB play - it's been subpar and there hasn't much glimmer of hope until Derek Carr's emergence last season.
From his rookie year to sophomore campaign, Carr jumped from 54 to 66-plus completion percentage against a rush, according to Pro Football Focus. He close to doubled his downfield throws as well, going up to 46-plus completion percentage on 20-plus yard throws.
What's making this situation glass half-full is the strength of the offensive line. Kelechi Osemele is key on the inside tackle and and Donald Penn's re-signing secured the left tackle spot. Penn was one of the best last season at that spot, giving up just "31 combined hurries in 644 snaps," according to Pro Football Focus.
What do the sims say? AccuScore sims would suggest taking the UNDER on the season total (8.5); the Raiders win 7.7 games on average in season sims.
San Diego Chargers
San Diego heads into the 2016-2017 season having won just four games the season prior. The Chargers followed up two nine-win seasons with last year's debacle. The offseason looked to be positive for San Diego, but is it enough to make them competitive on a weekly basis?
The biggest strength on the roster remains QB Philip Rivers. He has averaged 4,129 yards per season since taking over the QB job in 2006, has had a 2-1 TD-INT ratio and completed over 65 percent of his passes. Simply put, he's been consistently good and that won't change.
The problem, though, will be SD's offensive line and that sort of an issue can derail a team. It can be ranked as one of the worst in the league; the numbers from last season show the Chargers had the worst pass block in the entire league.
What do the sims say? UNDER, UNDER, UNDER. The sims say the Chargers finish as the No. 4 team in the AFC West.
